بررسی اثر تغییراقلیم بر تبخیر- تعرق و نیاز آبی گندم در منطقه‌ی بجنورد

فصلنامه علمی مهندسی منابع آب

مقاله 8، دوره 10، شماره 35، اسفند 1396، صفحه 97-110   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

سمیرا یارمحمدی¹؛ مهدی ذاکری نیا^{* 2}؛ خلیل قربانی²؛ افشین سلطانی³

¹کارشناس ارشد آبیاری و زهکشی

²دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان

³استاد گروه زراعت، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان

تاریخ دریافت: 18 فروردین 1394،  تاریخ بازنگری: 31 خرداد 1395،  تاریخ پذیرش: 05 اسفند 1396 

چکیده

به منظور شناخت بیشتر نسبت به تاثیرات پدیده­ی تغییراقلیم جهانی، در تحقیق پیش رو اثر تغییرات اقلیمی بر تبخیر- تعرق  و نیاز آبی گندم­های دیم و آبی در منطقه­ی بجنورد مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. بدین منظور، فراسنجهای هواشناسی حداقل و حداکثر دما، بارش و تابش روزانه طی سالهای 1983 تا 2012 از اداره­ی هواشناسی اخذ، و به عنوان داده های مشاهده ای به نرم افزار LARS-WG وارد شدند. فراسنجهای دما و بارش منطقه­ی بجنورد با استفاده از شبیه ساز گردش عمومی HadCM3 و تحت نمایشنامه­های انتشار A1B، A2 و B1 برای سه دوره­ی زمانی 2040-2011، 2070-2041 و 2100-2071 تولید شده، و با استفاده از نرم افزار LARS-WG5 ریزمقیاس شدند. از شبیه ساز  SSM-WHEAT، که دارای قابلیت تغییر در تاریخ کشت می­باشد، برای شبیه سازی رشد گندم استفاده شد. نتایج تغییر اقلیم حاکی از آن بودند که به طور کلی، دمای منطقه تا سال 2100 در تمام ماههای سال روند افزایشی خواهدداشت. همچنین اندازه­ی بارندگی در دسامبر، ژانویه، فوریه و مارس افزایش، اما در آوریل، می، آگوست و سپتامبر کاهش می یابد. نتایج شبیه سازی با SSM-WHEAT نیز نشان دادند که به خاطر کاهش در طول فصل رشد گندم، اندازه­ی تبخیر- تعرق گندم به­طور کلی تا سال  2100کاهش می­یابد، اما تبخیر-تعرق طی فصل رشد در تاریخ کشتهای دیرتر در دیم­کاری کاهش و در کشت آبی افزایش می­یابد. با کاهش اندازه­ی تبخیر-تعرق، نیاز خالص آبیاری نیز تا پایان قرن حاضر کاهش می یابد، اما در هر دوره­ی زمانی با جابه جایی تاریخ کشت به سمت اواخر پاییز، بر مقدار آن افزوده می­شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

تغییراقلیم؛ شبیه ساز گردش عمومی؛ گندم؛ تبخیر- تعرق؛ نیاز آبی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigation of the effect of climate change on evapotranspiration and wheat water requirement in Bojnord region

نویسندگان [English]

Samira yarmohammadi¹؛ Mehdi Zakerinia²؛ Khalil Ghorbani²؛ Afshin Soltani³

چکیده [English]

There is a general consensus among climate scientists about the rise in global temperature due to an increase in the anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere. This will undoubtedly change the pattern of evapotranspiration (ET) due to an increase in CO2 concentration of the air with the resultant deerease in the stomata opening. Predication of the wheat plant ET was achieved by entering the minimum and maximum air temperature, precipitation and daily radiation for the 1983-2012 period into the downscaled LARS-WG software and its incorporation into the HadCM3 general circulation model under the A1B, A2 and B1 climate change scenarios for the 2011-2040 , 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 periods. Results of the general circulation model for Bojnourd area indicates that the temperature will increase in all months of the year up to 2100 year. There will also be an increase in precipitation, in December, January, February and March, and its decreases in April, May, August and September. The generated temperature and precipitation date were fed into the SSM-WHEAT as an application for making changing planting date for simulation of wheat growth.  Results indicated that the change in the mean maximum and minimum temperature and also that of precipitation reduced rate-fed wheat's ET up to the year 2100. On the contrary, the ET of the late-planted irrigation wheat will be increased and it would be decreased in rainfed farming. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Climate Change, General Atmospheric Circulation Model, evapotranspiration, Wheat water requirement

مراجع

 

1)        Abbasi, F., Babaeian, A., Habibi Nokhandan, M., Goli Mokhtari, L. and Malbusi, Sh .2010. Climate change assessment over Iran in the future decades using MAGICC-SCENGEN model. Journal of Physical geography research Quarterly. 42(72):91-110. (In Persian)

2)        Ashofteh, p. 2012.  Climate change impact on the crop water requirement using HADCM3 model in Aidoghmoush irrigaton network. Iranian journal of irrigation and drainage. 3 (6): 142-156. (In Persian)

3)        Ashofteh, p. and Massah, bouani  A.R. 2010. Impact of climate change on maximum discharge: case study of Aidoghmoush basin, east Azarbaijan. Journal of water and soil science. 14 (53): 25-39. (In Persian)

4)        Azizi, Gh. and Roshani, M. 2008. Using Mann-Kendall test to recognize of climate change in caspian sea southern coasts. Journal of Physical geography research Quarterly.64:13-28. (In Persian)

5)        Babaeian, I., Nagafi Nik, Z., zabol Abbasi, F., Habibi Nokhandan, M., Adab, H. and Malbusi, Sh. 2010. Climate change assessment over Iran during 2010-2039 by using statistical downscaling of ECHO- G model. Iranian journal of  Geography and Development. 7 (16): 135-152. (In Persian)

6)        Bates, B.C., Z.W. Kundzewicz, S. Wu and Palutikof, J.P. 2008. Climate change and water. Technical paper of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 pp.21-29.

