ارزیابی بلندمدت استراتژی‌های مدیریت دام در شرایط خشکسالی(مطالعه موردی: عشایر استان فارس)

فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

مقاله 5، دوره 4، شماره 15، مهر و آبان 1391، صفحه 113-142   

نویسندگان

مهرداد باقری^{* 1}؛ منصور زیبایی²؛ عبدالکریم اسماعیلی²

¹دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز

²دانشیار بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز

تاریخ دریافت: 25 آذر 1394،  تاریخ پذیرش: 25 آذر 1394 

چکیده

خشکسالی و نوسانات آب و هوایی مهم‌ترین چالش های مدیریت دام- مرتع برای دامداران عشایری است که عمدتا به مراتع طبیعی وابسته هستند. بنابراین بررسی شیوه‌های مدیریتی تولیدکنندگان دام در طول دوره‌های خشکسالی بسیار حیاتی است. هدف این مقاله، ارزیابی استراتژی‌های مدیریت دام شامل نقدکردن(فروش) جزیی دام و خرید علوفه تکمیلی در شرایط خشکسالی برای دامداران عشایری است. بدین منظور از مدل برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی چند دوره‌ای با در نظر گرفتن روند پویای تعداد دام استفاده شد. داده‌های مورد استفاده با تکمیل پرسشنامه از عشایر با روش نمونه‌گیری تصادفی چندمرحله‌ای و از اداره‌ی امور عشایر فارس جمع‌آوری شد. نتایج نشان داد که استراتژی خرید علوفه درآمد ناخالص بزرگتری نسبت به استراتژی نقد کردن دام دارد. اما این استراتژی نیازمند هزینه‌ی اضافی بالایی برای خرید علوفه است و در شرایطی که خشکسالی گسترده اتفاق می‌افتد، هزینه‌های اضافی منجر به کاهش سود خالص در همه‌ی سناریوها و ریسک بیشتر نسبت به سناریوهای استراتژی نقد کردن گله می‌شود. بهرحال، استراتژی خرید علوفه در خشکسالی‌های طولانی سود منفی نسبت به استراتژی فروش دام دارد و فشار تخریب مراتع را نیز شدت می‌بخشد. استراتژی نقد کردن دام گرایش به مخاطره و استرس‌های مالی کمتری به‌طور بالقوه نسبت به استراتژی خرید علوفه دارد و در طول خشکسالی طولانی بهترین بازده خالص را نسبت به استراتژی خرید علوفه برای غلبه بر محدودیت عرضه علوفه ایجاد می‌کند. بنابراین براساس نتایج، در بلندمدت استراتژی نقد کردن جزئی دام توصیه می‌شود.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

مدیریت خشکسالی؛ برنامه ریزی ریاضی چنددوره ای؛ نقدکردن گله؛ مدیریت دام؛ عشایر؛ استان فارس

عنوان مقاله [English]

Long Term Evaluation of Livestock Management Strategies in Drought Conditions: Case Study of Nomads in Fars Province

نویسندگان [English]

M. Bagheri¹؛ M. Zibaei²؛ A.K. Esmaeili²

چکیده [English]

Droughts and climatic fluctuations are the most important challenges of the range-livestock management for ranchers of nomadic which largely depend on natural rangeland. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate livestock management strategies including partial liquidation and purchasing additional feed during periods of drought for nomadic ranchers. For this purpose, a multi-period, linear programming model coupled with the dynamic process of animals was applied. The data are collected by questionnaire completion of chosen sample into nomadic communities with multi-stage random sampling method and by Affairs Organization of Nomads Fars province. Results indicate that purchasing additional feed is able to carry larger herds during the drought. Therefore purchasing additional forage has a larger gross income than partial liquidation of livestock but requires additional costs for purchasing additional feed as compared with partial liquidation strategy. These additional costs lead to decreased net returns in all scenarios and are more risky than partial liquidation scenarios when extended drought occurs. However, the purchasing additional feed has negative impact on profitability compared to partial liquidation of livestock in the long run drought and increase degradation intensity of rangelands. The partial liquidation of livestock tends to be less risky and create potentially less financial stress than purchasing additional feed and during drought results in better net returns than purchasing feed to overcome constrained forage supplies. Therefore base on the results, in the long run partial liquidation of livestock is recommended.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

drought management, Multi Period Mathematical Programming, Herd Liquidation, Livestock Management, Nomadic, Fars province

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