برآورد آسیب پذیری لرزه ای مسکن شهری و روستایی در مناطق سکونتگاهی کشور ایران با تأکید بر نوع اسکلت و مصالح مورد استفاده

فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

مقاله 5، دوره 10، شماره 39 - شماره پیاپی 38، آبان 1399، صفحه 37-48   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

اکبر محمدی^*

استادیار/دانشگاه فنی مهندسی بویین زهرا

تاریخ دریافت: 25 فروردین 1398،  تاریخ بازنگری: 04 مهر 1398،  تاریخ پذیرش: 26 مهر 1398 

چکیده

       آسیب به ساختمان­های مسکونی یکی از مهم­ترین آسیب­های کالبدی زلزله می­باشد که می­تواند آسیب­های دیگری را بدنبال داشته­باشد. در این تحقیق سوال اصلی این است که واحدهای مسکونی واقع در مناطق کشور (شهرستانها) با توجه به نوع مصالح و اسکلت و همچنین خطر زلزله، چقدر آسیب­پذیر هستند؟ هدف اصلی تحقیق بررسی درجه آسیب­پذیری لرزه ای واحدهای مسکونی در مناطق ایران (شهرستان­ها)  می­باشد. روش­های مورد استفاده در تحقیق AHP-fuzzy ، DIMETEL-fuzzy و تحلیل­های فضایی است. یافته­های تحقیق نشان می­دهد که تفاوت­های زیادی به تفکیک مناطق و همچنین به تفکیک بخش شهری و روستایی در خصوص آسیب­پذیری واحدهای مسکونی در مقابل زلزله وجود­دارد. میانگین امتیاز آسیب­پذیری در بخش شهری 27/0 و در بخش روستایی 31/0 بدست­آمد که نشانگر آسیب­پذیری بالای بخش روستایی در مقایسه با بخش شهری است. از نظر منطقه ای نیز شهرهای واقع در استا­ن­های مرکزی، همدان، اصفهان، تهران، کردستان، گیلان و زنجان از نظر آسیب­پذیری مسکن شهری در وضعیت مناسبی قرار­دارند در صورتی که شهرهای واقع در استان­های شرقی، جنوبی، جنوب غربی و شمال غربی کشور از آسیب­پذیری بالایی برخوردار­هستند. در خصوص بخش روستایی نیز، وضعیت استان­های مرکزی، اصفهان، تهران، کردستان و گیلان در مقایسه با سایر استان­ها مناسب­تر می باشد و استان­های شرقی، مرکزی، جنوبی و غربی نیز از آسیب­پذیری بالایی برخوردار­هستند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

آسیب پذیری؛ مسکن؛ منطقه؛ ایران

عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimation of Seismic Vulnerability of Urban and Rural Housing in Iran regions by Using Skeletal and Materials Used

چکیده [English]

