سیبرنتیک غیرفعال ضریب سیل‌خیزی و توسعه فضائی حوزه مدنی شیراز بر بسترهیدروژئومورفیک طی دهه‌های 1330 تا 1380

فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

مقاله 15، دوره 7، شماره 25، فروردین و اردیبهشت 1396، صفحه 166-178   

نویسندگان

کمال امیدوار¹؛ حسن افتخار^{* 2}

¹استاد گروه جغرافیا و اقلیم شناسی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

²کارشناسی ارشد هیدروژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران

تاریخ دریافت: 25 شهریور 1394،  تاریخ بازنگری: 30 فروردین 1396،  تاریخ پذیرش: 20 فروردین 1395 

چکیده

  رخدادهای طبیعی از آغاز تا به امروز همواره جزء لاینفک زندگی جوامع بشری می‌باشد. چنانکه مهندسین و محققان را برآن داشته تا با روش‌های گوناگون و به کارگیری نرم­افزارها جهت پیش بینی و تخمین و ضریب خطر پذیری و...،  تجزیه و تحلیل  و محاسبه نمایند. یکی از این پدیده­ها سیل می‌باشد که در تمامی پروژه‌ها و برنامه‌ریزی توسعه‌ای در کشور جزء اولویت‌های ساختاری سیستمی برنامه‌ریزان و مشاوران مهندسی می‌باشد. هدف از این پژوهش بررسی بازخورهای ضریب سیل‌خیزی و توسعه فضائی حوزه مدنی شیراز بر بستر هیدروژئومورفیک آن طی دهه‌های 1330، 1350، 1360 و1380 می‌باشد. به همین منظور از عکس‌های هوایی شهر شیراز طی دهه‌های مذکور و نقشه‌های توپوگرافی با مقیاس 50000/1 وهمچنین نقشه‌های زمین‌شناسی با مقیاس 100000/1 استفاده شده و سپس با استفاده از نرم‌افزارهایی چونGIS  و Graphers پلات‌های مربوط به میزان ضریب سیل‌خیزی بخش‌های فوق را از طریق فرمول ضریب گراویلیوس محاسبه، ترسیم و سپس تحلیل نموده‌ایم. نتایج حاصله نشان داد که ضریب سیل‌خیزی حوضه شیراز  مابین 1 تا 9/1 بوده که بیانگر روند متوسط حوضه از لحاظ  سیل‌خیزی است. سپس میزان ضرایب محاسبه شده نیز برای رشد و توسعه ادواری شهر شیراز در قالب حوضه شیراز در دهه‌های 1330، 1350، 1360 و 1380 به ترتیب مابین 85/1 تا 86/1، 67/1 تا 75/1، 46/1 تا 66/1 و 47/1 تا 67/1 از نظر میزان سیل‎‌خیزی بوده که به طور کلی می‌توان گفت اعم قسمت‌های توسعه شهری شیراز نسبت به حوضه هیدروژئومورفیک در بخش حداقل از نظر سیل‌خیزی واقع گردیده است. توسعه ادواری حوزه شیراز البته در برخی مناطق در دهه‌های 1360 و 1380 به سمت مناطق متوسط تا حداکثر از نظر سیل‌خیزی پیش‌روی نیز داشته است.نکته قابل تامل اینکه مناطق یاد شده از لحاظ ضریب سیل‌خیزی غیرفعال بوده، اما این مناطق به صورت سیبرنتیک از دیگر پارامترهای ژئومورفولوژی منطقه مانند مورفوتکتونیک دارای روند پویا و فعال می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

سیبرنتیک؛ هیدروژئومورفیک؛ حوزه مدنی؛ شیراز

عنوان مقاله [English]

Cybernetics Disabled the coefficient of expansion of civil areas of Shiraz that most prone to flood in the context of hydrogeomorphic during 1951 to 2001 decades

نویسندگان [English]

Kamal Omidvar¹؛ Hasan Eftekhar²

چکیده [English]

Natural events from the beginning to the present day is always an integral part of human life. So, engineers and researchers use various methods and softwares to predict and estimate the risk factors by analyzinge and calculating. Flood is one of the phenomena that is considerd as the top priority in all projects and planning system among engineer consultants. The aim of this study is to consider the spatial development of the areas most prone to shiraz civilization in context of Hydrogeomorphic during the decades 1951, 1971, 1981 and 2001. Therefore, aerial photographs and topographic maps with a scale of the city decades 1/50000 as well as geological maps with a scale 1/100000 were used. Then, the plots related to flood index by softwares such as GIS and Graphers are calculated and analyzed by Gravelius coefficient formula for drawing. The results showed that the flood basin of Shiraz is 1 to 1.9 which indicates the average area of the flood. Then the coefficients calculated for growth and development in the basin cyclical city of Shiraz in the decades 1951, 1971, 1981 and 2001, respectively, between 1/85 to 1/86, 1/67 and 1/75, 1/46, 1/66 and 1/47 to 1/67 in terms of flooding. Generally, it can be mentioned that urban development section of Shiraz in relation to Hydrogeomorphic is located in the flood path. Cyclical development of Shiraz in some regions in the decades of 1981 and 2001 has been improved in flood path from average to maximum. The interesting point is that the index flood was inactive, but these areas in term geomorphology parameter have been progressed dynamicly and actively such as Morphotectonic region.

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