ارزیابی اثر ساختار جمعیتی بر انتشار گاز دی‌اکسید کربن در ایران

فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

مقاله 4، دوره 12، شماره 48، بهمن 1399، صفحه 83-102   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

قاسم لیانی سنگ نیشتی¹؛ نوید کارگر ده بیدی^{* 2}؛ فاطمه فتحی³

¹دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز

²دانشجو

³گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز

تاریخ دریافت: 06 مرداد 1397،  تاریخ بازنگری: 24 مهر 1397،  تاریخ پذیرش: 19 مرداد 1399 

چکیده

ساختار جمعیتی در ایران همچون سایر مناطق دنیا، در حال تغییر است. این تغییرات با کاهش سهم کودکان و افزایش سهم افراد مسن از جمعیت کل همراه است به گونه‌ای که بر اساس پیش‌بینی‌های سازمان ملل از سال 2015 تا 2030 جمعیت افراد مسن در ایران دو برابر خواهد شد. از این رو هدف اصلی این مطالعه بررسی اثر ساختار جمعیتی بر انتشار آلودگی ناشی از گاز دی اکسید کربن در ایران در طی دوره 1350 الی 1394 می‌باشد. در این پژوهش با توجه به نتایج ایستایی متغیرها از روش هم‌جمعی در قالب رهیافت خود رگرسیونی با وقفه‌های گسترده (ARDL) استفاده شده است. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که به ترتیب دو بازه جمعیتی (64-15) و (14-0) سال تاثیر بالایی بر سرانه انتشار گاز CO2 دارند، درحالی که جمعیت سالخوردگی (65 سال به بالا) اثرگذاری کمتری در انتشار گاز CO2 دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

ساختار جمعیتی؛ انتشار گاز دی‌اکسید کربن؛ ARDL؛ ایران

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assess the Effect of Population Structure on Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

G. Layani¹؛ - N. Kargar Dehbidi²؛ F. F. Fathi³

¹Ph.D. Student of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University,Shiraz, Iran.

²Ph. D. Student of Economics of Natural Resources and Environment, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University

³Assistant Professor of Economics, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University.

چکیده [English]

The demographic structure, as in other parts of the world, in Iran is changing. These changes are associated with a reduction in the share of children and an increase in the share of the elderly of the total population. The United Nations has predicted that in the years 2015-2030, the population of the elderly will double in Iran. Accordingly, the main objective of this study is to investigate the effect of demographic structure on carbon dioxide emissions in Iran during the period from 1350 to 1394. In this study, based on the results of variables stationary, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach was applied. The results of the research indicate that the two demographic (15-64 years) and (0-14 years) periods have a significant impact on CO2 per capita emissions, while the aging population (65 years and older) has a lower effect on CO2 emissions.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Population Structure, CO2 Emission, ARDL, Iran

مراجع

- Ahmad, A. Zhao, Y. Shahbaz, M. Bano, S. Zhang, Z. Wang, S. & Liu, Y. (2016). Carbon emissions, energy consumption and economic growth: An aggregate and disaggregate analysis of the Indian economy. Energy Policy, 96, 131-143.

- Al-Mulali, U. & Ozturk, I. (2015). The effect of energy consumption, urbanization, trade openness, industrial output, and the political stability on the environmental degradation in the MENA (Middle East and North African) region. Energy, 84, 382-389.

- Anamradnejad, R. (2015). Evaluation of quantitative and qualitative characteristics of housing in Iran during the years 1390-1345. Urban Research and Planing, 6(20): 35-50.

- Bastanifar, I. & Sameti, M. (2004). An inquiry of green tax effect on decreasing of air pollution of Isfahan products in Isfahan Province. GIAN and International Symposium and Workshop Isfahan University, 14-18,.271-282.

- Cole, M. A. & Neumayer, E. (2004). Examining the impact of demographic factors on air pollution. Population & environment, 26(1), 5-21.

- Dalton, M. B. O'Neill, A. Prskawetz, Jiang, L. & Pitkin, J. (2008). Population aging and future carbon emissions in the United States, Energy Economics, 30, 642–675.

- Fan, Y. Liu, L. C. Wu, G. & Wei, Y. M. (2006). Analyzing impact factors of CO₂ emissions using the STIRPAT model. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 26(4), 377-395.

- Gujarati, D. N. (2009). Basic econometrics. Tata McGraw-Hill Education.

- Halicioglu, F. (2009). An econometric study of CO₂ emissions, energy consumption, income and foreign trade in Turkey. Energy Policy, 37(3), 1156-1164.

