تببین رقابت‌پذیری منطقه‌ای با رویکرد آینده نگاری( مطالعه موردی:استان کرمانشاه)

فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

مقاله 3، دوره 11، شماره 44، اسفند 1400، صفحه 39-56   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jzpm.2022.4082

نویسندگان

ستوده نازنین زهرا^{* 1}؛ جمال فتح اللهی²؛ میرنجف موسوی³

¹دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و کارآفرینی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران.

²استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و کارآفرینی، کرمانشاه، ایران.

³استاد گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، آذربایجان غربی، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت: 19 اسفند 1398،  تاریخ بازنگری: 20 اردیبهشت 1399،  تاریخ پذیرش: 20 اردیبهشت 1399 

چکیده

درهم­تنیدگی سرنوشت و مسیر حرکت دست جمعی در راستای رسیدن به رفاه اجتماعی و اقتصادی باعث ظهور رویکرد جدید با عنوان رقابت­پذیری منطقه­ای شد. این رویکرد ابزاری است بسیار کارآمد که می­توان بامطالعه عمیق جنبه­های گوناگون منطقه­ای، ضمن شناسایی عوامل ریشه­ای تأثیرگذار در توسعه یک منطقه و برآورد میزان تأثیرگذاری آن‌ها، سمت‌وسوی راهبردهای توسعه منطقه مشخص کرد، بر این اساس این پژوهش باهدف تبیین رقابت­پذیری استان کرمانشاه سعی در بررسی وضعیت­های محتمل عرصه رقابت­پذیری منطقه کرده تا بهترین برنامه برای تسهیل روند رقابت­پذیری منطقه برداشته شود. برای این منظور 64 شاخص در قالب27 زیر مؤلفه و 5 مؤلفه جمع­آوری و برای بررسی و سنجش رابطه بین آن­ها و استخراج عوامل کلیدی درزمینۀ رقابت­پذیری منطقه­ای از نرم­افزار میک­مک استفاده و برای تحلیل و استخراج سناریوها از نرم­افزار سناریو­ویزارد استفاده‌شده است. گفتنی است که ارزیابی شاخص­ها در این پژوهش توسط کارشناسان متخصص در زمینۀ اقتصادی و منطقه­ای که به‌صورت نمونه گلوله برفی به تعداد 50 نفرِ با استفاده از فرمول کوکران صورت گرفته است. نتایج پژوهش نشان داده است که از بین 64 شاخص 9 شاخص( حمایت دولت از کسب‌وکارهای دانش‌بنیان، پژوهشکده­های تخصصی، سرمایه­گذاری مستقیم خارجی، تمرکز جغرافیای فعالیت­های مکمل، امنیت سرمایه­گذاری، سرمایه­گذاری بخش خصوصی، سطوح رقابت آزاد و عادلانه افراد، کیفیت نیروی کار، شایسته‌سالاری) به‌عنوان عوامل کلیدی در رقابت­پذیری منطقه کرمانشاه تشخیص داده‌شده‌اند و وضعیت­های محتمل آینده رقابت­پذیری حاصل از عوامل کلیدی بیانگر 7 سناریو قوی، 167 سناریو ضعیف و 31 سناریو محتمل( سازگار) بوده است. سناریوهای محتمل دارای 279 وضعیت محتمل در سه وضعیت مطلوب با ضریب احتمال 14 درصد، ایستا 32 درصد و بحرانی با 53 درصد بوده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

رقابت پذیری؛ رقابت پذیری منطقه ای؛ استان کرمانشاه؛ آینده نگاری

عنوان مقاله [English]

Explaining the Regional Competitiveness with future study approach (The case study of Kermanshah Province)

نویسندگان [English]

Nazanin Zahra Sotoudeh¹؛ Jamal Fatah Allah²؛ mirnajaf mousavi³

¹Ph.D. Candidate in Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Entrepreneurship, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran.

²Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Entrepreneurship, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran.

³Professor, Department of Geography, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Urmia University, West Azerbaijan, Iran.

