تدوین سناریوهای تحقق‌پذیری مدیریت تداوم کسب و کارهای خود اشتغالی زنان سرپرست خانوار با رویکرد آینده پژوهی در شهرستان چرداول- استان ایلام

فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

مقاله 13، دوره 12، شماره 47، آبان 1401، صفحه 213-222   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jzpm.2022.5420

نویسندگان

حسین مهدی زاد^{* 1}؛ معصومه جمشیدی²؛ علیرضا جمشیدی³

¹استادیار گروه کارآفرینی و توسعه روستایی، دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام، ایران.

²استادیار مدعو گروه کارآفرینی و توسعه روستایی، دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام، ایران.

³استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت: 30 آذر 1399،  تاریخ بازنگری: 12 فروردین 1400،  تاریخ پذیرش: 16 فروردین 1400 

چکیده

آینده پژوهی در برنامه‌ریزی مدیریت تداوم کسب و کارهای خود اشتغالی زنان سرپرست خانوار سبب یافتن پیشران‌ها، متغیرهای کلیدی و عدم قطعیت‌های توسعه توانمندسازی اقتصادی زنان شده و مدیریت آینده مطلوب را رقم خواهد زد. هدف این پژوهش، شناسایی شاخص‌های اثرگذار بر تحقق مدیریت تداوم کسب و کارهای خود اشتغالی زنان سرپرست خانوار شهرستان چرداول، شناخت متغیرهای کلیدی و تدوین سناریوهای مؤثر بر تحقق‌پذیری آن بوده است. روش پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی و از نوع تحقیقات توصیفی-تحلیلی است که با رویکرد ساختاری تفسیری به منظور سنجش اثرات متقابل متغیرها، انجام شده است. این پژوهش از نظر ماهیت داده‌ها، ترکیبی است و بر اساس شیوه گردآوری داده‌ها اسنادی و پیمایشی می‌باشد. نتایج نشان داد که از بین سناریوهای تدوین شده 6 سناریو با سازگاری قوی، پیش روی آینده مدیریت تداوم کسب و کارهای خود اشتغالی زنان سرپرست خانوار تحت پوشش نهادای حمایتی کمیته امداد و اداره بهزیستی در شهرستان چرداول وجود دارد. از 6 سناریوی گفته شده، سه سناریوی یک، دو و سه دارای وضعیت کاملاً مطلوب هستند و سناریو یک بهترین و محتمل‌ترین سناریوی پیش‌روی مدیریت تداوم کسب و کار خود اشتغالی زنان سرپرست خانوار تحت پوشش در شهرستان چرداول است.
نتایج نشان داد که از بین سناریوهای تدوین شده 6 سناریو با سازگاری قوی، پیش روی آینده مدیریت تداوم کسب و کارهای خود اشتغالی زنان سرپرست خانوار تحت پوشش نهادای حمایتی کمیته امداد و اداره بهزیستی در شهرستان چرداول وجود دارد. از 6 سناریوی گفته شده، سه سناریوی یک، دو و سه دارای وضعیت کاملاً مطلوب هستند و سناریو یک بهترین و محتمل‌ترین سناریوی پیش‌روی مدیریت تداوم کسب و کار خود اشتغالی زنان سرپرست خانوار تحت پوشش در شهرستان چرداول است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

"مدیریت تداوم کسب و کارهای خود اشتغالی"؛ "آینده پژوهی"؛ "سناریو‌نگاری"؛ "شهرستان چرداول"؛ "زنان سرپرست خانوار "

عنوان مقاله [English]

Developing feasibility of women head of households self-employed Business Continuity management scenarios by future study in Chardavol Township- ilam

نویسندگان [English]

Hossien mahdizade¹؛ Masomeh Jamshidi²؛ Alireza Jamshidi³

¹Assistant Professor of Entrepreneurship and Rural Development, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran.

²Visiting professor of Rural Planning Entrepreneurship and Rural Development Department, Ilam University, Ilam, Iran.

³Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Futures Studies in Planning the Self-Employed Businesses Continuity for Women-Headed Households will find the key drivers, key variables, and uncertainties in the development of women's economic empowerment, and will shape the desired future management. The purpose of this study was to identify the factors affecting the management of women's self-employed business continuity management in Chardavol Township, identifying key variables and developing effective scenarios for its realization. The purpose of this study is practical and it is a descriptive-analytical research conducted with an interpretive structural approach to measure the interactions of variables. In terms of the nature of the data, this research is a combination (quantitative and qualitative) and is based on documentary and survey data collection method. The results showed that out of the developed scenarios, there are 6 scenarios with strong adaptation to the future of self-employed women business continuity management in Chardavol. Of the six scenarios mentioned, three scenarios one, two, and three are perfectly desirable, and scenario 1 is the best-case scenario of managing self-employed business continuity of women-headed households in Chardavol.
The results showed that out of the developed scenarios, there are 6 scenarios with strong adaptation to the future of self-employed women business continuity management in Chardavol. Of the six scenarios mentioned, three scenarios one, two, and three are perfectly desirable, and scenario 1 is the best-case scenario of managing self-employed business continuity of women-headed households in Chardavol.
The results showed that out of the developed scenarios, there are 6 scenarios with strong adaptation to the future of self-employed women business continuity management in Chardavol. Of the six scenarios mentioned, three scenarios one, two, and three are perfectly desirable, and scenario 1 is the best-case scenario of managing self-employed business continuity of women-headed households in Chardavol.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

"Self-employed Business Continuity", "Future Study", "Scenario Making", "Chardavol Township", "women head of households"

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