           Damage to residential buildings is one of the most important physical damages of an earthquake that can cause further damages. The main question in this study is "How much is the vulnerability of residential units in country regions base of materials and skeleton as well as earthquake risk?" The main purpose of this study is to investigate the level of seismic vulnerability of residential units in Iran regions. The methods used in the research are AHP-fuzzy, DIMETEL-fuzzy and spatial analysis. The findings of the study show that there are many differences between the regions and the urban and rural areas regarding the vulnerability of residential units to earthquakes. The mean score of vulnerability in urban areas were 0.27 and in rural areas were 0.31, which indicates high vulnerability of rural areas in comparison with urban areas. Regionally, cities in Markazi, Hamedan, Isfahan, Tehran, Kurdistan, Gilan and Zanjan provinces are in good condition in terms of urban housing vulnerability while cities in eastern, southern, southwest and northwestern regions of the country are highly vulnerable. In rural areas, Markazi, Isfahan, Tehran, Kurdistan and Gilan provinces are more appropriate than other provinces and the eastern, central, southern and western provinces are also highly vulnerable.
Extended abstract
Introduction:
         Earthquake hazard is one of the most important natural hazards that annually cause a lot of damage to countries in the world. Identifying physical and structural vulnerability levels (one of the important aspects of vulnerability) of human settlements before of earthquake play a significant role in preventing and managing hazard and reducing costs. . Due to the geographical location of Iran and locating on the earthquake belt, there have always been major earthquakes throughout history. Destructive earthquakes such as Bojin Zahra earthquake in 1962, Roodbar earthquake in 1990, Bam earthquake in 2003, Varzaqan 2012, Kermanshah 2017 were the examples of destructive earthquakes in Iran during the last 60 years. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the seismic vulnerability of housing in Iranian cities with regard to materials and skeleton type as well as seismic hazard.
 Methodology:
      AHP-fuzzy and DEMATEL-fuzzy are the methods that used in this research to assess the housing vulnerability in Iran regions. The study area in this study was the Shahrestans(one of the administrative regional division) of Iran in 2016 and the data used in this study were the type of materials and skeletons of residential buildings in 2016 and the seismic hazard map of Iran.
 Results and discussion:
           For analyze urban and rural housing physical data after the formation of GIS data bank, in the first stage, estimate the vulnerability of urban and rural housing building in Iranian regions regardless of seismic risk base on type of materials and The skeleton using the expert opinions. In the second stage, seismic hazard estimation in Iranian regions was done using seismic hazard map and seismic hazard rate was calculated for each region. Finally, with integration of housing physical vulnerability and seismic hazard rate final vulnerability of housing in Iranian regions was obtained. Research findings are analyzed in two sections: rural and urban housing. According to the findings, urban housing sector in the Markazi, Hamadan, Isfahan, Tehran, Kurdistan, Gilan and Zanjan provinces are in good condition but in the in the eastern, South, Southwest and Northwest regions are not in a good condition. In the urban housing sector, most of the regions (41 percent) in terms of vulnerability are very vulnerable (0 to 0.21). In the rural housing sector, the regions located in the central provinces of Isfahan, Tehran, Kurdistan and Gilan are more suitable than other regions, and those in the eastern, central, southern and western regions are high vulnerable. In the rural sector, the low vulnerability class (score of 0.20 to 0.27) with 39% of the regions had the highest percentage. The average score obtained in rural housing sector is 0.31 and in urban housing sector is 0.27, indicating higher vulnerability of rural housing to urban housing units. This situation is more severe in Isfahan, Semnan, Zanjan, Gilan, Kermanshah, Kordestan and Chaharmahal -Bakhtiari provinces than other provinces and this indicates more attention to urban housing Strengthening and less attention to rural housing Strengthening. Other regions with positive numbers are located in the provinces of West Azerbaijan, East Azerbaijan, Kerman, Yazd and Lorestan, which shows the attention of these provinces to Strengthening of rural housing units.
 Conclusion:
         The results show that there is a great differences in the vulnerability of residential units between cities and rural in Iran regions. The difference between urban and rural sectors are the result of the weak policies and actions of the responsible organizations in rural housing. In general, due to the lack of proper budgeting structure and lack of proper policymaking in the ​​housing consolidation of Iran, most of the regions, especially in the rural sector, have major weaknesses which have led to the vulnerability of residential units. Research proposals are also presented in two sections: Future Research and Practical Suggestions. In the first part, considering that the area under study in this study is a region and some facts may not be properly represented due to the extent of the region level, the studies should be done at a smaller level such as the city and rural and in the second part It has also proposed the creation of a database for housing agencies.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Vulnerability, housing, Region, Iran

مراجع

1. Bidokhori, Alireza, Hosseinzadeh, Seyed Reza (2016) GIS (Software Basics and Training), Jahhad Publications (Ferdowsi University of Mashhad) (In persian)

1-            Razavian, Mohammad Taghi, Alian, Mehdi and Rostami, Hossein (1979): "Assessing the Spatial Vulnerability of Yazd Province Infrastructures with Passive Defense Approach", Town and Country Planning Journal, Volume 10, Number 1, Qom, pp. 31-63. (In persian)

2-            Shakoor, Ali, Karimi Ghotbabadi, Fazlollah & Maleki, Mohammad (1396): "Risk Analysis of Human settelment Vulnerability to Earthquake (Case Study: Villages of Lamerd County)", Journal of Regional Planning, Volume 7 No. 26, Marvdasht, pp. 92-81. (In persian)

