اثر قیمت حامل‌های انرژی بر قیمت مواد غذایی: رویکرد خودرگرسیونی با وقفه های توزیعی

فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

مقاله 8، دوره 12، شماره 48، بهمن 1399، صفحه 171-188   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

حمید بلالی^{* 1}؛ نادر مهرگان²؛ اکبر باجلان³

¹عضو هیئت علمی اقتصاد کشاورزی/ دانشگاه بوعلی سینا

²همدان -دانشگاه بوعلی سینا- گروه اقتصاد

³همدان -دانشگاه بوعلی سینا- دانشکده کشاورزی

تاریخ دریافت: 24 بهمن 1397،  تاریخ بازنگری: 27 آذر 1398،  تاریخ پذیرش: 19 مرداد 1399 

چکیده

افزایش قیمت حامل‌های انرژی با توجه به سهم آن‌ها در هزینه‌های تولید، بطور مستقیم شاخص بهای تولیدی بخش‌های مختلف اقتصاد را متأثر ساخته و سطح رفاه جامعه را کاهش می دهد. بطوریکه روند افزایشی قیمت های جهانی حامل های انرژی و مواد غذایی در سال های اخیر، باعث علاقمندی اقتصاد دانان به بررسی ارتباط بین این دو متغیر شده است. همچنین ضریب جمله تصحیح خطا، ECM(-1) در الگوی برآورد شده عدد 0.76- برآورد گردید، که نشان می-دهد در هر دوره (سال) 0.76 از عدم تعادل کوتاه‌مدت شاخص قیمت مواد غذایی به جهت رسیدن به تعادل بلندمدت تعدیل می‌شود. نتایج نشان داد که در بلندمدت با افزایش قیمت حامل های انرژی و به خاطر همسو شدن تولیدکننده با افزایش قیمت حامل‌های انرژی و اثر سایر زیر بخش‌هایی که از این افزایش قیمت متأثر شده‌اند و بر مقدار تولید مؤثر هستند، قیمت مواد غذایی افزایش چشمگیری می یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

شاخص قیمت‌ها؛ حامل‌های انرژی؛ مواد غذایی؛ الگوی خود توضیح با وقفه های گسترده(ARDL)

عنوان مقاله [English]

The impact of energy prices index on food prices index: Application of Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Model

نویسندگان [English]

Hamid Balali¹؛ nader mehrgan²؛ Akbar Bajelan³

¹Associate Professor of of Agricultural Economics, Bu Ali Sina University, Hamedan. Iran.

²Professor of Agricultural Economics, Bu Ali Sina University, Hamedan. Iran.

³Master of Science of Agricultural Economics, Bu Ali Sina University, Hamedan. Iran.

چکیده [English]

Increasing the price of energy carriers, due to their contribution to production costs, directly affects the production price index of different sectors of the economy and reduces the welfare of the society. The rising trend of global prices for energy and food suppliers in recent years has made economists interested in examining the relationship between these two variables. In this study the effects of energy prices on the food price index was investigated by using of Atou-Regressive Distributed Lag model at the years of 1980- 2016. Also, the error correction term, ECM (-1) was estimated in the estimated model of 0.76, which indicates that in e The results showed that in the long run, with the rise in the price of energy carriers and because of the manufacturer's alignment with the rise in the price of energy carriers and the effect of other sub-sectors that have been affected by this rise in prices, and they affect the amount of production, the price of food increases dramatically.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Price Index, Enerpy Price, Food, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag Model

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