سنجش و ارزیابی تاب‌آوری محیط شهری در برابر خطر زمین‌لرزه با استفاده از تلفیق مدل‌های ANP و OWA (مطالعه موردی: شهر گرمی)

فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

مقاله 14، دوره 12، شماره 46، مرداد 1401، صفحه 210-226   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jzpm.2022.5381

نویسندگان

عقیل مددی^{* 1}؛ الناز پیروزی²؛ زهرا امینی³

¹استاد ژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران

²دکتری ژئومورفولوژی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران

³کارشناسی ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران

تاریخ دریافت: 03 خرداد 1399،  تاریخ بازنگری: 29 شهریور 1399،  تاریخ پذیرش: 04 مهر 1399 

چکیده

در حال حاضر به‌دنبال رشد شهرنشینی و افزایش سوانح طبیعی، بررسی و سنجش تاب‌آوری سیستم‌های انسانی و طبیعی در دستیابی به توسعه پایدار از اهمیت ویژه‌ای برخوردار است. بر این اساس، پژوهش حاضر به دنبال سنجش و ارزیابی تاب‌آوری محیط شهری گرمی در برابر خطر زمین‌لرزه می‌باشد. در این پژوهش، با در نظر گرفتن ساختار‌های طبیعی، کالبدی و دسترسی دخیل در برابر زلزله در قالب 15 شاخص، به ارزیابی تاب‌آوری شهر گرمی در مقابل زلزله پرداخته شده است. سپس لایه‌های اطلاعاتی توسط سامانه اطلاعات جغرافیایی تهیه گردید و در مرحله بعد وزن‌دهی عوامل مورد بررسی با استفاده از فرآیند تحلیل شبکه (ANP) و در محیط نرم افزار Super Decisionانجام شد و مدل‌سازی نهایی، با استفاده از روش میانگین-گیری وزن‏دار ترتیبی (OWA) انجام گردید. نتایج پژوهش نشان‌دهنده آن است که 70/11 از منطقه مورد مطالعه دارای تاب-آوری کاملا مناسب و 17/24 درصد از منطقه از تاب‌آوری کاملا نا‌مناسبی برخوردار است. تاب‌آوری نا‌مناسب، تاب‌آوری متوسط و تاب‌آوری مناسب به ترتیب با 25 درصد، 84/25 درصد و 29/13 درصد سایر پهنه‌ها را شامل می‌شود. به‌طور کلی می‌توان گفت که بخش‌های جنوبی، جنوب‌غربی و بخش‌هایی از شمال‌شرقی شهر گرمی از نظر تاب‌آوری در برابر زلزله در وضعیت نسبتا نا‌مناسبی قرار داشته و در مقابل واحد‌های ساختمانی واقع در بخش‌های شمال و شمال‌غرب این شهر در شرایط مساعد‌تری قرار دارد. با توجه به نقشه نهایی، شهر گرمی از نظر تاب‌آوری در برابر زلزله در موقعیت مطلوبی قرار ندارد و به نوعی از وضعیت متوسط رو به پایین برخوردار است. شهر گرمی از نظر تاب‌آوری در برابر زلزله در موقعیت مطلوبی قرار ندارد و به نوعی از وضعیت متوسط رو به پایین برخوردار است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

مخاطرات؛ کالبدی؛ دسترسی؛ وزن دهی؛ MCDM

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment and Evaluation of Urban Resilience against Earthquake Risk Using Integration of ANP and OWA Model (Case Study: Germi City)

نویسندگان [English]

Aghil Madadi¹؛ Elnaz pirrozi²؛ Zahra Amini³

¹professor of Geomorghology, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran

²Ph.D. of Geomorghology, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran

³MS.c of Geography and Urban Planning, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran

چکیده [English]

At present, following the growth of urbanization and the increase in natural disasters, the study and measurement of the resilience of human and natural systems in achieving sustainable development is of particular importance. Accordingly, the present study seeks to measure and evaluate the resilience of Germi city environment against earthquake risk. In this study, by taking into account the natural, physical and accessible structures involved in reducing the effects of an earthquake in the form of 15 indicators, resilience of Germi city against earthquake is discussed. Then, the information layers were prepared by the geographic information system and in the next step, the weighting of the studied factors was done using the network analysis process (ANP) in Super Decision software environment and the final modeling was done using the ordinal weighted average (OWA) method. The results indicate that 11/70 % of the study area has a quite good resilience and 24.17% of the area has quite inappropriate. Moderate and relatively appropriate resilience percentages are 25 %, 25.84 %, and 13.29 %, respectively. In general, it can be said that the southern, southwestern parts and northeastern city of Germi have relatively inappropriate conditions regarding resilience, whereas construction in the northern and northwestern parts of the city are in better condition. According to the final map, the city of Germi is not in a good position in terms of earthquakes resistance, and it has a kind of medium to low status. According to the final map, the city of Germi is not in a good position in terms of earthquakes resistance, and it has a kind of medium to low status.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Risks, Physical, Access, Weighting, MCDM

