ارزیابی و اولویت‌بندی ریسک‌های موجود در پروژه‌های زیرساختی منطقه ای مبتنی بر روش مشارکت عمومی- خصوصی (PPP) با استفاده از ترکیب تکنیک های تصمیم گیری چند معیاره فازی (مطالعه موردی: آزادراه)

فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

دوره 13، شماره 50، مرداد 1402، صفحه 177-196   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jzpm.2021.26822.3807

نویسندگان

ابراهیم جوکار^{* 1}؛ بابک امین نژاد²؛ علیرضا لرک³

¹استادیار، گروه عمران، واحد داریون، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، داریون، ایران.

²استادیار، گروه عمران، واحد رودهن، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، رودهن، ایران.

³استادیار، گروه عمران، واحد صفادشت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، صفادشت، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت: 24 آذر 1399،  تاریخ بازنگری: 02 شهریور 1400،  تاریخ پذیرش: 03 شهریور 1400 

چکیده

از مهمترین شاخص های توسعه اقتصادی در یک کشور برنامه ریزی منطقه ای جهت ساخت پروژه های زیربنایی می باشد. قراردادهای مشارکت عمومی- خصوصی (PPP)، راهکاری مناسب برای غلبه بر محدودیت ها در اختیار دولت ها قرار می دهد، اما به دلیل پیچیدگی ها، مدت زمان طولانی و عدم قطعیت های بالا، این روش قراردادی ریسک های زیادی را به همراه دارد. از اینرو هدف اصلی تحقیق شناسایی، ارزیابی و اولویت بندی مهمترین ریسک های موجود در پروژه های PPP با مطالعه موردی در پروژه های آزادراهی ایران می باشد. در مقاله حاضر، با مطالعه عمیق ادبیات تحقیق و بکارگیری روش دلفی، مهمترین ریسک های پروژه های مشارکت عمومی – خصوصی، شناسایی شدند سپس آنالیز کیفی جهت تعیین ریسک های با اهمیت انجام و مدل ارزیابی ریسک با استفاده از ترکیب تکنیک های تصمیم گیری چندمعیاره فازی توسعه داده شده است. نتایج تجزیه و تحلیل کمی ریسک با استفاده از روش FAHP نشان داد که ریسک های سطح اول در هفت رده مختلف از جمله ریسک اقتصادی و تأمین مالی، ساخت، عملیاتی، قانونی، سیاسی، سایر ریسک ها و ریسک های دولتی به ترتیب بیشترین تأثیر را در این نوع پروژه ها به خودشان اختصاص داده اند. همچنین، نتایج رتبه بندی زیرمعیارها نشان داد که هزینه های تأمین مالی بالا، کیفیت عملکرد و استانداردها، عدم زیرساخت های پشتیبانی بیشترین تأثیر را در این پروژه ها دارند. سرانجام، نتایج شاخص شباهت FTOPSIS نشان داد که طبق نظر کارشناسان پروژه، پروژه های A (آزادراه اصفهان - شیراز)، B (آزادراه سلفچگان - اراک) و C (آزادراه خرم آباد - اراک) به ترتیب تاثیرپذیری بیشتری را از ریسک‌ها داشته‌اند. نتایج این تحقیق به تقویت قابلیت های کشورهای در حال توسعه برای مدیریت ریسک در پروژه های مشارکت عمومی- خصوصی آزادراهی کمک می کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

ریسک های پروژه های زیرساختی؛ مشارکت عمومی خصوصی؛ تکنیک های تصمیم گیری چندمعیاره فازی؛ الگوی مدیریت ریسک

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessing and Prioritizing Risks in regional infrastructure projects based on public-private partnership (PPP) method using a combination of fuzzy multi-criteria decision making techniques (Case study: Freeway)

نویسندگان [English]

ebrahim jokar¹؛ babak aminnejad²؛ alireza lork³

¹Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Dariun Branch, Islamic Azad University, Dariun, Iran

²Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Rodehen Branch, Islamic Azad University, Rodehen, Iran.

³Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Safadasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Safadasht, Iran.

چکیده [English]

One of the most important indicators of economic development in a country is regional planning for the construction of infrastructure projects. Public-private partnership (PPP) contracts provide a viable solution for governments to overcome constraints, but due to the complexity, length of time, and high uncertainties of this contractual approach, it carries many risks. Therefore, the main purpose of research is to identify and evaluate the most important risks in PPP projects with a case study in Iranian freeway projects. In the present article, by in-depth study of the research literature and application of the Delphi method, the most important risks of public-private partnership projects were identified then qualitative analysis is performed to determine the significant risks and the risk assessment model is developed using a combination of fuzzy multi-criteria decision making techniques. The results of quantitative risk analysis using FAHP method showed that the first level risks in seven different categories including economic risk and financing, construction, operational, legal, political, other risks and government risks, respectively, have the greatest impact on this type of projects. The results of quantitative risk analysis using FAHP method showed that the first level risks in seven different categories including economic risk and financing, construction, operational, legal, political, other risks and government risks, respectively, have the greatest impact on this type of projects. Also, the results of sub-criteria ranking showed that high financing costs, quality of performance and standards, lack of support infrastructure have the greatest impact on these projects. Finally, the results of FTOPSIS showed that projects A, B and C were more affected by risks, respectively. The findings help with strengthening the capabilities of developing countries for risk management in freeway PPP projects.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Infrastructure Project Risks, Public-Private Partnership (PPP), Integrated Fuzzy Multi-Criteria Decision Making Techniques, Risk Management Pattern

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