شناسایی پیشران‌های کلیدی توسعه کلان‌شهر اهواز با رویکرد آینده نگاری راهبردی

فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

مقاله 15، دوره 12، شماره 46، مرداد 1401، صفحه 227-244   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jzpm.2022.5363

نویسندگان

مسعود صفایی پور^{* 1}؛ یحیی جعفری²

¹استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز ،ایران

²دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنا‌مه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز ،ایران

تاریخ دریافت: 28 مهر 1397،  تاریخ بازنگری: 19 بهمن 1397،  تاریخ پذیرش: 06 مهر 1398 

چکیده

چالش‌های متعدد مدیریت شهری ضرورت داشتن آمادگی برای اتفاقات احتمالی را به یک ضرورت انکارناپذیر تبدیل کرده است؛ در این میان، چالش‌های توسعه شهر اهواز به دلیل استخراج نفت، ریزگردها و نبود یک رویکرد برنامه‌ریزی مبتنی بر پیش بینی چالش‌های آتی، پررنگ‌تر بوده است. این پژوهش با هدف شناسایی پیشران‌های کلیدی مدیریت توسعه شهری در کلان‌شهر اهواز انجام شده است. بنابراین، این پژوهش از لحاظ هدف، از نوع پژوهش‌های کاربردی بوده که مبتنی بر رویکرد آینده پژوهی انجام است. جامعه آماری این پژوهش 46 متخصص دانشگاهی آشنا به مسائل شهری اهواز بوده است. با مشارکت متخصصین ، 33 متغیر شناسایی گردید. بر اساس نتایج به دست آمده، پیشران نفت و گاز با اثرگذاری 74، اقتصاد دانش‌بنیان اثرگذاری 64، مشارکت سیاسی شهروندان با اثرگذاری 73 و نخبه محوری با اثرگذاری 64 از اهمیت زیادی در توسعه شهر اهواز برخوردار است. علاوه بر این، از مجموع پیشران‌های اثرگذار بر توسعه شهری اهواز، 13 پیشران به‌عنوان پیشران کلیدی توسعه شهر اهواز انتخاب گردید که از مهمترین آنها علاوه بر موارد گفته شده می‌توان به پیشران‌های کارآفرینی و نوآوری، توسعه نهادهای مدنی، سیاست‌های تعادل ناحیه‌ای، توسعه مبتنی بر حمل‌ونقل عمومی، مدیریت شهری کارآمد، درآمد پایدار و تأمین زیرساخت‌های شهر الکترونیک اشاره تمود. قرارگیری پیشران‌ها بر روی صفحه ماتریس نشان داد که سیستم توسعه شهری اهواز سیستم ناپایداری است که عمدتاً ناشی از عدم کارامدی روش‌های مدیریت شهری بوده و بیانگر آسیب‌پذیری توسعه شهری اهواز است. در نهایت با توجه یافته‌ها، پیشنهادهای کلیدی در راستای استفاده از رویکرد نخبه‌محوری و مدیریت مبتنی بر مشارکت شهروندان ارائه شده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

توسعه شهری؛ پیشران کلیدی توسعه؛ آینده‌نگاری؛ کلان‌شهر اهواز

عنوان مقاله [English]

Identification of proponents of Ahvaz metropolis development with a strategic foresight approach

نویسندگان [English]

Msoud Safaiepour¹؛ Yahia Jafari²

¹Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz . Ahvaz, Iran

²PhD Student of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz.Ahvaz.Iran

چکیده [English]

Several challenges to urban management have made it necessary to make the preparation for possible events an undeniable necessity; among other things, the development challenges of the Ahvaz city due to oil extraction, microstates and the lack of a planning approach based on predicting future challenges are tall It has been. This research is aimed at identifying key factors of urban development management in Ahvaz city. Therefore, this research in terms of purpose is a type of applied research that is based on a futuristic approach. The statistical population of this research is 46 academic staff familiar with Ahvaz urban issues. With the participation of experts, 33 variables were identified. Based on the results, the propellant of oil and gas with the effect of 74, the economics of knowledgeable actors 64, the political participation of citizens with a 73 effect and elite axis with the effect of 64 is of great importance in the development of Ahvaz. In addition, from the total number of influencers influencing Ahwaz urban development, 13 proponents were selected as the key driver of the development of Ahwaz city. The most important of these were entrepreneurship and innovation, development of civil institutions, regional equilibrium policies, development based on Public transportation, efficient urban management, sustainable incomes and the provision of electronic city infrastructure.. The placement of factors on the matrix screen showed that the Ahvaz urban development system is a system of instability, which is mainly due to the inefficiency of urban management methods and indicates the vulnerability of Ahvaz city development. Finally, with regard to the findings, key suggestions have been made towards the use of an elitist approach and citizen-centered management.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Urban development, Key Propulsion of development, Foreshortening, Metropolis of Ahvaz

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