زیرکشت ارزیابی پیامدهای اقتصادی اثرات توسعه سطح زعفران در الگوی زراعی دشت قزوین

فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

مقاله 1، دوره 13، شماره 1، اردیبهشت 1400، صفحه 1-24   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

ابوذر پرهیزکاری^*

دانشجوی دکترای اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، واحد تهران شرق، تهران، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت: 29 اسفند 1394،  تاریخ بازنگری: 11 تیر 1399،  تاریخ پذیرش: 26 مهر 1399 

چکیده

طی سال‌های اخیر، درآمد نسبتاً خوب، دوره کوتاه‌مدت کشت و نیازآبی محدود زعفران، کشاورزان دشت قزوین را بر آن داشته تا در اراضی مستعد خود به کشت این محصول روی آورند. بدین منظور، در این تحقیق اثرات افزایش سطح زیرکشت زعفران بر الگوی کشت، میزان مصرف نهاده‌ها و سود ناخالص کشاورزان دشت قزوین تحلیل و ارزیابی شد. برای تحقق این هدف، از مدل برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت (PMP) و رهیافت تابع تولید با کشش جانشینی ثابت (CES) استفاده شد. داده‌های موردنیاز مربوط به سال 93-1392 بود که با تکمیل پرسشنامه‌ از 127 کشاورز نمونه جمع‌آوری شد. نتایج نشان داد که با ورود زعفران به الگوی فعلی مزارع نماینده، الگوی زراعی در جهت کاهش سطح زیرکشت محصولات با هزینه تولید بیشتر و نیازآبی بالاتر مانند ذرت دانه‌ای، چغندرقند و کلزا در سطح مزارع کوچک (از 78/-1 تا 9/13- درصد)، متوسط (از 92/4- تا 1/14- درصد) و بزرگ (از 05/7- تا 4/16- درصد) تغییر می‌کند. در این بین، کشاورزان با مزارع بزرگ بیشترین تغییرات را در الگوی کشت فعلی تجربه می‌کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

الگوی زراعی؛ برنامه ریزی ریاضی مثبت؛ تحلیل سیاستی؛ زعفران؛ دشت قزوین

عنوان مقاله [English]

Economic analysis the effects of increase saffron acreage on cropping pattern, the consumption of inputs and farmer's gross profit in Qazvin plain

نویسندگان [English]

A. Parhizkari

Ph.D. Student in Agricultural Economics, Payame Noor University, East Tehran Branch, Tehran, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Relatively good income, short period of cultivation and limited water requirement of saffron, farmers of Qazvin Plain made intend to cultivation of this product in their fertile lands in recent years. For this purpose, in present study the effects of increase acreage of saffron on cropping pattern, farmers' gross profit and the consumption of inputs were investigated. To achieve this goal, from Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model and product function with Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) were used. The required data are related to years 2012-2013 that by completing the questionnaires from 127 sample farmers were collected. The results showed that with the arrival of saffron to the current pattern of representative farms, cropping pattern changes in site reducing the acreage of products with more cost and higher water requirement such as corn, sugar beet and canola in small farms (from -1/78 to-13/9 percent), medium farms (from -4/92 to-14/1 percent) and large farms (from -7/05 to-16/4 percent). In this regard the farmers with large farms experiences the most changes in the current cropping pattern.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Cropping Pattern, Saffron, Positive Mathematical Programming, Policy Analysis, Qazvin Plain

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