بررسی میزان سازگاری کشاورزان حوزه دریاچه ارومیه با خشکسالی (مورد: دهستان بکشلوچای شهر ارومیه)

فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

مقاله 8، دوره 10، شماره 40، بهمن 1399، صفحه 117-132   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

علی اکبر تقیلو^{* 1}؛ ساجد بهرامی جاف²؛ فریده علیزاده³؛ محبوبه شهبازی³

¹دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

²دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران

³دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد برنامه‌ریزی آمایش سرزمین، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران

تاریخ دریافت: 25 تیر 1398،  تاریخ بازنگری: 06 آبان 1398،  تاریخ پذیرش: 06 آبان 1398 

چکیده

هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی میزان سازگاری کشاورزان روستاهای دهستان بکشلوچای ارومیه می­باشد زیرا تغییرات اقلیمی در بسیاری از نقاط جهان آثار خود را در دهه­های اخیر بر جای گذاشته است و انتظار می­رود تاثیر این تغییرات در دهه­های آینده تشدید شود. در این بین معیشت در جوامع وابسته به کشاورزی به شدت تحت تأثیر آب و هوا بوده و آسیب پذیری بیشتری را تجربه می­نمایند. به همین دلیل شناسایی مراحل پاسخ و واکنش آنها اهمیت زیادی دارد. با توجه به تاثیر منفی این تغییرات بر تولید بخش کشاورزی، و از طرفی دیگر به دلیل اینکه تولید محصولات کشاورزی منبع درآمد بسیاری از جوامع روستایی می­باشد، لذا سازگاری جوامع روستایی (مخصوصا کشاورزان) برای حفظ معیشت و اطمینان از امنیت غذایی خود امری کاملا ضروری است. روش مورد استفاده تحلیل و توصیفی و روش جمع آوری اطلاعات نیز روش پیمایشی و اسنادی بوده است. برای تجزیه و تحلیل اطلاعات از آزمون­های آماریT  تک نمونه­ای، آزمون کرونباخ، آزمون تحلیل عامل تاییدی و رگرسیون استفاده شده است، نتایج حاصل شده از آزمون کرونباخ نشان دهنده 0.731 بود. نتایج آزمون T نشان از پایین بودن میزان سازگاری کشاورزان به میزان 2.67 است و در بین مولفه­های طرح شده مولفه دانش و اطلاعات نوین با امتیاز میانگین 3.19 اهمیت بیشتری داشته است. نتایج آزمون رگرسیون بیانگر تاثیر زیاد دانش و اطلاعات نوین  و تغییر و تحول با سطح سازگاری کشاورزان به ترتیب با میزان 0.62 و 0.4 بوده است. نتایج تحلیل عاملی تاییدی بیانگر اهمیت مولفه دانش نوین بود،و در میان گویه­های دانش نوین، میزان دانش در رابطه با روش­های نوین کاشت با امتیاز 0.9 و میزان دانش در ارتباط با روش های نوین برداشت با امتیاز 0.883 بیشترین تاثیر را داشته­اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

سازگاری؛ خشکسالی؛ دهستان بکشلوچای؛ دریاچه ارومیه؛ ارومیه

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing adaptability of farmers with drought in Urmia Lake (Bakeshlochay village, Urmia city)

نویسندگان [English]

Ali akbar taghilo¹؛ Sajed Bahrami jaf²؛ Farideh Alizadeh³؛ Mahboobe Shahbazi³

¹Associate Professor of Geography & Rural Planning, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.

²Phd student Ferdousi university Mashhad, Iran

³: Master Student of Geomorphology, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran

چکیده [English]

