پیامدهای حذف یارانه نان بر تغییر نرخ وابستگی به واردات و امنیت غذایی

فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

مقاله 3، دوره 10، شماره 39، مهر 1397، صفحه 55-82   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

الهام سفلایی شهربابک¹؛ سید حبیب الله موسوی^{* 2}؛ سید ابوالقاسم مرتضوی²

¹کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.

²استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.

تاریخ دریافت: 27 دی 1395،  تاریخ بازنگری: 15 تیر 1396،  تاریخ پذیرش: 27 تیر 1397 

چکیده

    در دوره‌های متمادی، نان به عنوان کالایی اساسی، سهمی شایان توجه در تأمین امنیت غذایی خانوارهای شهری و روستایی داشته‌است. با این توضیح، این مطالعه با هدف تحلیل وضعیت امنیت غذایی کشور همگام با حذف یارانه نان طرح‌ریزی شد. بدین منظور، ابتدا در ماتریس حسابداری اجتماعی سال 1385، کالای نان از بخش محصولات غذا و آشامیدنی تفکیک شد. سپس سناریوهای حذف یارانه نان درکوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت در الگوی تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه (CGE) لحاظ شد. در نهایت، با بکارگیری شاخص نرخ وابستگی به واردات (IDR)، وضعیت امنیت غذایی بررسی شد. نتایج نشان از کاهش مقدار تولید، واردات و صادرات در کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت خواهد داشت. هم‌چنین، حذف یارانه نان در بلندمدت موجب تأمین بیش‌تر امنیت غذایی از راه واردات خواهد‌شد. با اعمال سیاست یاد شده، تغییرات نرخ وابستگی به واردات افزایش خواهد یافت. مقدار افزایش در بخش کشاورزی نسبت به بخش غیرکشاورزی درصد کم‌تری را به خود اختصاص خواهد داد. بنابراین، پیشنهاد می‌شود، سیاست منحل کردن یارانه نان به عنوان یک سیاست بلندمدت 6 تا 10 ساله در دستور کار تصمیم‌سازان بخش‌های اقتصادی قرار گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

حذف یارانه نان؛ امنیت غذایی؛ الگوی تعادل عمومی قابل محاسبه؛ نرخ وابستگی واردات

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effects of Bread Subsidy Elimination on Changes in Import Dependency Ratio and Food Security

نویسندگان [English]

elham soflaie shahrbabak¹؛ Seyed Habibollah Mosavi²؛ Seyed Abolghasem Mortazavi²

¹کارشناس ارشد اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.

²استادیار اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.

چکیده [English]

bread as a basic commodity, had a significant contribution to food security of urban and rural households. So explaining changes in bread price in Iran, is among the major issues for economists in the field of food security. the study aimed to analyze the food security situation in Iran was designed along with the elimination of bread subsidy. For this purpose, first bread was separated from the food and beverage section in social accounting matrix. Then, several bread subsidy elimination scenarios in the short and long terms were considered and resolved within the framework of computable general equilibrium (CGE). In the final step, the food security situation was discussed by using the import dependency ratio (IDR) index. Results showed that changes in the production, import and export will have a decreasing trend in the short and long terms. Also bread subsidy elimination in the long term will provide more food security through imports. In addition, it was observed that by applying the policy, changes in the dependency ratio on imports will increase.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Keywords: Bread subsidy elimination, Food Security, Computable general equilibrium model, the rate of import dependence

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