- Hassan, K., & Salim, R. (2015). Population ageing, income growth and CO₂ emission: Empirical evidence from high income OECD countries. Journal of Economic Studies, 42(1), 54-67.

- Kasman, A., & Duman, Y. S. (2015). CO₂ emissions, economic growth, energy consumption, trade and urbanization in new EU member and candidate countries: a panel data analysis. Economic Modelling, 44, 97-103.

- Liddle, B. (2004). Demographic dynamics and per capita environmental impact: Using panel regressions and household decompositions to examine population and transport. Population and Environment, 26(1), 23–39.

- Liddle, B. (2011). Consumption-driven environmental impact and age-structure change in OECD countries: A cointegration-STIRPAT analysis. Demographic Research, 24(30), 749–770.

- Liddle, B. (2014). Impact of Population, age structure and urbanization on carbon emissions/energy consumption: evidence from macro- level, cross-country analyses; Population and Environment, 35, 286- 304.

- Liddle, B. & Lung, S. (2010). Age structure, urbanization, and climate change in developed countries: Revisiting STIRPAT for disaggregated population and consumption–related environmental impacts. Population and Environment, 31, 317–343.

- Magazzino, C. (2016). CO₂ emissions, economic growth, and energy use in the Middle East countries: A panel VAR approach. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 11(10), 960-968.

- Meng, X. & Han, J. (2018). Roads, economy, population density, and CO₂: A city-scaled causality analysis. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 128, 508-515.

- Mikayilov, J. I. Galeotti, M. & Hasanov, F. J. (2018). The Impact of Economic Growth on CO2 Emissions in Azerbaijan (No. 102). IEFE, Center for Research on Energy and Environmental Economics and Policy, Universita'Bocconi, Milano, Italy.

- Mohammad Bagheri, A. (2010). Investigating the short-term and long-term relationships between GDP, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emisshions in Iran. Energy Economics Studies, 7(27):101-129.

- Moradhasel, N. & Mazini, A. (2008). Assessing the role of government in Iran's environmental changes (environmental economics approach). Environmental Science and Technology, 4: 11-24.

- Okada, A. (2012). Is an increased elderly population related to decrease CO₂ emissions from road transportation? Energy Policy, 45, 286–292.

- Pesaran, H.M. & pesaran, B. (1997). Working with Microfit 4.0: An Introduction to Econometrics, Oxford University Press, Oxford.

- Pesaran, H.M. & Shin, Y. (1998). An autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach to cointegration analysis, In (Ed) S. Storm. The Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century, Chapter II. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

- Pesaran, M. H. Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.

- Poumanyvong, P. & Kaneko, S. (2010). Does urbanization lead to less energy use and lower CO₂ emissions? A cross-country analysis. Ecological Economics, 70(2), 434-444.

- Shahbaz, M. Loganathan, N. Muzaffar, A. T. Ahmed, K. & Jabran, M. A. (2016). How urbanization affects CO₂ emissions in Malaysia? The application of STIRPAT model. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 57, 83-93.

- Shi, A. (2003). The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions, 1975–1996: evidence from pooled cross-country data. Ecological Economics, 44(1), 29-42.

- Shrestha, M. B. & Chowdhury, K. (2005). ARDL modelling approach to testing the financial liberalization hypothesis. Research Online: University of Wollongong.

- Siddiki, J. U. (2000). Demand for money in Bangladesh: A cointegration analysis. Applied Economics, 32(15), 1977-1984.

- Statistical Center of Iran. (2018). http://amar.sci.org.ir

- United Nations. (2015). Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. World Population Ageing 2015 (ST/ESA/SER.A/390).

- Wang, S. X., Fu, Y. B., & Zhang, Z. G. (2015). Population growth and the environmental Kuznets curve. China Economic Review, 36, 146-165.

- Wei, Y.M. Liu, L.C. & Fan, Y. (2008). China Energy Report (2008): CO₂ Emissions Research. Science Press, Beijing.

- Yang, Y. Zhao, T. Wang, Y. & Shi, Z. (2015). Research on impacts of population-related factors on carbon emissions in Beijing from 1984 to 2012. Environmental Impact Assessment Review, 55, 45-53.

- Ying, F. Liu, L.C. Wu, G. Wei, Y.M. (2006). Analyzing impact factors of CO₂ emissions using the STIRPAT model. Environ Impact Assess Rev 26, 377–395.

- York, R. (2007). Demographic trends and energy consumption in European Union Nations (1960–2025), Social Science Research, 36, 855–872.

- York, R. Rosa, E. A. & Dietz, T. (2002). Bridging environmental science with environmental policy: Plasticity of population, affluence, and technology. Social Science Quarterly, 83(1), 18-34.