نقش مدیریت ریسک فعالیت‌های کشاورزی در بهبود شاخص‌های اقتصادی خانوارهای روستایی مطالعه موردی: شهرستان گرگان

فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

مقاله 7، دوره 8، شماره 31، مهر 1397، صفحه 61-76   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

علی اکبر نجفی کانی^{* 1}؛ بهمن صحنه²؛ محسن اخلاقی³

¹دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی روستایی، دانشگاه گلستان، گرگان، ایران

²استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی روستایی، دانشگاه گلستان، گرگان، ایران

³کارشناس ارشد جغرافیا و برنامهریزی روستایی، دانشگاه پیام نور، گنبدکاووس، ایران

تاریخ دریافت: 13 مهر 1396،  تاریخ بازنگری: 03 دی 1396،  تاریخ پذیرش: 16 شهریور 1397 

چکیده

امروزه با توجه به اینکه هرگونه فعالیت کشاورزی به دلیل وجود رویدادهای طبیعی خسارت‌زا، با مخاطره-هایی روبروست، برنامه‌ریزی برای کاهش میزان ریسک و افزایش ضریب امنیت سرمایه‌گذاری در این بخش، امری ضروری و اجتناب‌ناپذیر است. این تحقیق از نوع پژوهش‌های کاربردی بوده و شیوه اجرای پژوهش به صورت میدانی می‌باشد و برای جمع‌آوری اطلاعات از ابزار پرسشنامه استفاده شده است. جامعه آماری مورد مطالعه 33046 خانوار روستایی در شهرستان گرگان می‌باشند. تعداد نمونه‌ها بر اساس فرمول کوکران برابر با 253 خانوار بدست آمده که سهم هر یک از ده روستای مورد مطالعه در بخش‌های مرکزی و بهاران، به نسبت جمعیت آنان مشخص گردید. سپس پرسشنامه‌ها به صورت تصادفی ساده / سیستماتیک بین خانوارها توزیع شده و با استفاده از آزمون‌هایی از قبیل تحلیل‌های همبستگی (کای اسکوئر و اسپیرمن)، کروسکال والیس و تحلیل واریانس در محیط نرم‌افزار SPSS مورد تجزیه و تحلیل و سنجش قرار گرفته‌اند. نتایج بدست آمده نشان می‌دهد که بین مدیریت ریسک فعالیت‌های کشاورزی با بیشتر مولفه‌های محیطی و بلایای طبیعی از قبیل خشکسالی، سیل، سرمازدگی و... تا سطح اطمینان 99 درصد رابطه معناداری وجود دارد. علاوه بر آن مدیریت ریسک بر میزان بهره‌وری فعالیت‌های کشاورزی و به تبع آن بهبود کیفی زیستی خانوارهای روستایی اثرگذار بوده و میزان اثر‌گذاری عوامل محیطی و بلایای طبیعی بر مدیریت ریسک کشاورزی در روستاهای نواحی جلگه-ای، کوهستانی و کوهپایه‌ای شهرستان گرگان تفاوت معناداری تا سطح اطمینان 99 درصد دارند. در این راستا ارائه راهکارهای کلیدی به منظور کاهش ریسک از قبیل خرید تضمینی محصولات کشاورزی، بیمه محصولات، پرداخت تسهیلات به کشاورزان، برگزاری کلاس‌های آموزشی و ترویجی امری اجتناب‌ناپذیر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

مدیریت ریسک؛ ریسک کشاورزی؛ توسعه کشاورزی؛ خانوارهای روستایی؛ شهرستان گرگان

عنوان مقاله [English]

The role of agricultural activities risk management in improvement of economic indexes in the rural families Case study: City of Gorgan

نویسندگان [English]

Ali Akbar Najafi Kani¹؛ Bahman Sahneh²؛ Mohsen Akhlaghi³

¹Assistant Professor, Geography, University of Golestan

²Assistant Professor, Geography, University of Golestan, Gorgan, Iran.

³M.A. Geography and Rural Planning

چکیده [English]

Nowadays, considering the fact that because of damaging natural events, every agricultural activity faces dangers, planning to decrease risks and increase investment security ratio is essential and unavoidable. This study is an applied survey, it uses field study, and the data was collected by the use of questionnaires. The studied statistical population was 33046 rural families out of which 253 families were selected according to Cochrane’s formula. The share of each one of the ten villages in the central and Baharan regions was determined according to their populations. Then, the questionnaires were distributed among the families by the use of random simple/systematic method. The data was analyzed and measured by the use of tests such as correlation analysis (Ki Score and Spearman), Kruskal Wallis and variance analysis in SPSS environment. The achieved results show that there is up to 99% significant relationship between agricultural activities risk management with most of the environmental elements and with natural disasters such as drought, flood, cold, etc. In addition to that, risk management has been effective on the productivity of agricultural activities, and consequently, on biological quality improvement of rural families. The effectiveness level of the environmental factors and natural disasters on agricultural risk management in the plain rural areas, mountainous areas and hillsides of Gorgan has significant difference up to 99%. Accordingly, presenting key solutions to decrease risk before guaranteed purchase of crops, crops insurance, paying facilities to farmers, holding training and propagation courses are inevitable.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

risk management, agricultural risk, Agricultural Development, rural families, city of Gorgan

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