واکاوی خشکی زاینده‌رود و پیامدهای اقتصادی- سیاسی آن بر جامعة کشاورزان شرق اصفهان

فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

مقاله 6، دوره 12، شماره 46، مرداد 1401، صفحه 77-92   

نوع مقاله: مقاله های برگرفته از پایان نامه

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jzpm.2022.5365

نویسندگان

اصغر محمدی^{* 1}؛ منصور حقیقتیان²؛ حسین بهزادفر³

¹استادیار گروه جامعه شناسی، دانشگاه آزاد، دهاقان ، ایران

²استاد گروه جامعه شناسی، دانشگاه آزاد، دهاقان ، ایران

³دانشجوی دکتری گروه جامعه شناسی، دانشگاه آزاد، دهاقان ، ایران

تاریخ دریافت: 20 بهمن 1398،  تاریخ بازنگری: 04 بهمن 1399،  تاریخ پذیرش: 22 آذر 1399 

چکیده

خشکسالی و تأثیرات اقلیمی، کم‌آبی را به بحران اساسی در پایداریِ حیات‌اقتصادی و سیاسی بسیاری از روستاها در مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک تبدیل نموده است. درحال حاضر خشک‌شدن رودخانة زاینده‌رود از مهم‌ترین چالش‌های اصفهان است؛ که علاوه بر تنش‌های اجتماعی سبب بروز بسیاری از تأثیرات سیاسی و اقتصادی نیز شده است و شعاع تأثیرات آن در شرق اصفهان بیش از سایر مناطق بوده است. از این رو پژوهش کاربردی حاضر با هدف واکاوی خشکی زاینده‌رود و پیامدهای اقتصادی- سیاسی آن برجامعة کشاورزان شرق اصفهان با روش پیمایش انجام شد. جامعة‌آماری پژوهش سرپرستان خانوار کشاورز شرق اصفهان بودند(41000 =N)؛ که بر اساس فرمول کوکران و با روش نمونه‌گیری تصادفی از نوع خوشه‌ای تعداد (380) نفر به عنوان نمونه انتخاب شدند. جمع آوری داده‌ها از طریق پرسش‌نامة محقق‌ساخته‌شده و تجزیه‌ و تحلیل اطلاعات با روش تحلیل‌عاملیِ‌تأییدی و با استفاده از نرم‌افزار amos و Lisrel صورت گرفت. یافته‌هایِ تحقیق وجود تبعات اقتصادی- سیاسی خشک‌شدن رودخانة زاینده‌رود را بر جامعة کشاورزان شرق اصفهان تأیید نمودند. و نتایج آزمون فرید‌من نشان داد که از بین شش عاملِ در نظرگرفته شده، عاملِ قیمت املاک و مستغلات، در بالاترین رتبه(45/4) و عاملِ امنیت اقتصادی در پایین‌ترین رتبه (57/2) قرار دارد. در نهایت نتایج حاکی از آن است که ضریبِ إستاندارد و مقدار T محاسبه شدة تبعات اقتصادی و سیاسی خشکی رودخانة زاینده‌رود در عامل‌هایی همچون قیمت املاک و مستغلات(71/.)، امنیت‌اقتصادی(87/.) و سرمایه‌سیاسی(61/.)، کاهش چشم‌گیری در بین جامعة کشاورزان شرق اصفهان داشته، درعامل وابستگیِ کشاورزان به دولت (59/.)، افزایش و در عامل‌هایی همچون شیوة زیست‌مادی(73/.) و وضعیت‌اقتصادی(75/.) مردم نیز تغییرات واضح و آشکاری داشته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

خشکسالی؛ بحران‌آب؛ پیامد‌اقتصادی؛ سرمایه‌سیاسی؛ شرق‌اصفهان

عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing Drought of Zayanderood and its Economic- Political Consequences on the Farmers of Eastern Part of Isfahan

نویسندگان [English]

asghar mohamadi¹؛ mansour haghighatian²؛ hossein behzadfar³

¹Assistant professor of Sociology, Department of Sociology ,Dehaghan,Iran

²Assistant professor of Sociology, Department of Sociology Associate Professor of Sociology, Department of Sociology , Dehaghan,Iran.

³Ph.D student of sociology, Islamic Azad University of Dehaghan, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Drought and territorial effects have changed the aridity to a major crisis on the resistance of economic life of many villages in dry and semi dry areas. Now drying the Zayanderood river is one of the most challenges of Isfahan province that in addition to the social tensions has also caused the appearance of many political and socal effects.Its effects on rural areas especially in eastern part of Isfahan has been more than the other areas. So the present practical research was done with the purpose of analyzing drought of Zayanderood and its Economic-Political consequences on the farmers of eastern part of Isfahan through a survey. Statistical population of research was the farmers of east of Isfahan who were the householders (N=41000) that according to Cochran formula and by randomly cluser sampling 380 of them were randomly selected as the sample. Questionnaire wasmade by the researcher and data analysis was done through Confirmatory factor analysis method and use of Amos and Lisrel software. Findings of the study confirmed the existence of economic and political consequences of drought of Zayanderood river on the farmers population of east of Isfahan. The results of Friedman showed that among the six considered factors the factor of the real estate and land,s price is on the highedt rank (4.45) while the economic security is on the lowest rank (2.57). Finally, the results show that the standard coefficient and the amount of calculated T of the economic and political consequences of drought of Zayanderood have had remarkable decrease among the farmers of east of Isfahan in factors like the price of land and real estate (0.71), economic security (0.87) and political stock (0.61). In the factor of dependency of the farmers to the government there was an increase(0.59) and also there was clear changes in factors like the method of river life (0.73) and people,s economic condition (0.75).

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Drought, Water crisis, economic consequence, Political stock, East of Isfahan

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