بررسی رابطه بین جاذبه سکونتگاه‌ها و میزان مهاجر پذیری با تلفیق مدل جاذبه و رگرسیون- مطالعه موردی: شهرستان های استان اصفهان(95-1390)

فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

دوره 13، شماره 50، مرداد 1402، صفحه 79-92   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jzpm.2021.27588.3865

نویسنده

سجاد ربیعی جرم افشاری^*

کارشناس ارشد برنامه ریزی منطقه ای، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت: 22 اسفند 1399،  تاریخ بازنگری: 08 آبان 1400،  تاریخ پذیرش: 09 آبان 1400 

چکیده

انسان به دلایل مختلف و به منظور ارتقای معیشت و بهبود زندگی دست به مهاجرت می زند. هر چند اندیشمندان در مورد علل مهاجرت اختلاف نظر دارند، اما به طور کلی می توان دلایل مهاجرت را در دو گروه اقتصادی و غیر اقتصادی تقسیم نمود. به عبارت دیگر می توان گفت که جاذبه های اقتصادی و غیر اقتصادی باعث مهاجرت می گردند. اگرچه در محافل آکادمیک، مهاجرت بین‌المللی توجه بیشتری را به خود جلب کرده است،اما باید این موضوع را در نظر گرفت که حجم مهاجرت‌های داخلی بسیار بیشتر از مهاجرت خارجی است. در ایران نیز پس از اصلاحات ارضی در دهه 1340 شمسی و گرایش برنامه‌ریزی مرکزی به صنعتی شدن کشور، با متزلزل شدن نظام تولیدی روستا و رونق اقتصاد نفتی در شهر، مهاجرت روستائیان به شهر آغاز شد و تا کنون غالب تحقیقات صورت گرفته بر مهاجرت روستا به شهر و مشکلات ایجاد شده در این فرایند متمرکز شده است و مهاجرت های بین شهری و بین شهرستانی را مورد مطالعه قرار نداده اند؛ لذا هدف از مطالعه حاضر بررسی رابطه بین جاذبه شهرستان‌ها و میزان مهاجر پذیری آنها در استان اصفهان بین سال های 95-1390 است. بدین منظور جاذبه اقتصادی و غیر اقتصادی شهرستان ها در سال های مذکور با استفاده از مدل جاذبه محاسبه گردید. سپس یک رابطه رگرسیونی بین لگاریتم میزان مهاجرت شهرستان ها به عنوان متغیر وابسته و میزان جاذبه اقتصادی و غیر اقتصادی شهرستان ها به عنوان متغیرهای مستقل ایجاد نمودیم. مدل در سطح خطای 5 درصد معنادار و ضریب تعیین مدل رگرسیونی 70/0 بوده که نشان از برازش مناسب مدل دارد. نتایج نشان می دهد که در استان اصفهان در سال های مذکور مهمترین دلیل مهاجرت های داخلی، انگیزه های غیر اقتصادی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

"جاذبه سکونتگاهی"؛ "مدل جاذبه"؛ "مهاجرپذیری"؛ "رگرسیون"؛ "استان اصفهان"

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the relationship between attraction of settlements and migration rate by combining Gravity and Regression Model - Case study: Cities of Isfahan Province (2011-2016)

نویسندگان [English]

Sajjad Rabiee Jarmafshari

Master of Regional Planning, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran.

چکیده [English]

People migrates for various reasons in order to improve Living conditions.Although scholars disagree about the causes of migration, but in general, the reasons for migration can be divided into two groups: economic and non-economic. In other words, it can be said that economic and non-economic attractions cause migration. Although international migration has attracted more attention in academia, it must be kept in mind that the volume of domestic migration is much larger than that of foreign migration. In Iran, after the land reform and the tendency of central planning to industrialize the country, with the shaking of the rural production system and the prosperity of the oil economy in the city, the migration of rural to the city began and so far most research are concentrated on rural migration to city and the problems created in this process and intercity migration have not been studied; Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the attractiveness of cities and the rate of their immigration in Isfahan province between 2011-2016. For this purpose, the economic and non-economic attraction of the cities in the mentioned years was calculated using the gravity model. Then we created a regression relationship between the logarithm of the rate of migration of cities as a dependent variable and the amount of economic and non-economic attractiveness of cities as independent variables. The model was significant at error level of 5% and the coefficient of determination of model was 0.70, which indicates a good fit of the model. The results show that in Isfahan province in the mentioned years, the most important reason for internal migration is non-economic motivations.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

"Settlement Attractions", "Gravity model", "migration", "regression", "Isfahan province"

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