عوامل مؤثر بر ریسک تولید انار با رویکردی به فقر(مطالعه‌ی موردی: روستاهای بخش مرکزی شهرستان شهرضا)

فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

مقاله 1، دوره 4، شماره 15، مهر و آبان 1391، صفحه 21-38   

نویسندگان

سیدابوالقاسم مرتضوی^{* 1}؛ مهدی قربانی²؛ پژمان اعلایی بروجنی³؛ علیرضا علیپور⁴

¹استاد اقتصاد کشاورزی،دانشکده کشاورزی،دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

²دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی،دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

³دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد کشاوری دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

⁴دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

تاریخ دریافت: 25 آذر 1394،  تاریخ پذیرش: 25 آذر 1394 

چکیده

فقر یک ویژگی مهم اقتصادی- اجتماعی اثرگذار بر فعالیت‌های اقتصادی کشاورزان روستایی است و از آنجایی که ویژگی‌های اقتصادی- اجتماعی بر رفتار ریسک‌گریزی کشاورزان مؤثر است؛ بررسی ریسک با رویکرد فقر اهمیت به‌سزایی دارد. در مطالعه‌ی حاضر میزان ریسک نهاده‌های تولیدی محصول انار، با استفاده از روش تخمین حداکثر راستنمایی(MLE) و برآورد تابع تولید تصادفی تعمیم‌یافته‌ی محصول در روستاهای بخش مرکزی شهرستان شهرضا تحلیل گردید. وضعیت فقر کشاورزان مورد مطالعه، توسط شاخص فقر در سه گروه ریسک‌گریزی کم، متوسط و زیاد بررسی گردید. سپس براساس کشش نهاده‌ای تابع تولید، پارامتر ریسک‌گریزی محاسبه و تأثیر ویژگی‌های اقتصادی- اجتماعی انارکاران بر آن مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. همچنین، فاصله‌ی درآمدی کشاورزان از خط فقر مطلق به‌عنوان طبقه‌ی فقری آنها در نظر گرفته شد و به‌عنوان متغیر کیفی مؤثر بر پارامتر ریسک‌گریزی منظور گردید. کشاورزان مورد مطالعه از طریق نمونه‌گیری خوشه‌ای دو ‌مرحله‌ای از انار‌کاران روستاهای بخش مرکزی شهرستان شهرضا انتخاب گردیدند. نتایج حاصل از تخمین نشان داد که نهاده‌های سطح زیرکشت و کودهای شیمیایی دارای تأثیر مثبت بر ریسک تولید انار هستند و میزان آب مصرفی، کود دامی و نیروی کار نیز دارای اثرگذاری منفی بر ریسک تولید آن می‌باشند. علاوه بر این فقر، عامل فزاینده و تعداد افراد خانواده و سطح زیرکشت عامل کاهنده‌ی پارامتر ریسک‌گریزی کشاورزان شناخته شدند. در نهایت پیشنهاد گردید که با هدف مدیریت ریسک بهره‌برداران، سیاست‌های تأمین نهاده‌های کود فسفات و نیترات در زمان مناسب، گسترش بیمه‌ی محصول و کاهش فقر اعمال شود.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

پارامتر ریسک‌گریزی؛ تابع تولید تصادفی تعمیم‌یافته؛ شاخص فقر

عنوان مقاله [English]

Factors Affecting the Pomegranate’s Production Risk with Emphasizing on Poverty(As a Case Study:Villages of Shahreza Central Region)

نویسندگان [English]

S. A. Mortazavi¹؛ M. Ghorbani²؛ P. Borujeni³؛ A. Alipour⁴

چکیده [English]

Poverty is an important socio – economic feature that affects the economic activities of rural farmers; since the socio – economic characteristics are effective on farmers’ risk aversion behavior, risk assessment becomes more important with the consideration of poverty. In this study, inputs risk of Pomegranate production in the villages of Shahreza’s central region were analyzed, using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and generalized stochastic production function. Poverty status of farmers was examined, in the three groups with low, medium and high-risk aversion, by calculating the poverty index. Then the risk aversion parameter was calculated, based on input elasticity of production function, and the effect of socio - economic characteristics of farmers on it was evaluated. Also, the gap between farmers’ income and absolute poverty line was considered as their poverty category, which was intended as the dummy variable affecting the risk aversion parameter. The farmers under studying were selected through two-stage cluster sampling of Pomegranate farmers in villages of Shahreza’s central region. Results of the estimation show that inputs of cultivation areas and fertilizers have positive effects on pomegranate production risk and the amount of water; manure and labor have negative effects on it. In addition, poverty was recognized as an increasingly and family size and cultivation area were recognized as reducer factors on risk aversion parameter. Finally, it was suggested to applying the policies of providing phosphate and nitrate fertilizers on the suitable time, extending product insurance and reducing poverty to achieving the aim of risk management for producers.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Risk Aversion Parameter, Generalized Stochastic Production Function, the Poverty Index

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