مراجع

Afrooz, B. (2011). Presenting a suitable model in the level of performance management of urban management in the context of entrepreneurship development (Ardabil urban case study), Master's thesis, Geography and Urban and Rural Planning, Supervisor: Ata Ghaffari Gilandeh, Mohaghegh Ardabili University.

Ahmadi, A., Fathi, S., & Akbbari, Ebrahim (2018). Assessment of Urban Resilience against Natural Hazards with an Emphasis on Earthquake and Using Fuzzy Logic and GIS (A Case Study of Urmia City), Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards. 7 (22), pp. 57 – 73.

Aquajani, H., Rahnama, M Rahim., & Fattahi, M. (2012). Integrating multi-criteria evaluation techniques with geographic information Systems for landfill site selection: A case study using ordered weighted average in Mashhad, Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards. 1 (3), pp. 87-105.

Ara Parvin, G., Surjan, A., Rahman, A. & shaw, R. (2016). Urban Risk, City Government, and Resilience. Urban disasters and resilience in Asia, pp. 21- 34.

Ashour, H. (2011). Investigation and analysis of proportionality and attractions of Amol industrial town in the location of industrial units (small and medium industries), M.Sc. Thesis, Geography and Urban Planning, Supervisor: Ata Ghaffari Gilandeh, Mohaghegh Ardabili University.

Dori, B., & Hamzeh, E. (2010). Determination of Risk Response Strategy in Risk Management by Technique (ANP); Case study: North Azadegan, North Oilfield Development Project. 2 (4), PP. 92-75.

Fallahi, AR., & Jalali, T. (2013). Resilient Reconstruction from the Urban Design Point of View, After 2003 Bam Earthquake, MEHARI-VA-SHAHRSAZI (HONAR-HA-YE-ZIBA). 18 (3), pp. 5-16.

Faraji Sabkbar, H.A., Salmani, M., Fereydoni, F., Karimzadeh, H., & Rahimi, H. (2010). Using analytic network process approach case study: The villages of Quchan country, Spatlal planning (Nodares human sciences). 14 (1), pp. 127 -149.

Gunderson, L.H. (2010). Ecological and human community Resilience in Response to Natural Disasters. Ecology and Society, 15 (2), pp. 1-11.

Jafarizadeh, R., & Alizadeh, SH. (2019). Evaluation of Institutional Resilience of Urban Societies against Natural Hazards Case Study: Earthquake in Ardabil", 2nd International Conference on Civil Engineering, Architecture and Urban Development Management in Iran. Maragheh University of Technology, pp. 1-13.

Klien, R.G.N., and F. Thomalla, (2003). Resilience to natural hazard: Hom useful is this concept. Environmental hazards, 5 (1-2), pp. 35-45.

Malchefeski, Y. (2006). Geographic Information System and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Translated by Parhizgar, A., Ghaffari Gilandeh. A. First Edition, Samat Publications.

Malekan, A., khani, F., motiee langroodi, H., and Darban Astaneh, A. (2020). The Impact of Social Capital on Improving Drought Resilience (Case Study: Kangaveh County Villages), journal of Regional Planning. 10 (38), pp. 65-80.

Maleki, M., & Sheikh al-Islami, A. (2018). Survey of urban areas and the level of resilience against earthquakes and providing solutions in the field of urban uses (case study: Al-Shatr city), Conference on Civil Engineering, Architecture and Urban Planning of the Islamic World. Shahid Madani University of Azerbaijan, pp. 1-11.

Mavedat, E., garmsiri, P., & momeni, K. (2020). Estimated distribution of urban resilience from the perspective of the earthquake crisis using the Spatial Stats Model (Case Study of Ilam), journal of Regional Planning. 9 (36), pp. 119-134.

Mirabadi, M., Hashemi, H., & Amini, J. (2018). Applying AHP model and Ordered Weighted Average method in Locating Waste Disposal Site of bookan city by using Arc GIS and IDRISI, Geographic Space. 60 (17), pp. 39 – 54.

Moarab, Y., Salehi, E., Amiri, M.J., and Balist, J. (2019). Construction of a conceptual model for against disasters using a sustainable development approach, Journal of Environmental Sciences and Technology. 21 (3), pp. 139- 156.

