تحلیل بازآفرینی بافت‌های فرسوده شهری با تاکید بر نقش و عملکرد ذینفعان محلی با رویکرد آینده‌نگاری( مطالعه موردی: شهر زنجان)

فصلنامه علمی و پژوهشی پژوهش و برنامه ریزی شهری

مقاله 4، دوره 13، شماره 48، اردیبهشت 1401، صفحه 51-68   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jupm.2022.4209

نویسندگان

محمد رسولی^{* 1}؛ محسن احدنژاد روشتی²؛ ابوالفضل مشکینی³؛ تقی حیدری⁴

¹دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران.

²دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

³استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران.

⁴دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت: 03 دی 1398،  تاریخ بازنگری: 06 تیر 1399،  تاریخ پذیرش: 07 تیر 1399 

چکیده

       شهرها به‌عنوان دومین انقلاب در فرهنگ بشری با پیشینه درخشان درزمینۀ مدیریت شهری در عصر حاضر با یکی از بزرگ‌ترین چالش­های خود با عنوان بافت­های فرسوده دست‌وپنجه نرم می­کند. این تحقیق با تحلیل­های ساختار شکنانه از روند برنامه­­ریزی مرسوم زمان حال؛ بر تحلیل بازآفرینی بافت­های فرسوده شهر زنجان در بازه زمانی آینده تأکید دارد. بدین منظور جهت جمع­آوری اطلاعات از دو روش میدانی-کتابخانه­ای بهره برده شده و برای تحلیل از 40 شاخص در قالب 3 مؤلفه (­اقتصادی، اجتماعی- فرهنگی و کالبدی-فضایی) استفاده‌شده است. برای ارزیابی روابط بین شاخص­ها و عملکرد هریک از آن­ها درروند بازآفرینی شهری از نظر کارشناسان متخصص در این زمینه و از نرم­افزار MICMAC استفاده‌شده که درنهایت 12 شاخص به‌عنوان کلیدی­ترین عوامل شناسایی و متناسب با آن 6 گمانه محتمل با اجماع نظر کارشناسان طراحی شده و برای ارزیابی گمانه­ها از نظرات 4 گروه (­شهروندان، کسبه، اجتماعات محلی، مدیران شهری) در محیط­SMIC استفاده‌شده است. نتایج حاصل از ارزیابی یافته­های تحقیق نشان داده است که بازآفرینی بافت­های فرسوده شهر زنجان دارای 64 سناریو با درجات احتمال تحقق مختلف بوده است. در این میان 30 سناریو با ضریب احتمال 0 وجود داشته و در مقابل 20 سناریو با ضریب احتمال قوی شناسایی شده­است و سناریوهای 64 و 50 محتمل­ترین سناریوها بوده­اند که بر ایستا بودن وضعیت درآمد- اشتغال و روند تسهیلات دولتی، افزایش میزان آلودگی، افزایش عمر ابنیه و کاهش کیفیت آن­ها دلالت دارد که با توجه به نتایج تحلیل­های صورت گرفته، در مرحله اول باید زمینۀ بهبود تعلق‌خاطر در شهروندان ایجاد و در مرحله بعدی با بهبود زمینه­های ارائۀ تسهیلات دولتی، زمینه را برای گروه­های مختلف به‌منظور فعالیت هرچه بیشتر فراهم کرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

ازآفرینی شهری؛ بافت فرسوده؛ ذینفعان‌؛ آینده‌نگاری؛ زنجان

عنوان مقاله [English]

Regeneration Analysis of Urban Decay Textures with Emphasis on the Role and Function of Local Stakeholders with a Foresight Approach (Case Study: Zanjan City)

نویسندگان [English]

mohammad rasoli¹؛ Mohsen Ahdnejad Rushti²؛ Abolfazl Meshkini³؛ taghi heydari⁴

¹Associate Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Zanjan University, Zanjan, Iran.

²Associate Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Tarbiat Modarres University, Tehran, Iran.

³Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Zanjan University, Zanjan, Iran

⁴Ph.D. Student of Geography and Urban Planning, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Cities as the second revolution in human culture with a brilliant offer in the field of urban management in the modern era are facing one of its greatest challenges as worn-out textures. This study, with destructive analysis of the current planning process, has attempted to analyze the regeneration of worn-out tissues in Zanjan in the future. For this purpose, two field-library methods have been used for data collection and 40 indices have been used for the analysis in three components (economic, socio-cultural, physical-spatial). MICMAC software was used to evaluate the relationships between indicators and their performance in the urban regeneration process. Finally, 12 indicators were identified as the key factor and designed accordingly. The views of 4 groups (citizens, business, local communities, urban managers) in the SMIC environment were used to evaluate the boreholes. The results of the evaluation of the research findings showed that the regeneration of worn-out tissues in Zanjan has 64 scenarios with. In the meantime, 30 scenarios with a probability factor of 0 and 20 with a probability factor of 20 have been identified, although scenarios 64 and 50 are the most likely scenarios for static income-employment status and government amenities, increased pollution rates, increasing the life of the buildings and reducing their quality. According to the results of the analysis, in the first stage, the ground for improving the belonging of citizens should be created and in the next step, by improving the field of providing government facilities provided the ground for different groups to work as much as possible.



 


 
 



Extended abstract
Introduction:
          Today, these decay textures have become too weak areas with extensive decay and they have created a recession and many problems in the possibility of benefiting residents from new infrastructure and transportation services. Decay; is the Inefficiency and reduced efficiency of one texture compared to the efficiency of other urban textures that they mainly include the core of the city that in over time, they have failed to adapt. This is clearly the case now in most major and historical cities of the world, including Iranian cities. So cities need to change for many reasons, accordingly for years; intervention, revitalization and revitalization of ancient and historical urban tissues has become to one of the basic issues of the planning system in countries that have a rich offer of urbanization. So cities need to change for many reasons. Accordingly, many years ago, intervention, revitalization and revitalization of ancient and historical urban textures is one of the basic issues of the planning system that it has become a country with a rich history of urbanization. The emergence of this approach should be considered according to the principles proposed in urban development and sustainability. Recreating decay textures is a comprehensive and long-term process that it is accompanied by planning and evaluation and is based on the revival of space and without erosion of historical identity belonging to different eras. Reconstruction not only emphasizes the physical dimension, but also the social and economic well-being of the region.
Methodology:
        The present type of research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of data collection; it has been descriptive-analytical. Data collection is done in two forms: documentary and library. In this study, 40 regeneration indicators were analyzed in the form of three hypotheses (economic, socio-cultural, physical-spatial) ­ in MicMac software and according to experts until the finally, more key factors are extracted. Then according to the research topic it is possible to determine the possible hypotheses of recreating the decay textures of Zanjan city until to be evaluated in SMIC software  in four groups (citizens, businessmen, city managers, local communities), and in accordance with that, the possible scenarios for the reconstruction of Zanjan city should be determined and the probability of realization of each of the hypotheses is clarified by their coefficient of effect.
 
Results:
It evaluations of different groups of hypotheses for recreating decay textures of Zanjan city represents 64 scenarios have been with different degrees. In these results, 30 scenarios with a probability coefficient of 0 appeared that did not need to be analyzed. High-probability scenarios included 20 scenarios, in the meantime, local communities were the most affected by 0.98 percent, and businesses were down by 0.78 percent and according to the results of the simple algorithm, Scenario 50 has the most coordination between scenarios with the hypotheses of increasing life and reducing the quality of buildings, increasing pollution, increasing life and reducing the quality of buildings by 0.94% and it has the most to do with scenario 31 which emphasizes the realization of the hypothesis of improving participation and belonging, It was 0.17 percent convergent in the second case, scenario 64, which emphasizes the non-fulfillment of any of the hypotheses, is 0.89 percent and Scenario 31 with an emphasis on achieving the hypothesis of improving participation status and belonging to 0.61%  and it has been coordinated with other top scenarios  that its highest convergence with scenario 43 was 0.11%.
Conclusion:
        According to the results of the analysis, in order to improve the performance of regeneration and to involve actors in the field of regeneration, in the first stage, the ground for improving the belonging of citizens should be created and in the next step, by improving the field of providing government facilities provided the ground for different groups to work as much as possible, on the other hand, by applying and prioritizing the care of decay textures, reduce contamination and adverse access to services in these textures. The following suggestions are more necessary to improve the revitalization of decay textures in Zanjan;
- Prioritize the opinions and interests of different groups
- Emphasis on public participation
- Improving welfare and recreational services in the city
- Improving the process of government facilities to rehabilitate decay textures.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

: Urban regeneration, worn-out tissue, stakeholder, Foresight, Zanjan

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