آینده‌نگری توسعه منطقه ای و تحقق‌پذیری طرح‌های آمایش سرزمینی کشور (مطالعه موردی: استان خراسان رضوی)

فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

مقاله 4، دوره 12، شماره 47، آبان 1401، صفحه 55-76   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jzpm.2021.25606.3704

نویسندگان

مهدی جوانشیری^{* 1}؛ سیروس نبیونی²؛ مسلم نامدارزاده³

¹دانش‌‌آموخته دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌‌ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران.

²دانش‌‌آموخته دکتری اقلیم‌شناسی واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.

³دانشجو دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت: 12 مرداد 1399،  تاریخ بازنگری: 19 دی 1399،  تاریخ پذیرش: 01 بهمن 1399 

چکیده

تلاش برای داشتن یک برنامه ملی آمایش سرزمین در طول 45 سال گذشته همواره با موانع و چالش‌های متعددی مواجه شده است، اما آینده‌پژوهی در برنامه‌ریزی آمایش سرزمین با تأکید بر عوامل کلیدی، پیشران‌ها و فقدان قطعیت‌های توسعۀ مناطق، اجازه می دهد با تمرکز بر پیشران‌های کلیدی به حل مسائل مبهم فایق آمد؛ و به نگاشت و مدیریت آیندۀ مطلوب پرداخت. در پژوهش حاضر تلاش شده است تا با مشارکت مدیران استانی و خبرگان دانشگاهی، مهمترین عوامل تأثیرگذار بر تحقق‌پذیری آمایش استان خراسان رضوی شناسایی و درنهایت سناریوهای موثر بر تحقق‌پذیری آمایش استان تدوین شود. فرایند حاکم بر این پژوهش از نظر هدف، کاربردی و نوع روش پژوهش توصیفی- تحلیلی است. ماهیت داده ها کیفی بوده و روش گردآوری داده ها و اطلاعات به صورت کتابخانه ای، اسنادی و پیمایشی (مصاحبه) است. با بررسی منابع علمی، 107 عامل موثر بر تحقق‌پذیری طرح های امایش سرزمین شناسایی شد که در 10 بُعد دسته بندی شدند؛ که از دو گروه و در مجموع 29 نفر، شامل مدیران سازمانهای مرتبط با فرآیند آمایش سرزمین در استان و متخصصان دانشگاهی طی پرسشنامه حضوری و انلاین درخواست شد مقایسۀ زوجی میان عوامل تأثیرگذار صورت پذیرد. تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها مبتنی بر تکنیک های آینده‌پژوهی ازجمله پویش محیطی، تحلیل ساختاری و تحلیل تأثیر متقابل است. نتایج نشان داد تعداد خیلی زیاد سناریوی ممکن پیش روی برنامه‌ریزی آمایش سرزمین در استان خراسان رضوی وجود دارد که تعداد 598 سناریو با سازگاری ضعیف و تنها 2 سناریو در حالت سازگاری قوی و پایدار (ناسازگاری صفر) قرار دارد (33/3 درصد سناریوهای ممکن، باورپذیر هستند). سناریوی اول که یک سناریو با جهت مثبت است، دارای مجموع امتیاز اثر متقابل 228 و ارزش سازگاری 6 است، درحالی‌که سناریوی دوم که گویای شرایط نامطلوب برای آینده برنامه‌ریزی آمایش سرزمین در استان خراسان رضوی است، دارای مجموع امتیاز اثر متقابل 163 و ارزش سازگاری 9 می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

آمایش سرزمین؛ تحقق‌پذیری؛ آینده نگاری؛ سناریوویزارد؛ خراسان رضوی

عنوان مقاله [English]

Futurism of regional development and Realizability of Land use planning Country (Case study: Khorasan Razavi province)

نویسندگان [English]

Mahdi Javanshiri¹؛ Sirus Nabiuni²؛ Muslim Namdarzadeh³

¹PhD in Geography and Rural Planning, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran.

²PhD in Climatology, Islamic Azad University, Science and Research Branch, Iran.

³PhD student in Political Geography, Kharazmi University, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Attempting to have a national land use planning program has always faced many obstacles and challenges over the past 45 years. But futures research in land use planning with emphasis on key factors, drivers, and lack of regional development certainties, allows focusing on key drivers to overcome ambiguous problems. And mapped and managed the desired future. In the present study, with the participation of provincial administrators and university experts, the most important factors affecting the feasibility of planning in Khorasan Razavi province have been identified and finally scenarios affecting the feasibility of planning in the province have been developed. The research is descriptive-analytical in terms of purpose, application and type of research method. The method of data collection and information is library, documentary and survey (interview). By examining scientific sources, 107 factors affecting the feasibility of land use planning projects were identified, which were classified into 10 dimensions; Interviews were conducted with two groups and a total of 29 people, including managers of related organizations and academic experts. Data analysis is based on futures research techniques such as environmental scanning, structural analysis and interaction analysis (Micmac and Scenario wizard software). The results showed that 598 scenarios with poor compatibility and only 2 scenarios are in the state of strong and stable compatibility (zero incompatibility) (33.3% of possible scenarios are plausible). The first scenario, which is a positive-oriented scenario, has a total interaction score of 228 and a compatibility value of 6, while the second scenario, which indicates unfavorable conditions for the future of land management planning in Khorasan Razavi province, has a total interaction score of 163 and a compatibility value of 9. is. The third scenario also has a compatibility value of -1 and with a total score of 58 interaction can be one of the possible scenarios for the future of land management planning in Khorasan Razavi province.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Land use planning, possibility, Futurism, Scenario Wizard, Khorasan Razavi

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