Climate change has left its work in many parts of the world in recent decades, and it is expected that the impact of these changes will intensify in the coming decades. Meanwhile, livelihoods in agricultural communities are heavily influenced by weather and experience more vulnerability. For this reason, it is important to identify the response steps and reactions. Given the negative impact of these changes on agricultural production, and on the other hand, because agricultural production is the source of income for many rural communities, adaptation of rural communities (especially farmers) to maintain livelihoods and ensure their food security is an issue Absolutely necessary. The purpose of this study was to investigate the compatibility of farmers in the villages of Baskeholuchai village of Urmia. The method used was analytical and descriptive and data gathering method was survey and documentary. Data were analyzed using one-sample T-test, Cronbach's test, Bartlett's test, and regression. The results of Cronbach's test were 0.731 which had a high level of stability. The T-test showed The low level of farmers' compatibility is 2.67. Also, the results of regression test showed the great impact of new knowledge and information on the level of farmers' compatibility.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
 Climate change and its impact on surface water flows and groundwater resources along with inadequate management of water resources have increased the vulnerability of communities to these changes and, undoubtedly, exacerbated water crises have further increased the damage. It will become acceptable. Meanwhile, livelihoods in rural communities are heavily influenced by climate, with other socio-economic factors and political, cultural conditions also affecting the farmer's performance and ability to produce and profit. For this reason, it is important to identify the stages of response and response. Adaptation means harmonizing economic, social, environmental conditions with the consequences of climate change. The system's adaptability, capacity or potential to adapt to climate change.Agriculture can survive when the farmer recognizes beneficial adaptation strategies and applies them in the face of climate change, requiring that the farmer pay attention to climate change. Therefore, adaptation to climate change is a prerequisite for sustainable development and poverty reduction and must be taken into account in management processes .The purpose of this study was to investigate the adaptation capacity of farmers to drought in order to sustain their livelihoods. The main research question is what are the main factors affecting farmers' adaptability. And the research hypothesis is: New farmers' knowledge seems to be very important in the degree of adaptation of farmers.
Methodology
The present study is quantitative in nature and applied in purpose. The research method is descriptive-correlational in terms of data acquisition and data processing. According to the scope of the research, the research carried out has a cross-sectional use. In this study, library and field methods were used as a questionnaire to obtain the required information and data collection. The researcher-made questionnaire consisted of two sections. In the first part, the individual and professional characteristics of the respondents were questioned. The second part was related to the research variables. The statistical population of this study consisted of village farmers (Yuvalar, Keshtiban, Qeshlaq Mirza Ali and Mohammad Gholi, Isaikan, Igdir, Balderloo) who were the closest villages to Lake Urmia in Bekshluchai village. Cochran's formula was used to determine the sample size. According to the size of the statistical population (total number of household heads 1029), the sample size was 280.
Results and discussion
As shown in Table 4, the average compatibility is 2.67 overall. The results of the single sample T test show that the level of compatibility of farmers is lower than the theoretical average value of 3, which means that farmers are not well adapted to drought and drought in Urmia Lake. Among the components designed to assess farmers 'compatibility, the only component of modern knowledge was higher than the theoretical average of the statistical test, and the impact of this component on farmers' compatibility was greater due to the increased level of awareness of farmers and their families to Knowledge and knowledge of different aspects of agriculture. The rest of the research components had no effect on the level of adaptation of farmers in the studied villages.
In general, among the items related to farmers' adaptation, the most recent knowledge about the new harvesting and planting methods were 0.901 and 0.883, respectively, which were the most effective strategies to increase drought adaptation. Farmers' burden options and non-agricultural income had the least impact on compliance, with -0.501 and 0.503, respectively. After the Matrix 2, the use of agricultural technologies and access to financial credit were unprofessional, which means that they do not have an impact on the rate of farmers in the study area. Sub-criteria that have a high score in each criterion can be used as practical strategies to increase the degree of adaptability of farmers in the study area.
According to the output of linear regression analysis of access to services and credits with (0.168), participation with (0.315), new knowledge and information with (0.621), indigenous knowledge with (0.284) and component of transformation with (0.405) as Factors affecting adjustment were identified which can be used in the calculation of regression. In general, based on the results of linear regression based on the level of significance and standard beta coefficient, the new knowledge and information variable had the most relationship with the adaptation of drought farmers, ie, with increasing and decreasing level of new knowledge and information in drought. Among the farmers in the study area, the degree of compatibility of the farmers will also change. Then the transformation variable is in the second place of impact on adaptation, the participation variable is in third place of impact on adaptation. The variable of access to services and credits also had the least effect on drought adaptation of farmers in the study villages based on regression model.
Conclusion
The results of T-test and linear regression showed that the new knowledge and information variable in the study area was more effective than the rest of the research findings. The results of T-test indicated the effect of access to services and credits component on farmers' compliance rate. Financial and extension services are one of the factors affecting adaptability, access to credit, such as lending to farmers, is increasingly effective in drought compliance and access to credit and lending enables farmers. Perform numerous drought adaptation activities India. Participation or Membership in Social Entities Another Factor Affecting Farmers' Adaptation Capacity Researchers believe that individuals who are members of these institutions can interact with each other and gain experience in helping each other in times of drought and other climate disasters. The dominant agricultural activity in the rural areas of Lake Urmia has a deep relationship with the environment and water resources, which has caused this population to be affected more than other parts of the problem. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the adaptation of drought farmers in Urmia Lake, considering that the conditions that have the greatest impact on the agriculture and the economy of the region, as well as the migration of its population and the relative disruption of the market and its related problems. We have come up with solutions to prevent problems and adapt to the situation. It can be concluded that the research hypothesis that modern farmers 'knowledge seems to be of great importance to the extent of farmers' adaptability. Confirmed.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Adaptability"و"Drought", "Bakeshlochay village", " Urmia Lake", " Urmia"

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