اثر متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان بر درآمد بخش کشاورزی ایران

فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

مقاله 4، دوره 4، شماره 13، فروردین و اردیبهشت 1391، صفحه 65-85   

نویسندگان

هادی ربیعی^{* 1}؛ ماشاا... سالارپور²؛ محمود صبوحی صابونی³

¹دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل

²استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل

³دانشیار اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل

تاریخ دریافت: 26 آذر 1394،  تاریخ پذیرش: 26 آذر 1394 

چکیده

امروزه تصور اقتصادی بدون استفاده از ابزارهای سیاست گذاری و مداخله سیاست گذاران تقریباً غیرممکن به نظر می رسد، لذا آنچه اهمیت دارد کاهش هزینه های ناشی از سیاست ها و افزایش کارایی آنهاست. بخش کشاورزی با دیگر بخش ها در اقتصاد داخلی وابسته است و به کارگیری و اجرای سیاست های کلان اقتصادی از سوی دولتمردان به طرق مختلف بر فعالیت بخش های گوناگون اقتصادی اثر می گذارد. در این تحقیق اثرات کوتاه و بلندمدت تغییر در متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان شامل قیمت محصولات کشاورزی، نرخ بهره، نرخ ارز، حجم پول، تولید ناخالص داخلی و یارانه بر درآمد بخش کشاورزی ایران در یک چارچوب همگرایی مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. بدین منظور، مدل همگرایی یوهانسون با داده های سالانه 1387-1355 به کار گرفته شد. نتایج برآورد الگو نشان داد که رابطه تعادلی بلندمدت بین متغیرهای اقتصاد کلان منتخب و درآمد بخش کشاورزی وجود دارد. نرخ بهره و نرخ ارز در کوتاه و بلندمدت، به ترتیب رابطه منفی و مثبت با درآمد بخش کشاورزی دارد که از لحاظ تئوری قابل انتظار است. همچنین قیمت محصولات کشاورزی و حجم نقدینگی در بلندمدت اثر منفی، اما در کوتاه مدت اثر مثبت بر درآمد بخش کشاورزی دارند. علاوه بر این یافته های مطالعه بیان کرد که یارانه اعطایی به این بخش اثر معنی داری بر درآمد کشاورزان نداشته است.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

قیمت محصول؛ نرخ ارز؛ نرخ بهره؛ درآمد بخش کشاورزی؛ همگرایی یوهانسون

عنوان مقاله [English]

Effect of macroeconomic variables on the Iran agricultural sector income

نویسندگان [English]

H. Rabiei¹؛ M. Salarpour²؛ M. Sabouhi Saboni³

چکیده [English]

Now seems almost impossible, imagine an economy without the use of policy tools and intervention policy makers. So, what is important is cost reduction resulting from the policies and increasing their efficiency. Agricultural sector with other sectors in the domestic economy is dependent, and application and performance macro-economic policies by the government affects on different parts of economic activity in different ways. This study examines the short and long-run effects of changes in macroeconomic variables, including agricultural commodity prices, interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, GDP and subsidies on the Iran's agricultural sector income in a cointegration framework. For this purpose, is used from Johansen Model with annual data for 1976– 2008. Results show that there exist the long-run equilibrium relationships among selected macroeconomic variables and income agricultural sector. Interest rate and exchange rate, that could be expected Theoretically, have in the short and long-run respectively, negative and positive relationship with income agricultural sector. Also, the prices of agricultural commodities and money supply have in the long term negative effect, but in the short term positive effect on income agricultural sector. The results showed that the payment subsidy to the agricultural sector has not significant effect on income farmers
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

commodity price, Exchange Rate, interest rate, income agricultural sector, Johansen Cointegration

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