چکیده [English]

                     The Confluence of destiny and the path of collectively movement is the reason of a new approach that called regional competitiveness in order to achieve social and economic prosperity. This approach is a very effective tool that can be specified the regional Development Strategies by studying in depth the various regional aspects it is reason of identify the root causes affecting the development of an area and estimating their effectiveness. Accordingly, the present study, with the aim of explaining the Regional Competitiveness of Kermanshah Province has tried to examine the possible situations in the field of competitiveness in the region to make the best program to facilitate the competitiveness of the region. For this purpose 64 indices were collected in 27 sub-components and 5 components and the MicMac software is used to study and evaluate the relationship between them and extract key factors in the field of regional competitiveness and ScenarioWizard software is used to analyze and extract scenarios. It should be noted that the evaluation of indicators in this study has been done by expert experts in the field of economically and regionally and in the form of a snowball sample of 50 people and using the Cochran's formula. For this purpose 64 indices were collected in 27 sub-components and 5 components and the MicMac software is used to study and evaluate the relationship between them and extract key factors in the field of regional competitiveness and ScenarioWizard software is used to analyze and extract scenarios. Research results have shown that of the 64 indices, 9 indices have been identified (government support for knowledge - based businesses, specialized research institutes, foreign Direct Investment, geographic focus of complementary activities, Investment security, Private Sector Investment, Free and fair competition levels, quality of workforce, meritocracy) as Key Factors in Competitiveness in Kermanshah Province. And the likely future situations of competitiveness resulting from key factors it represented 7 strong scenarios, 167 weak scenarios, and 31 probable (adaptive) scenarios. The Possible scenarios have 279 probable situations in three desirable situations with a probability factor of %14, %­32 stagnant and %53 critical.
Extended Abstract
Introduction:
Cities can thrive on their economy among other cities with the competition. Understanding and paying attention to current and world-class indicators of competition one of the most important areas of urban creation is competitiveness able to compete with other cities internationally, The most is knowing and paying attention to the competition among the world's most popular and up-to-date indicators. Right now, all over the world competitiveness is a central issue and means of achieving good economic growth and sustainable development. City competitiveness is the potential or capacity of a city to exploit or create competitive advantage that can lead to high and sustainable economic growth of the city compared to other cities. And the issue of regional competitiveness is important because of that generally in terms of economic performance can be seen significant differences between regions of a country. On the other hand many important competitiveness levers are applicable only at the regional level.
Methodology:
       Due to the nature of the present study and a vision that is intended for planning‌ (Perspective 1404), the purpose of this study is practical; it is also among qualitative research, in terms of the nature of the data. The research method is based on future study approach. The present research is a part of documentary-survey research, based on the method of data collection and information. Because the scenario approach is in line with the expert opinion and by using the differential Snowballing method, 15 experts in the field of competitiveness have been identified with the aim of editing competitiveness model scenarios of the kermanshah province their views on indicators have been analyzed and key factors are extracted in MICMAC software and these factors are classified into hypotheses and have been re-evaluated by experts and are classified in the wizard scenario to three floors; desirable, static and critical.
Findings:
        In this research, the variables used in the MICMAC software were in dimensions 64 * 64 matrix and matrix filling rate was %54 that shows more than % 54of the factors were influenced by each other. Of the 1891 possible relationships in this matrix; 2205 has zero relation that is to say the factors did not or did not influence each other, 474 was the number one, 962 was the number two and 406 was the number three. That's according to the results of the MICMAC software that of the 64 indices, 9 indices have been identified as Key Factors in Competitiveness in Kermanshah Province. The key factors are classified under the hypothesis of desirable, static and critical spectra to elucidate possible situations of competitiveness of Kermanshah province and extracted in the Scenario Wizards by measuring the effect from 3 to -3 by experts; 7 strong scenarios, 167 weak scenarios, and 31 probable scenarios. The Possible scenarios have 279 probable situations in three desirable situations with a probability factor of %14, %­32 stagnant and %53 critical.
Conclusion:
        The results of the expert evaluation were most likely for critical situations with the features (regardless of the qualifications of the institutions, increasing the quantity of labor rather than quality, functional monopoly without any competitors, increasing government influence and performance in various dimensions, The prevalence of Border provinces for investment, exit Foreign Institution from Iran and the fear of investing in friendly and partner countries, the closure of knowledge-based businesses due to lack of government support, Performing purely research functions without functional aspects). It is therefore necessary to consider the following three conditions to prevent this scenario from happening and to get into the desirable situation. These should be considered for reduce economic activity; (governmental Bank financial support for businesses, especially knowledge based, near collaboration between industry and academia). These should be considered for investment security; (Private Sector Investment, foreign investment, minimizing the government, considering the potential of the border region more than possible risks­­). These should be considered for meritocracy ;( Creating competitiveness of domestic products with foreign samples and to prevent the monopoly of the market in the hands of some, pay attention to the quality and efficiency of the workforce, pay attention to the criterion rather than the relationship in the jurisdiction of the institutions)

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Competitiveness, Regional Competitiveness, Kermanshah Province, Foresight

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