برنامه ریزی و آینده‌نگاری توسعه پایدار گردشگری استان خوزستان

فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

مقاله 4، دوره 12، شماره 45، اردیبهشت 1401، صفحه 51-66   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jzpm.2020.4247

نویسندگان

محمد رحیمی^{* 1}؛ فاطمه هنری²؛ احمد رومیانی³

¹استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

²دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران

³دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی آمایش کیفیت محیطی مناطق روستایی دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت: 12 دی 1398،  تاریخ بازنگری: 19 تیر 1399،  تاریخ پذیرش: 19 تیر 1399 

چکیده

امروزه برنامه­ریزی و آینده­نگاری توسعه پایدار گردشگری توجه بسیاری از سیاستگذاران، جامعه­شناسان و برنامه­ریزان در سراسر جهان به خود معطوف کرده است، تا زمینه آینده­نگری توسعه پایدار گردشگری در ابعاد اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست محیطی فراهم شود. هدف از این پژوهش، برنامه­ریزی و آینده‌نگاری توسعه پایدار گردشگری استان خوزستان است. این پژوهش از لحاظ هدف، کاربردی و از نظر روش، ترکیبی از روش­های اسنادی و پیمایشی است. جامعه آماری این تحقیق، 40 نفر از کارشناسانی است که در بخش گردشگری از دانش و تجربه کافی برخوردار هستند. برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده­ها و اطلاعات از مدل دلفی در نرم افزار آینده نگاری میک­مک و سناریو ویزارد استفاده شد. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که با 2 بار تکرار چرخش داده­ای، شاخص پرشدگی به‌دست‌آمده برابر با 71/­93% است، که این امر مبین ضریب بالای تأثیرگذاری متغیرها و عوامل انتخاب‌شده بر یکدیگر است. همچنین بر مبنای1283­ارزش محاسبه‌شده، تعداد 346 مورد با بالاترین حجم، دارای بیشترین میزان اثر­گذاری مستقیم بر دیگر شاخص­ها پژوهش بوده است. بنابراین با توجه به داده­ها تحلیل­های پژوهش­، مطلوب­ترین سناریو، سناریو یک است، که مجموعه از شاخص مدیریت تخصصی، شرایط آب و های و اقلیم، رسانه­ها، شبکه حمل و نقل، خدمات رفاهی و پذیرایی و مناسب بودن هزینه را در بر می­گیرد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

توسعه پایدار؛ گردشگری؛ آینده‌پژوهی؛ برنامه‌ریزی سناریو؛ استان خوزستان

عنوان مقاله [English]

Planning and Foresight Sustainable Tourism Development in Khuzestan Province

نویسندگان [English]

Mohammad Rahimi¹؛ Fatima Henry²؛ ahmad roumiani³

¹Assistant Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman

²Master of Geography and Urban Planning, Bahonar University of Kerman.

³Ph.D. in Geography and Spatial Planning of Environmental Quality in Rural Zones, Mashhad Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Today, the planning and foresight of sustainable tourism development has attracted the attention of many policymakers, sociologists and planners around the world, to provide the future of sustainable tourism development in economic, social and environmental dimensions. The purpose of this study is to plan and plan for the sustainable development of tourism in Khuzestan province. This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of method, it is a combination of documentary and survey methods. The statistical population of this study is 40 experts who have sufficient knowledge and experience in the tourism sector. To analyze the data and information, Delphi model was used in Micmac futurism software and Wizard scenario. The results showed that with 2 repetitions of the data rotation, the obtained filling index is equal to 93.71%, which indicates the high coefficient of influence of the variables and the selected factors on each other. Also, based on the calculated value of 1283, 346 items with the highest volume had the highest direct impact on other research indicators. Therefore, according to the data of research analysis, the most desirable scenario is scenario one, which is a set of specialized management index, water and climate conditions, media, transportation network, welfare and reception services and Appropriateness includes cost.
Extended Abstract
 Introduction
Today, the planning and foresight of sustainable tourism development has attracted the attention of many policymakers, sociologists and planners around the world, to provide the foresight for sustainable tourism development in economic, social and environmental dimensions. Therefore, the link between future studies, research and development of the tourism industry can be considered a dramatic change in the field of modern regional planning. As of the 1970s, future science and research have become a key tool for developing regional policies, especially in the field of tourism. On the one hand, by striving for long-term future goals, while taking into account the economic and social interests of the people, it will cause the least damage to the capacities of the tourism environment and provide favorable tourism scenarios, taking into account the sustainable development model. Therefore, the use of foresight approaches in tourism studies makes it necessary to pay attention to the category of scenario planning.
Methodology
The present research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of nature based on new methods of future science, research, analysis and exploration, which has been done by using a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. Data collection was performed using documentary and field methods (questionnaire) numerically and by weighting it through Delphi method. Because the scenario writing method is in line with the opinions of experts. The statistical population of this research is experts, managers and specialists in the field of tourism in Khuzestan province. For this purpose, 40 samples were used in access, including professors of Ahvaz University, researchers, Jihad University Tourism Research Institute, who had activities and research related to tourism, and experts of Khuzestan Cultural Heritage, Handicrafts and Tourism Organization (Khuzestan General Directorate, Deputy and Library Museum). Sampling was used in full. Micmac and Scenario wizard related research software have also been used to analyze data and information.
Results and discussion
The purpose of writing different scenarios in the tourism industry is not to increase the foresight of the future, but to achieve a correct understanding of the effective strategies of the future in the growth of the tourism industry. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to determine and identify future effective strategies in the development of tourism industry in Khuzestan province with the approach of foresight and scenario writing in the study area. Therefore, the classification of effective indicators of sustainable tourism development in Khuzestan province in the framework of n * n matrix in the form of 7 general classifications and 37 sub-variables was performed and then by weighing them (from zero p) the results of cross-sectional analysis matrix were calculated. In this regard, based on the findings of Table (2), it can be said that the formulation of appropriate costs with points, 107; It has the highest coefficient of effect on other variables. And the least impact on the development variables of related academic disciplines with a score of 61; Holding exhibitions with a score of 62; have been. On the other hand, the findings showed that Scenario (A1) indicates the gap, in which case the gap between the growth of the tourism industry and expectations is high. Therefore, in this case, the Tourism Industry Development Organization expects more than the fulfillment of the central development goals, and in a way, they are the basis for sustainable tourism development. Mode (A2) indicates the stability of the Tourism Industry Organization of Khuzestan Province and considers the current situation as optimal and beneficial. In case (A3), there is a difference in the development of the tourism industry in Khuzestan province and the system relations have been in crisis, in which case it needs planning and management structure (Table 3). Finally, it was found that the status of A3 (management) with 82.3% had the largest share in the development of relevant scenarios. Therefore, the hypothesis is rejected. Also, according to the data of research analyzes, it is possible to explain scenarios with good quality in Khuzestan province.
 Conclusion
The results showed that with 2 repetitions of the data rotation, the obtained filling index is equal to 93.71%, which indicates the high coefficient of influence of the variables and the selected factors on each other. Also, based on the calculated value of 1283, 346 items with the highest volume had the highest direct impact on other research indicators. Therefore, according to the data of research analysis, the most desirable scenario is scenario one, which is a set of specialized management index, water and climate conditions, media, transportation network, welfare and reception services and Appropriateness includes cost.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Sustainable Development, Tourism, Future Research, Scenario Planning, Khuzestan Province

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