3-            Tabibian, Manouchehr, Mozaffari, Negin. (1979): "Assessment of Residential Vulnerability to Earthquake and Vulnerability Reduction Strategies (Case Study: District 6 of Tehran Municipality"), Journal of Urban Studies, Volume 7, Number 27, Sanandaj, pp. 93-112. (In persian)

4-            Fazel, Sogol, Tawahi, Massoud and Mahmoudzadeh, Amir. (2016): "Urban Seismic Vulnerability Zoning Using ANP Model Case Study: Najaf Abad City", Journal of Crisis Management, Volume 6, Number 1, Tehran, pp. 132-121(In persian)

5-            Amanpour, Saeed, Mohammadi Deh Cheshme, Mostafa & Alizadeh, Mehdi (2016): "Assessment of Urban Infrastructure Vulnerability of Kouhdasht with Passive Defense Approach", Journal of Town and Country Planning, Volume 8, Number 1, Qom, pp. 133-154. (In persian)

6-            Institute of Natural Disasters (2016): "Preliminary Report of November 21, 2016- Azgaleh-Sarpol Zahab Kermanshah earthquake with magnitude 3.7", Institute of Natural Disasters, Tehran(In persian)

7-            Zebardast, Esfandiar. (2001): "Application of Analytical Hierarchy Process in Urban and Regional Planning", Journal of Honarhaye Ziba, No. 10, Tehran, pp. 21-13(In persian)

8-            Sadin, Hossein, Mirzaali, Mohammad, and Kowsari Safa, Masoumeh (2017): "Risk Analysis and Seismic Damage in Rural Areas Using AHP and GIS Methods Case Study:Abarshiveh Damavand Village », Journal of Crisis Management Research, Volume 6, Number 1, Tehran, pp. 93-104. (In persian)

9-            Anderson, B. Mary, Woodrow, J. Peter (1989): A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYZING CAPACITIES AND VULNERABILITIES, Harvard University Graduate School of Education, Longfellow  Hall,  Appian  Way, Cambridge,  Massachusetts 02138-3704 (617): 495-9815

10-    Birkmann, J. (2006): Indicators and criteria for measuring vulnerability: theoretical basis and requirements. In measuring vulnerability to natural hazards: towards disaster resilient societies Tokyo: UNU-Press: 55-77.

11-    Chaibedra, B., Benanane, A., & Boutaraa, Z. (2018): Seismic vulnerability assessment to earthquake at urban scale: A case of Mostaganem city in Algeria, Journal of Disaster Risk Studies, Vol 10, No 1:1-8.

12-    Askari, Ali (2011): "Spatial Statistics Analysis with Arc Gis", Tehran Municipality Information and Communication Technology Organization Publications(In persian)

13-    Faraji Sabokbar, Hassanali, Omidipour, Morteza, Modiri, Mehdi and Bastamnia, Amir. (2014): "Presentation of Ahwaz Vulnerability Zoning Model Using Profile-Based Options Sorting Model (SSP)", Journal of Crisis Management, Volume 3, Number 2, Tehran, pp. 56- 45(In persian)

14-    Lumantarna, E. Lam, N. Tsang, H.H. Wilson, J. Gad, E. Goldsworthy H.(2014): Review of Methodologies for Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Buildings, Australian Earthquake Engineering Society 2014 Conference, Nov. 21−23, Lorne, Victoria

15-    Nath, S. K., Adhikari, M. D., Devaraj, N., & Maiti, S. K. (2015): Seismic vulnerability and risk assessment of Kolkata City, India, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (NHESS) journal, volume 15 issue 6: 1103–1121.

16-    WHO (2016). https://www.who.int/environmental_health_emergencies/vulnerable_groups/en

17-    Kamel Basmonge, Batol, Mirjafari, Babak & Alavi, Seyed Ali (2012): "Seismic Vulnerability Assessment in a Tabriz City Area Using Spatial Multi Criteria Analysis Model", Journal of Space Planning, Volume 16, Issue 2 , Tehran, pp. 121-140(In persian)

18-    Iran Statistics Center (2016). Country Division 1395 information, available at https://www.amar.org.ir

19-    Iran Statistics Center (2016). Population and Housing Census 2016, available at https://www.amar.org.ir

20-    Ministry of Interior (2016). Map of Shahrestan divisions 2016