7)        Cherie, Z.N. 2013. Downscaling and modeling the effects of climate change on hydrology and water resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin,Ethiopia. Ph.D Thesis. Department of Civil Engineering University of Kassel.

8)        Cutforth H.W., Woodvine R.J., McConkey B.G., Smith D.G., Jefferson P.G.,andAkinremi O.O. 1999. Climate change in the semiarid prairie of Southwestern Saskatchewan: Late winter-early spring. Can.J. Plant. Sci. 79: 343- 353.

9)        Farshi, A. and Emdad, M. 1999. Investigating the effect of increasing the temperature of the earth on  increasing agricultural water consumption.  The second regional climate change conference,Tehran. Iran meteorological organization. (In Persian)

10)     Feyz Abadi A., Kouchaki A. and Nasiri Mahallati M. 2006.  Evaluation of the 50-year changes in cultivated area, yield and production of cereals in Iran and predicting future situation. Journal of plant researches.4(1): 49-69. (In Persian)

11)     Ghorbani Kh., Zakeri nia M. and Hezar Jaribi A. 2013.The effect of climate change on water requirementof soybean in Gorgan, journal of Agricultural Meteorrology. 2(1): 60-72. (In Persian)

12)     Hajarpour A., Soltani A,. Zeinali E. and Sayyedi F. 2013. Simulating the impact of climate change on production of Chickpea in rainfed and irrigated condition of Kermanshah. Journal of planet Production. 20 (2): 235-252. (In Persian)

13)     Harmsen E.W., Miller N.L., Schlegel N.J., and Gonzalez J.E. 2009. Seasonal climate change impacts on evapotranspiration, precipitation deficit and crop yield in Puerto Rico. J. of Agricultural Water Management. 96: 1085–1095.

14)     Hosseini, M., Sioseh Mardeh,  A., Fathi, P. and Sioseh mardeh M. 2007. Application of artificial neural network(ANN) and multiple regression for estimating assessing the performance of dry farming wheat yield in Ghorveh region, Kurdistan province. Journal of agricultural research. 7 (1): 41-54. (In Persian)

15)     IPCC, 2013: Annex II: Climate system scenario tables [Prather, M., G. Flato, P. Friedlingstein, C. Jones, J.-F. Lamarque, H. Liao and P. Rasch (eds.)]. In: Climate change 2013: The Physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA,52p.

16)     Kouchaki, A., Nasiri Mahallati, M., Sharifi, H., Zand A. and Kamali, Gh. 2001. A Simulation study for growth, phenology and yield of wheat cultivars under the doubled CO2 concentration in Mashhad conditions. Journal of biaban, 6(2):117-128. (In Persian)

17)     Lapp, S., Suachyn, D. and Wheaton, E. 2008. Future climate change scenarios for the south Saskatchewan River Basin. Institutional Adaptations to Climate Change Project.

18)     Mazloumzadeh, S.M., Valizadeh, J. and Ziaei, S.M. 2014. Assessing climate change impacts on wheat production (a case study) .Journal of the Saudi society of agricultural sciences. 13:107-115.

19)     Montazeri, M. and Fahmi, H. 2003. The effects of climate change on water resources. The third regional conference on climate change, Isfahan. Iran meteorological organization. (In Persian)

20)     Priestley, C.H.B. and Taylor, R.J., 1972. On the assessment of surface heat flux and evaporation using large-scale parameters. Mon. Weather Rev. 100 (2), 81–92.

21)     Ritchie,J.T. 1998. Soil water balance and plant water stress. In G.Y. Tsuji,G. hoogenboom, and P.K. Thornton (Eds), Understanding Option for Agricultural Production. Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, the Netherlands. pp. 41-54

22)     Rodrıguez, J., Weatherhead, J., Knox, W., and Camacho E. 2007. Climate change impacts on irrigation water requirements in the Guadalquivir River Basin in Spain. Regional Environmental Change. 7:149–159.

23)     Roshan, Gh., Khosh akhlagh, F. and Azizi, Gh. 2012. Assessment of suitable general atmosphere circulation models for forecasting temperature and precipitation amounts in Iran under condition of global warming. Iranian journal of Geography  and Development. 10(27): 19-36. (In Persian)

24)     Roy, K., Masudur R., Uthpal Kumar. 2009. Future Climate change and moisture stress: Impact on crop agriculture in South-Western Bangladesh, Climate change and development,1(1).

25)     Soleymani Nanadegani,M., Parsinejad M., Araghinejad, Sh. and Massah bavani, A. 2012. Study on Climate Change Effect on Net Irrigation Requirement and Yield for Rainfed Wheat (Case Study: Behshahr). Journal of water and soil. 25 (2): 389-397. (In Persian)

26)     Soltani, A. and Gholipoor, M. 2006. Simulating the impact of climate change on growth, yield and water use of chickpea. Journal of agricultural sciences and natural resources 13(2): 69-79. (In Persian)

27)     Soltani, A., and T.R. Sinclair, 2012. Modeling physiology of crop development, growth and yield. CAB International, Wallingford, UK.

28)     Soltani,A.2013. Parametric evaluation of SSM model for wheat cultivars in Golestan province. Research project report. Gorgan university of agricultural sciences and natural resources. 124 pages. (In Persian)