تحلیل وضعیت اشتغالِ بخش های عمده اقتصادی در شهرستان های استان اردبیل

فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

مقاله 9، دوره 7، شماره 28، آذر و دی 1396، صفحه 81-94   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

هوشنگ سرور^{* 1}؛ رحیم سرور²؛ سولماز سرباز گلی³

¹استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه مراغه، مراغه، ایران

²استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

³کارشناسی ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه مراغه، مراغه، ایران

تاریخ دریافت: 28 تیر 1395،  تاریخ بازنگری: 10 اسفند 1395،  تاریخ پذیرش: 28 آبان 1396 

چکیده

مبحث اشتغال و به طور کلی نوع فعالیت نیروی انسانی در بخش­های مختلف از موضوعات مهم جغرافیای اقتصادی می­باشد. در اقتصاد ایران اشتغال از دغدغه­های اصلی سیاست­گذاران اقتصادی است و  همچنین بخش­های اقتصادی از ارکان توسعه هر منطقه محسوب می­شود. لازمه­ی تدوین یک برنامه مناسب برای اشتغال­زایی و توسعه پایدار منطقه، شناخت دقیق از استعدادها و توان­های بالقوه بخش­ها و چگونگی ترکیب آن در مناطق می­باشد، تا بر اساس این شناخت برنامه­ریزی و اشتغال­زایی متوازن و متعادلی در هریک از بخش­ها و مناطق ایجاد شود. این تحقیق بصورت توصیفی و تحلیلی به مطالعه وضعیت اشتغال بخش­ها و گروه­های عمده فعالیت­های اقتصادی در مراکز شهرستان­های استان اردبیل طی سال های 90-1385 پرداخته است. مدل­های مورد استفاده در این تحقیق، مدل تغییر سهم با هدف تعیین ضریب رشد و پیش بینی وضعیت اشتغال بخش­های اقتصادی هر یک از شهرستان­ها، مدل ضریب مکانی برای تعیین وضعیت هر یک از بخش­های اقتصادی از نظر صادرات و واردات و همچنین محاسبه نرخ بیکاری می­باشد. نتایج حاصله نشان دهنده وجود عدم تعادل بین بخش­های سه گانه اقتصادی می­باشد. بطوری­که بخش خدمات در استان بصورت فزاینده رشد نموده و بر بخش­های دیگر مسلط شده است. نرخ بیکاری در استان در سال 1385 (84/12) درصد و در سال1390 به (92/16) درصد افزایش یافته است. نرخ رشد در کل اقتصاد مرجع (اردبیل) برابر 09/0 می باشد. در بین بخش­های اقتصادی استان طی سال های90-1385 بخش کشاورزی مثبت و دارای صعود بوده است. همچنین در طی سال های 90-1385 در استان بخش کشاورزی صادرکننده کالا، و جزء فعالیت­های پایه­ای و بخش خدمات و صنعت واردکننده کالا و جزء فعالیت غیرپایه­ای محسوب می­شوند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

اشتغال؛ استان اردبیل؛ مدل تغییر سهم؛ ضریب مکانی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of the employment status of major economic sectors city province of Ardabil

نویسندگان [English]

H Sarvar¹؛ R Sarvar²؛ S Sarbaz Goli³

چکیده [English]

Employment and generally activity type of labor force is important topic is economic geography. Employment is the main concern for economic policy makers in the Iran economy. Economic parts are the principal components in the development of each region. In order to program development for job creation and sustainable development in the region, it is necessary the exact understanding of the potential parts and its combination in the regions, so that balanced planning and employment can be achieved in each sectors parts and regions. This research, with descriptive and analytical methodology, is the investigating employment parts and economic activity groups in the of Ardabil province cities in the 2006-20011's. Used models in this research are Shift-Share Analysis model to determine rate and Forecasting economic sectors each cities in terms of employment, Location Quotient model to determine the status of each of the economic sectors in terms of exports and imports, And also in order to calculate the unemployment rate. The results show that there is an imbalance between the three parts of the economy, which the service sector has been dominant for other parts in province. The unemployment rate in the province was 12.84 percent in 2006 and has increased to 16.92 in 2011.The growth rate in the whole reference economy of Ardabil is 0.09.In the middle of economic sectors in 2006-2011 agricultural section has been positive and ascending. Also during 2006-2011, Agricultural section was the exporter of goods and services and also was the basic activity. Services and industry sections were the importer of goods and services and the non-basic activity.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Employment, The counties of Ardabil province, Economic Sectors, Shift-Share Analysis, Location Quotient

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