شناسایی عامل‌های مؤثر بر رشد زیربخش‌ زراعت و باغبانی

فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

مقاله 2، دوره 10، شماره 38، تیر 1397، صفحه 15-32   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

فهیمه برخوردار¹؛ امیر محمدی نژاد^{* 2}

¹کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، ایران

²استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، ایران

تاریخ دریافت: 17 آذر 1394،  تاریخ بازنگری: 28 دی 1395،  تاریخ پذیرش: 09 خرداد 1397 

چکیده

بخش کشاورزی در ایران یکی از مهم­ترین بخش­های اقتصادی است که نزدیک به 9 درصد تولید ناخالص داخلی و سهمی عمده از صادرات غیر نفتی را به خود اختصاص می­دهد. افزون بر این، ارتباط پیشین و پسین کشاورزی با دیگر بخش­ها، به رشد تولید و اشتغال در آن­ها نیز کمک می­کند. سهم زیربخش زراعت و باغبانی از ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی ایران در سال­های       90-1360 به طور میانگین 4/66 درصد می­باشد. بدین ترتیب، رشد این زیر بخش، نقشی تعیین کننده در رشد بخش کشاورزی دارد. در این مطالعه به بررسی منابع رشد زیربخش زراعت و باغبانی با استفاده از روش تصحیح خطای برداری و داده­های سری زمانی سالانه پرداخته شده است. نتایج نشان می­دهد که اثر مخارج پژوهش و توسعه کشاورزی بر زیربخش زراعت و باغبانی مثبت و به لحاظ آماری معنی­دار است و هم‌چنین، متغیر نیروی کار شاغل بخش کشاورزی در بلندمدت پرکشش است. در نهایت، توصیه می­شود دولت سهم شایان توجهی از ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی به هزینه­های پژوهشی اختصاص یابد و با این حال، مسیر درست صرف این اعتبارات نیز مشخص شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

رشد زیربخش زراعت و باغبانی؛ پژوهش و توسعه؛ مدل تصحیح خطای برداری؛ ایران

عنوان مقاله [English]

Factors Influencing Growth of Crop Production and Horticulture Subsectors in Iran.

نویسندگان [English]

F Barkhordar¹؛ A Mohammadinejad²

چکیده [English]

The agricultural sector is one of the most important economic sectors in Iran with about  nine percent share of GDP and the major share of non-oil exports.. The share of farm and horticulture subsectors in the value added agriculture is 66.4 percent. Thus, the growth of these sub-sectors plays a decisive role in the growth of the agricultural sector. In this study, the sources of growth of crop production and horticulture subsectors using vector error correction model and annual time series data have been investigated. The results show that the effect of agricultural research and development expenditures on crop production and horticulture sub-sectors is positive and significant. Also agricultural employment coefficient is elastic in the long run. Finally, it is recommended that more expenditure allocated to agricultural  research while present research policies should revised to increase efficiency.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Growth of Horticulture Subsector, Research and Development, Vector Error Correction Method

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