تحلیل فضایی شاخص توسعه انسانی و شناسایی تعیین‌کننده‌های آن در ایران

فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

مقاله 2، دوره 11، شماره 43، آذر 1400، صفحه 16-31   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jzpm.2021.4146

نویسندگان

داود جمینی^{* 1}؛ کیومرث ایراندوست²؛ علیرضا جمشیدی³

¹استادیار گروه ژئومورفولوژی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران گروه پژوهشی مطالعات محیطی دریاچه زریبار، پژوهشکده کردستان‌شناسی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران

²دانشیار گروه شهرسازی، دانشکده هنر و معماری، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران

³استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه

تاریخ دریافت: 27 اردیبهشت 1399،  تاریخ بازنگری: 15 خرداد 1399،  تاریخ پذیرش: 15 خرداد 1399 

چکیده

شاخص توسعه انسانی ترکیبی از سه مولفه کلیدی امید به زندگی، درآمد سرانه و سطح سواد است و برای سنجش سطح توسعه­یافتگ، تحلیل عدالت فضایی و نابرابری منطقه­ای در حوزه ملی و منطقه­ای مورد استفاده قرار می­گیرد. پژوهش حاضر که با روش توصیفی ـ تحلیلی انجام شده است، با هدف بررسی وضعیت توسعه­یافتگی استان­های کشور به لحاظ شاخص توسعه انسانی و شناسایی عوامل مرتبط با آن انجام گرفته است. برای گردآوری اطلاعات مورد نیاز، تکیه اصلی بر مستندات مرکز آمار کشور بوده است و برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده­های گردآوری شده از مدل موریس، نرم­افزار GIS و SPSS استفاده شده است. نتایج نشان می­دهد که به لحاظ شاخص توسعه انسانی، سه استان تهران، البرز و مازندران در بالاترین رتبه­ها و سه استان سیستان و بلوچستان، کردستان و خراسان شمالی، در پایین­ترین رتبه­ها قرار گرفته­اند. همچنین توزیع فضایی شاخص توسعه انسانی در میان استان­های کشور نشان می­دهد استان­های مرکزی و شمالی کشور، دارای شرایط نسبی بهتری نسبت به استان­های شرقی و غربی هستند. در خصوص عوامل موثر بر شاخص توسعه انسانی نتایج مقاله نشان داد شاخص­های درصد روستانشینی، بعد خانوار، بارتکفل، بارتکفل واقعی، بارتکفل نظری و درصد شاغلان بخش کشاورزی، به ترتیب با میزان همبستگی 709/0، 740/0، 553/0، 553/0 ، 505/0 و 599/0، دارای رابطه آماری معنادار منفی با شاخص توسعه انسانی بوده و شاخص­های درصد شهرنشینی، نسبت اشتغال، نرخ مشارکت اقتصادی، درصد شاغلان بخش صنعت و درصد شاغلان بخش خدمات، به­ترتیب با ضریب همبستگی 709/0، 407/0، 361/0، 499/0 و 358/0، دارای رابطه آماری معنادار مثبت با شاخص توسعه انسانی بوده­اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

توسعه؛ شاخص توسعه انسانی؛ نابرابری استانی؛ ایران

عنوان مقاله [English]

Spatial analysis of human development index and Identify its determinants in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

Davood Jamini¹؛ Kayoumars Irandoost²؛ Alireza Jamshidi³

¹Assistant Professor, Department of Geomorphology, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran Department of Zrebar Lake Environmental Research, Kurdistan Studies Institute, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran

². Associate Professor, Department of Urban planning, Faculty of Art and Architecture, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran

³Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran

چکیده [English]

