ارزیابی سناریوهای مختلف زلزله در شهر تهران با رویکرد انعطاف پذیری شهری

فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

مقاله 11، دوره 10، شماره 40، بهمن 1399، صفحه 163-176   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

کیانوش ذاکرحقیقی^{* 1}؛ محسن مهرجو²

¹دانشیار گروه شهرسازی، واحد همدان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، همدان، ایران

²دانشجوی دکتری شهرسازی، واحد شهر قدس، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران ، ایران

تاریخ دریافت: 19 آبان 1399،  تاریخ بازنگری: 23 آذر 1399،  تاریخ پذیرش: 25 آذر 1399 

چکیده

زلزله در مناطق شهری در سراسر جهان به یک نگرانی عمده برای ساکنین و مدیران شهری به دلیل خسارتهای بالقوه به زندگی و آسیب گسترده به زیر ساختهای شهری که پس از زلزله رخ می‌دهد، تبدیل شده است. کشور ایران یکی از لرزه خیزترین کشورهای جهان محسوب شده که تقریبا تمامی مناطق آن در معرض وقوع زلزله‌های متوسط تا بزرگ قرار دارند شهر تهران نیز به عنوان پایتخت کشور، از این قائده مستثنی نبوده. از سال 1830 میلادی ( زلزله 7 ریشتر شمیرانات ) تاکنون هیچ زلزله شدیدی را تجربه نکرده است. بر طبق آمار، دوره بازگشت زلزله شدید در تهران 150 سال می‌باشد. شهر تهران براساس سرشماری نفوس و مسکن با جمعیتی بالغ بر 8.5 میلیون نفر درخود جای داده است این در حالی است که در شهر تهران 3268 هکتار از نواحی شهر تهران به عنوان بافت فرسوده شناسایی گردیده است. پیش بینی آسیب‌های لرزه ای مبتنی بر سناریوهای محتمل در شهر تهران می‌تواند تصمیم گیران را جهت شناسایی اولویتهای برنامه ریزی جهت کاهش خسارت کمک نماید. در این پژوهش سعی بر آن است با استفاده از سناریوهای محتمل زلزله شهر تهران با استفاده از نرم افزارهای تحلیل، میزان خسارات وارده را ارزیابی و درانتها بر اساس نقشه‌های موجود، پهنه‌های در اولویت اقدام جهت برنامه ریزی مشخص گردد تا از این طریق بتوان انعطاف شهر در برابر بحران‌های طبیعی را مورد ارزیابی قرار داد. روش کار در این پژوهش به اینصورت است که با توجه به آخرین اطلاعات موجود و استفاده از نرم افزار ARCGIS تمامی شهر تهران به سلولهای500 *500 تبدیل گردیده و تمامی اطلاعات موجود در این سلولها در نرم افزار Raduis وارد گردیده است که براساس سناریوهای احتمالی زلزله نقشه‌های متفاوتی تهیه گردیده است. در انتها با مقایسه هر سلول بحرانی ترین حالت در نظر گرفته شده و در انتها نقشه بحرانی زلزله و مشخص کردن مناطق بحرانی ارائه گردیده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

انعطاف شهری؛ زلزله؛ سناریوهای محتمل؛ Raduis

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of Various Earthquake Scenarios in Tehran with the Approach of Urban Flexibility

نویسندگان [English]

kianoosh zaker haghighi¹؛ Mohsen Mehrjo²

¹Assisstant Professor, Hamedan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Hamedan, Iran

²Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Urban Planning and Design, Shahr-e-Qods Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Objective: Earthquakes in urban areas worldwide have become a significant concern for residents and city administrators because of potential losses to life and widespread damage to urban infrastructure that occurs after the earthquake. Iran is considered one of the most critical countries globally. Almost all of its regions are subject to medium to large earthquakes. Tehran, as the capital of the country, is no exception to this rule. Since 1830, no earthquake has ever experienced severe earthquakes.
Methods: This study aims to prepare an earthquake scenario and identify regions prone to earthquake risk in Tehran City.
Results: The information about the earthquake in Tehran is calculated based on the previous studies of the prevention and management of the Tehran crisis, according to distance and fault arrangement, and the depth of the earthquake. The results were calculated based on three seismic scenarios of Parchin, Niavaran, Moshae, and Varmin, and for each of these scenarios, there was a map of human and construction loss. Considering that the point is given to each of the 500 x 500 networks in each scenario, the most considerable amount obtained in each scenario is presented to the networks mentioned above as the resultant of scenarios, and the consequent result is presented as the resulting maps of an earthquake.
Conclusion: Different maps have been prepared based on possible earthquake scenarios. The most critical situation is considered by comparing each cell, and in the end, the critical map of the earthquake and the identification of critical areas are presented. As a simple software and with the help of GIS software, RADIUS software can help managers and urban planners reach a flexible urban environment. In the earthquake, most of the earthquake damage and the earthquake-related to the fault will be Niavaran. Most of the casualties in the northeast of Tehran will be due to the population density, which is required to pay attention to urban managers in these areas to emergency housing centers, hospitals, and more attention to construction considerations in these areas.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Urban Flexibility, Earthquakes, Possible Scenarios, Raduis

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