بررسی آثار تغییر نرخ ارز بر ارزش افزوده‌ی بخش‌کشاورزی ایران و ارائه سیاست‌های حمایتی لازم در شرایط فرارو

فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

مقاله 7، دوره 14، شماره 1، اردیبهشت 1401، صفحه 92-112   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jae.2022.22901.2076

نویسنده

کوهسار خالدی^*

استادیار پژوهشی مؤسسه‌ پژوهش‌های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعه‌ روستایی، تهران، ایران

تاریخ دریافت: 13 مهر 1398،  تاریخ بازنگری: 30 اردیبهشت 1399،  تاریخ پذیرش: 30 فروردین 1401 

چکیده

مقدمه و هدف: تغییر نرخ ارز از طریق تغییر قیمت‌های تمام شده و اثرگذاری بر تجارت نهاده‌ها و محصولات کشاورزی، باعث بروز آثار مثبت و منفی بر متغیرهای اقتصادی این بخش از جمله تراز تجاری و ارزش افزوده‌ی آن خواهد شد. این مطالعه به دنبال بررسی اثرگذاری نرخ ارز بر ارزش افزوده‌ی کشاورزی ایران و ارائه‌ی سیاست‌های حمایتی لازم می‌باشد.
مواد و روش‌ها: در مطالعه‌ی حاضر، با استفاده از آمارهای 96-1357، آثار تغییرات نرخ ارز آزاد بر ارزش افزوده‌ی بخش کشاورزی ایران در قالب یک مدل‌ رگرسیونی ARDL، برآورد و مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است.
یافته‌ها: نتایج حاکی از اثر مثبت معنی‌دار اما باوقفه‌ی افزایش نرخ ارز آزاد و اثر منفی معنی‌دار اما باوقفه‌ی بی‌ثباتی نرخ ارز آزاد بر میزان ارزش افزوده‌ی کشاورزی در کوتاه‌مدت است. در بلندمدت، نرخ ارز آزاد و بی‌ثباتی نرخ ارز آزاد، تاثیر معنی‌داری بر ارزش افزوده‌ی کشاورزی ایران ندارند و رشد اقتصادی بخش کشاورزی در بلندمدت، تابع سرمایه‌گذاری است.
بحث و نتیجه‌گیری: برای حمایت از کشاورزی در شرایط فرارو و در راستای حفظ رشد اقتصادی آن، مدیریت هدفمند تامین نهاده‌های کشاورزی، افزایش قیمت خرید تضمینی محصولات، پرداخت یارانه‌های نهاده‌ای، تزریق سرمایه‌ی دولتی در کشاورزی و حمایت از سرمایه‌گذاری خصوصی در کشاورزی پیشنهاد می‌شوند.
طبقه‌بندی JEL: F13, M38, Q13, Q17, Q28

کلیدواژه‌ها

نرخ ارز؛ سیاست‌های حمایتی جبرانی؛ بخش کشاورزی؛ ایران

عنوان مقاله [English]

Effects of Exchange Rate Changes on the Value Added of Iran's Agriculture Sector And providing necessary support policies In forwarding conditions

نویسندگان [English]

KOOHSAR KHALEDI

Research Assistant Professor of Agricultural Planning, Economic and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI), Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

Changes in the exchange rate through changing prices and affecting the trade of inputs and agricultural products will have positive and negative effects on economic variables such as trade balance and its added value. The effect of the exchange rate (its rate and instability) on Iran's agricultural value-added as a study objective was studied using 1977-2018 statistics. results showed a significant positive effect of free exchange rate lag and significant negative effect of free exchange rate volatility on agricultural value added in the short-run; in long run, free exchange rate and free exchange rate volatility had no significant effect on value-added of Iran,s agriculture. The long-term economic growth of the agricultural sector depends on investment. to support agriculture in the forward conditions and in order to maintain its economic growth, targeted management of agricultural inputs, increased guaranteed purchase prices of products, payment of institutional subsidies, injection of public capital into agriculture, and support for private investment in agriculture are proposed.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Exchange Rate, Protection Support Policies, Agriculture sector, Iran

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