Mohammadi Sarin Dizaj , M., & Ahadnejad Roshti, M. (2016). The evaluation of the urban fabric resiliency against earthquake risk Case Study: Zanjan, Journal of Spatial Analysis Environmental Hazarts. 3 (1), pp. 103-118.

Najafi, A. (2010). Structure and Environmental Challenges Analysis in Projects Management Using Analytical International, Journal of Industrial Engineering & Production Management. 21 (1), pp. 63-76.

Pashapour, H.A., & Pourakrami, M. (2018). Measuring Physical Dimensions of Urban Resilience in The Face of the Natural Disasters (Earthquake) (Case Study: Tehran's 12th District), Journal of Studies of Human Settlements Planning. 41 (12), pp. 985 – 1002.

Poorahmad, A., Lotfi, S., Faraji, A., & Azimi, A. (2009). Investigation of Dimensions of Earthquake Crisis Prevention (Case Study of Babol City), Journal of Urban and Regional Studies and Research. 1 (1), pp. 1-24.

Pour Mohammadi, M.R., & Mosayyeb Zadeh, A. (2000). The Vulnerability of Iranian Cities Against Earthquake and the Role of Neighborhood Participation in Providing Assistance for Them, Geography and Development Iranian Journal. 12 (6), pp. 117-144.

Rezaei, M. (2010). Explaining the resilience of urban communities in order to reduce the effects of natural disasters (earthquakes), (Case study of Tehran metropolis), PhD thesis in Geography and Urban Planning, Supervisor: Ali Asgari, Tarbiat Modares University.

Rezaei, M.R., Rafieian, M., & Hosseini, M. (2016). assessment of urban Physical resilience against earthquakes Case Study: quarters of Tehran, Human Geography Research Quarterly. 47 (4), pp. 609 – 623.

Ribeiro P.J.G., Pena L.A., & \ Conclaves, J. (2019). Urban resilience: A conceptual framework. Sustainable cities and society, 50, pp. 1-20.

Rose, A.Z. (2009). Economic Resilience to disasters. CREATE Research Archive, Final Report to Community and Regional Resilience Institute, pp. 1-40.

 Sadra, S., & Islami, P. (2017). Strategies to increase resilience in the infrastructure of urban worn-out structures Case study of Saghar Sazan neighborhood in Rasht, 4th Conference on Architecture and Urbanism, Sustainability and Resilience from Time to Reality, Islamic Azad University, Qazvin Branch. 4, pp. 1-10.

Salman Mahini, A., Riazi, B., Naimi, B., Babaei Kafakai, S., & Javadi Larijani, A. (2008). Ecotourism capability assessment of the Behshahr area using mult-criteria evaluation by using GIS, Journal of environmental science and technology. 11 (1), pp.178-189.

Sen, Z. (2010). Rapid visual earthquake hazard evaluation of existing buildings by fuzzy logic modeling. Expert systems with application, 31(8), pp. 5653- 5660.

Shakoor, A., Karimi Ghotbabadi, F., & Malekii, M. (2017). Vulnerability risk analysis of rural settlements against earthquakes (Case study: the villages of Lamerd County), journal of Regional Planning. 7 (26), pp. 81-92.

Shukri Firoozjah, P. (2018). Assess the resilience of cities against natural hazards, Case Study: Babol, Journal of Studies of Human Settlements Planning. 44 (13), pp. 663 – 678.

Soofi, S.Y. (2016). Achieving Urban Resilience: Through Urban Design and Planning Principles.  Master’s thesis, Oxford Brookes University. Oxford. UK, pp. 1-93.

Wang, z., & Pickl S., (2017). Analysis of the definithons of resilience, IFAC- Papers online, 5 (1), pp. 10649- 10657.

Yarahmadi, M., Nikpour, A., & Lotfi, S. (2019). Evaluating the physical resilience of cities against earthquakes: A case study of Noorabad Mamassani, Geographical Research on Desert Areas. 7 (2), pp. 147-171.

Yarveisy, R., Gao, Ch., & F. Khn, (2020). A simple yet robust resilience assessment metrics. peliability Engineering & sytem safety, 197, pp. 106810- 106827.

Zarghami, S., Teymouri, A., Mohammadian, M Hassan., & Shamaei, A (2017). Assessing and evaluating the resilience of urban neighborhoods against earthquakes (central part of Zanjan city), Journal of Urban Research and Planning. 8 (27), pp. 77-92.

Zhang, X., & H. Li, (2018), Urban Resilience and Urban sustainability: What we know and what do not know? Cities, 72, pp.141- 148.