The Human Development Index which is a combination Index, is currently one of an important tool in analyzing spatial justice and regional inequality in the national and regional context. The aim of this paper is to investigate and identify the inequality of human development index in the provinces and the related factors. For this, a kind of descriptive-analytical method has been used and the data was collected from the National Population and Housing Census. For data analysis, the Morris model, GIS and SPSS software were respectively used. The results show that three provinces of Tehran, Alborz and Mazandaran are in the highest and three provinces of Sistan and Baluchestan, Kurdistan and North Khorasan are at the lowest ranks regarding the human development index, and central and northern provinces have relatively better conditions than the eastern and western provinces. Regarding the factors affecting the human development index show that the percentage of rural population, household size, the dependency burden, the real dependency ratio, and percentage of employment in agriculture with the correlation coefficient of 0.709, 0.740, 0.553, 0.553, 0.505, and 0.599, respectively have a significant negative relationship with the human development index, and indicators of urbanization percentage, employment ratio, economic participation rate, percentage of employees in the industrial sector and the percentage of employees in the service sector with the correlation coefficient of 0.709, 0.407, 0.361, 0.499 and 0.358, respectively have a significant positive relationship with the human development index. indicators of urbanization percentage, employment ratio, economic participation rate, percentage of employees in the industrial sector and the percentage of employees in the service sector with the correlation coefficient of 0.709, 0.407, 0.361, 0.499 and 0.358, respectively have a significant positive relationship with the human development index.
Introduction
United Nations Development Program in 1990, It was concluded that people and their abilities and capabilities, they should be the measure of a country's development and economic criteria alone, it is not enough to assess the level of development of countries. Hence the United Nations Development Program, Human Development Index to assess the level of development of countries and also, it has proposed assessing the state of national policies in different countries That A combination of three key indicators Life expectancy is per capita income and literacy level. Therefore, in recent years, the concept of human development has become a common concept with an emphasis on people's lives and It has gone beyond the economic dimension.
Studies show that according to the latest UN program report, Iran ranks among 188 countries rated on Human Development Index with a score of 0.774 for the Human Development Index, has been ranked 69th. Despite the clear status of our country's human development index among other countries in the world, Assessing the status of the Human Development Index among the provinces of the country is of particular importance. Because with the realization of this important, At the same time, the situation of inequalities between the provinces of the country has been clarified in terms of having human development indicators Which is the symbol and symbol of economic, health and educational development of the country's provinces, Provides the necessary cognitive context from the current situation of the provinces for future planning in the form of national plans and development zone. Other important issues related to the human development index, identifying key factors is relevant and effective That It can be effective in improving the human development index and Identify the positive and negative factors that affect it.
Therefore, considering the special importance of the situation of the residents of the provinces of the country from the Human Development Index and its variables, the importance of spatial and regional balance between the provinces of the country in terms of having this index As well as identifying the positive and negative factors affecting the human development index, Basic questions that researchers are looking to explain in this study  These are: What is the status of the country's provinces in terms of human development index? What geographical analysis can be made of the spatial distribution of the Human Development Index in the provinces of the country? and What are the factors related to the Human Development Index in Iran?
 
Methodology
Approach the present study It can be considered a development - application Which has been done by descriptive-analytical method. To collect the required information, has been the main reliance on Documents and statistics of the country in 2016. According to the objectives of the study, some indicators are extracted directly from data from the Statistics Center and Some indicators have been calculated and used using raw data. The range studied in the present study Based on the latest political and administrative divisions, Is 31 provinces of the country. Generally, In the first stage of the research using the collected data from Three indicators (life expectancy, literacy rate and per capita income), Human Development Index Using Morris Model It was calculated for the provinces of the country. In the second stage, to draw a map of the spatial distribution of the country's estates According to the Human Development Index, Geographic Information System (GIS) software has been used. In order to identify the factors related to and affect human development, Correlation between human development status calculated for each province and Relevant economic and social indicators Checked using SPSS software.
 
Results and discussion
The findings show Among 31 provinces of Iran, The three provinces of Tehran, Alborz and Mazandaran with a development coefficient of 0.994, 0.866 and 0.787, respectively. It has the highest score on the Human Development Index and They are ranked first to third in the country. Also the provinces of Sistan and Baluchestan, Kurdistan and North Khorasan 0, 0.362 and 0.366 development coefficients, respectively. Have had the lowest coefficient of human development index. In fact, these three provinces, in terms of having an international index of human development, Are the most deprived provinces in the country. Findings from the study of correlation between human development index and the variables studied shows Correlation between the Human Development Index and The variables of percentage of urbanization, percentage of realization, household dimension, employment ratio, economic participation rate, Dependency Ratio, Real Dependency Ratio, Visionary Dependency Ratio, percentage of employees in agriculture, percentage of employees in industry and percentage of employees in services, It has been statistically significant and Between the Human Development Index and the employment rate variables, the unemployment rate and the economic participation rate There is no statistically significant relationship. It is worth mentioning The correlation type of variables that have statistically significant relationship with human development index Is different. In such a way that Relationship between Human Development Index and the variables of rural percentage, household size, Dependency Ratio, Real Dependency Ratio, Visionary Dependency Ratio and the percentage of agricultural workers, it was negative and inverse and Relationship between Human Development Index and The variables of urbanization percentage, employment ratio, economic participation rate, percentage of industrial sector employees and percentage of service sector employees, It has been positive.
 
Conclusion
The results of this study show in terms of human development index among the provinces of the country, there is a lot of inequality and gap. An examination of the status of the Human Development Index and the status of each of the provinces of the country in terms of economic and social variables examined shows Provinces that are in a better position in terms of human development index There are provinces Compared to other provinces, Have a higher percentage of Urbanization, employment ratio, economic participation rate, percentage of employees in industry and services. There are also significant points in the field of less developed or less developed provinces with a human development index. These provinces, most of the country's border provinces are in the east, southeast, northeast, northwest and west of the country. Compared to other provinces in the country where the human development index is more favorable, these provinces They have a higher percentage of realization (low urbanization rate),
Next family, Dependency Ratio, Real Dependency Ratio, Visionary Dependency Ratio and Agricultural workers. Low level of development in these provinces It is associated with indicators such as high rural population rates, employment in the agricultural sector, traditional household contexts, a tendency to have more children, and a greater burden on children. It seems that a closer look at the causes of inequality among the country's provinces in terms of human development indicators and How to connect between this indicator and the aforementioned variables, it is useful and necessary for the analysis of the country's development.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

: Development, Human Development Index, Provincial inequality, Iran

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