بررسی تاثیر کاهش قیمت جهانی کالاهای کشاورزی بر تراز بازرگانی

فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

مقاله 2، دوره 2، شماره 8، آذر و دی 1389، صفحه 11-48   

نویسندگان

حسین صادقی¹؛ بهرام سحابی¹؛ مجید صباغ کرمانی¹؛ علی قنبری¹؛ محمد حسن زاده^{* 2}

¹عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.

²دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.

تاریخ دریافت: 28 آذر 1394،  تاریخ پذیرش: 28 آذر 1394 

چکیده

بحران مالی سال 2008 ، اقتصاد بسیاری از کشورها را تحت تاثیر قرار داد و باعث کاهش قابل توجه رشد اقتصاد جهانی شد. با گذشت زمان بخشهای گوناگون اقتصاد نیز تحت تاثیر قرار گرفت و با کاهش سطح تقاضا، قیمت جهانی کالاها کاهش یافت. این مقاله با استفاده از مدل تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه اثر کاهش قیمت جهانی کالاهای کشاورزی را بر تراز بازرگانی بخش کشاورزی ایران مورد بررسی قرار می دهد. نتایج بررسی نشان می دهد که کاهش قیمت جهانی کالاهای کشاورزی اثر منفی بر تراز بازرگانی تمامی محصولات کشاورزی بجز گندم، برخی نباتات صنعتی و محصولات جنگلی دارد. در مجموع تراز بازرگانی بخش کشاورزی ایران در نتیجهی کاهش قیمت ها آسیب دید که مهمترین علت آن کاهش صادرات محصولات باغی بوده است.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها

قیمتهای جهانی؛ کالاهای کشاورزی؛ تراز بازرگانی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Impact of Decrease in World Agricultural Prices onAgricultural Trade Balance of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

H. Sadeghi¹؛ B. Sahabi¹؛ M. S.Kermani¹؛ A. Ghanbari¹؛ M. Hasanzadeh²

چکیده [English]

The global financial crisis, started in 2008, has affected many economies and it has also caused a significant drop in global growth during past years. As time went on, various sectors has been affected due to decrease in demand and prices. Using CGE model, this paper investigates the effects of global agricultural price decrease on agricultural trade balance of Iran. The results showed that decrease in prices of agricultural goods has had a negative effect on trade balance of all agricultural products except three products, namely, wheat, industrial crops and wood products. In brief, the decline of global agricultural prices deteriorated the agricultural sector trade balance mainly due drop in export of horticultural products.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

World Price Decrease, Agricultural Commodities, Agricultural Trade Balance

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