ارزیابی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تولید محصولات باغی با رویکرد تولید تصادفی مورد پژوهی : محصول خرما

فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

مقاله 3، دوره 12، شماره 48، بهمن 1399، صفحه 56-82   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

ندا علی احمدی^{* 1}؛ محمود هاشمی تبار²؛ سید مهدی حسینی²

¹دانشکده علوم محیط زیستی و کشاورزی پایدار،دانشگان سیستان و بلوچستان،ایران، زاهدان

²استادیار دانشکده علوم زیست محیطی و کشاورزی پایدار،دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان،زاهدان

تاریخ دریافت: 11 مهر 1396،  تاریخ بازنگری: 23 دی 1396،  تاریخ پذیرش: 13 شهریور 1397 

چکیده

در این مطالعه برای ارزیابی اثر تغییرات اقلیم بر عملکرد و ریسک تولید محصول خرما در ایران از پارامترهای اقلیمی در مناطق گرم و مرطوب و گرم و خشک در بازه‌ی زمانی 95-1361 استفاده شد. ق تابع تولیدتصادفی جاست و پاپ برآوردگردید. نتایج شاخص‌های دما و بارش به ترتیب برای منطقه گرم و مرطوب 45/0 و 66/0 و منطقه گرم و خشک 04/3 و 18/0 می باشد که نشان دهنده اثرگذاری منطقه‌ای هستند. تغییرات سالانه آب و هوایی،باعث ایجاد شرایط نامساعد برای کشاورزان شد. تغییرات دمای حدی سالیانه و تغییرات نامنظم بارشی در طول سال‌های گذشته و همچنین تغییر اقلیم و گرم شدن هوا در آینده می‌تواند خطرات جدی برای کاهش محصول در بخش کشاورزی در پی داشته باشد. با توجه به تغییرات نابهنگام دما و بارش در مناطق گرم و خشک و گرم و مرطوب توصیه می‌شود که به منظور کاهش ریسک عملکرد خرما در این مناطق از از ارقام مقاوم خرما نسبت به تغییرات دمایی و بارشی استفاده شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

ریسک؛ تغییر اقلیم؛ مدل جاست و پاپ؛ عملکرد خرما؛ کشاورزی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of the effect of climate change on the production of horticultural products with a randomized production approach, Case Study: Date product

نویسندگان [English]

Neda Aliahmadi¹؛ Mahmood Hashmitabar²؛ seyed Mehdi Hoseini²

¹Ph.D. Student in Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Sistan and Baluchestan University

²Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Sistan and Baluchestan University.

چکیده [English]

The most effective climatic variables were identified using Fayoucan's optimization algorithm. In order to test the effect of climate variables on yield and date risk, for each of these areas, the random production function Jost and pop was estimated. The results of temperature and precipitation indexes were for hot and humid regions (0.45 and 0.66), and hot and dry regions (3.04 and 0.18), which indicate regional impact. Annual climate change has caused bad weather for farmers. Annual temperature changes and irregular rainfall changes over the past years, as well as climate change and warming in the future, could lead to serious dangers in reducing crop yields in agriculture. Regarding the unforeseen changes in temperature and precipitation in warm, dry, warm and humid areas, it is recommended that, in order to reduce the risk of yield for dates in the areas, such methods as the use of tolerant cultivars of dates in comparison with temperature and rainfall changes in the regions are recommended.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Risk, Climate Change, Fantastic and Pope Model, Date Function, Agriculture

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