عوامل موثر بر احتمال طلاق در ایران با استفاده از روش داده‏ های شبه تابلویی

فصلنامه زن و جامعه

مقاله 6، دوره 11، شماره 41، اردیبهشت 1399، صفحه 129-150   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

زهرا میلا علمی^*

استاد/دانشگاه مازندران

تاریخ دریافت: 28 اردیبهشت 1398،  تاریخ بازنگری: 14 آذر 1398،  تاریخ پذیرش: 12 فروردین 1399 

چکیده

طلاق، زنگ خطر جدی است که هزینه به‏سامان سازی آن بیش از هزینه‏های مقابله با پیامدهای اجتماعی- اقتصادی و سیاسی آن است. از این‏رو، بررسی علل و پیامد آن و راه‏های برون‏رفت از آن باید در برنامه‏های سیاست‏گذاران کلان کشور باشد. در این مقاله صرفا با هدف درک بهتر از ارتباط میان آموزش و اشتغال زنان با طلاق، عوامل اقتصادی اجتماعی موثر بر طلاق در سطح استان‏های ایران با استفاده از ریزداده‏های طرح هزینه-درآمد خانوار شهری در سال ۱۳۹۳ و کاربرد روش داده‏های شبه‏تابلویی بررسی شده‎‏است. داده‏های اولیه شامل 18885 خانوار شهری بوده‏است که در مرحله اول زیر بخشی از داده‏ها شامل سرپرستان خانوار مرد و زنِ مطلقه و متاهل (۱۶۵۰۳ مشاهده) انتخاب و در سطح استان‏ها دسته‏بندی شدند. براساس داده‏های اولیه و دسته‏بندی شده، توصیف داده‏ای صورت گرفت. در مرحله بعد با روش داده‏های شبه‏تابلویی دیتون(۱۹۸۵) و قزوانی و گواید(2001)، مدل تحقیق با لحاظ سن و سواد سرپرست خانوار با تاکید بر آموزش و اشتغال زنان،  اندازه و درآمد خانوار، شاغل بودن سرپرست خانوار، به روش حداکثر درستنمایی برآورد گردید. براساس نتایج حاصل از برآورد، اندازه خانوار، اشتغال سرپرست خانوار و با سوادی او و درآمد خانوار احتمال طلاق را کاهش می‏دهد در حالی‏که اثر تحصیلات عالی برای زنان و اشتغال آنان بر احتمال طلاق مثبت بوده‏است. هم‏چنن رابطه سن و طلاق U وارونه است. یعنی در سال‏های اولیه زندگی مشترک و سال‏های انتهایی آن، احتمال طلاق کمتر از سال‏های میانی زندگی سرپرست خانوار است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

طلاق؛ استان‏های ایران؛ مدل لاجیت؛ داده‏های شبه‏تابلویی؛ ریز داده‏های طرح هزینه درآمد خانوار

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effective factors on Probability of Divorce in Iran with Using Pseudo-Panel Data Method

نویسندگان [English]

ZahraMila Elmi

Professor/University of Mazandaran

چکیده [English]

In this paper, with the purpose of better understanding of the relationship between education and the employment of women with their divorce, the socio-economic factors which affect on divorce are investigated in the provinces of Iran by using the micro data of Household Expenditure and Income Survey in 2014 which covers 18885 households and the application of pseudo-panel data method. At first step, a subset of the data was collected include male and female who were divorced or married (16503 breadwinner) and categorized them on the base of the provinces. Data was analyzed based on the initial classification. Then On the base of Deaton(1985), and Goaed and Ghazouani (2001) the logit model of this research with pseudo-panel data and including explanatory variables; household size, the occupation of the head and his/her literacy and household income, age and age square of head, with emphasis of female education and occupation; was regressed by using the Maximum Likelihood method.
On the base of results, household size, the occupation of the head and his/her literacy and household income reduces the probability of divorce, while the effect of women's higher education on the probability of divorce is positive. Also, the relationship between age and divorce is U inverted. It means in the early years of their household common life, and in the latter years, the probability of divorce is less than the average age of the head of household.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Divorce, Provinces of Iran, Logit Model, quasi-panel data, The micro data of Household Expenditure and Income Survey

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