بررسی روندهای تصادفی مشترک بین ارزش‌افزوده بخش کشاورزی ایران و شرکای عمده تجاری

فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

مقاله 4، دوره 13، شماره 2 - شماره پیاپی 50، مرداد 1400، صفحه 63-81   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

مریم قره جعفری¹؛ کیومرث شهبازی^{* 2}؛ حسن خداویسی³

¹دانشجوی دکتری علوم اقتصادی، گروه اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه ارومیه.

²استاد گروه اقتصاد ومدیریت دانشگاه ارومیه.

³دانشیار گروه اقتصاد و مدیریت دانشگاه ارومیه.

تاریخ دریافت: 19 دی 1397،  تاریخ بازنگری: 28 اسفند 1397،  تاریخ پذیرش: 26 آذر 1399 

چکیده

یکی از هدف‌های اصلی هر کشور، تأمین مواد غذایی موردنیاز جامعه است که از طریق رشد در بخش کشاورزی قابل دستیابی است. در این راستا، مطالعه‌ی حاضر تلاش کرده است؛ روندهای تصادفی مشترک بین ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی ایران و کشورهای طرف عمده‌ی تجاری، طی دوره‌ی زمانی 2015-1967 را مورد بررسی قرار دهد. برای نیل به این هدف؛ از روش گونزالو و گرنجر که در چارچوب مدل هم جمعی چند متغیره‌ی یوهانس و یوسلیوس می‌باشد، استفاده شده است. نتایج تحلیل روندهای تصادفی مشترک نیز گویای این واقعیت است که کلیه‌ی کشورها واکنش شدیدی نسبت به روندهای یاد شده از خود نشان می‌دهند اما کشور چین رهبری ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی را بر عهده دارد. بر این اساس لازم است که به منظور دستیابی به رشد مستمر در کشاورزی، دولت از طریق کاهش تعرفه بر واردات بخش کشاورزی و دادن یارانه به صادرات بخش کشاورزی، تجارت در بخش کشاورزی خود را با کشور چین گسترش دهد تا بخش کشاورزی داخلی از رشد ارزش افزوده بخش کشاورزی جهانی بهره‌مند گردد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

روند تصادفی مشترک؛ روش گونزالو و گرنجر؛ رشد بخش کشاورزی؛ هم‌جمعی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the common stochastic trend between values added of agricultural of Iran and its main trading partners

نویسندگان [English]

maryam garejafary¹؛ kiumars shahbazi²؛ hasan khodaveysi³

¹Ph.D. Student, Economic Sciences, Industrial Economics, University of Urmia. Saved Community

²Professor of Urmia University.

³Associate Professor of Urmia University.

چکیده [English]

One of the main goals of each country is to provide the food needed by society, which can be achieved through growth in agriculture. In this regard, the present study has tried to investigate the common stochastic trends between the value added of the agricultural sector of Iran and its major partner trading in the period of 1967-2015. To achieve this aims, the Gonzalo and Granger method, which is used in the framework of the multivariate coherent model of Johansen and Juselius (1990), has been used. The results show that there is 2 Correction and two common stochastic trend of agricultural value added in the studied countries, which reflects the complete lack of long-term integration between this group of countries. . Accordingly, in order to achieve sustainable growth in agriculture, the government will expand its agricultural trade with China by reducing tariffs on agricultural imports and subsidizing agricultural exports, so that the domestic agricultural sector will grow from value-added agriculture to the global agricultural sector.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

stochastic Common trend, Gonzalo and Granger's Method, Growth of the Agricultural Sector, Correction

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