آینده‌پژوهی چالش‌های حکمروایی شهری در برابر تغییرات اقلیمی با تأکید بر بحران سیل (مطالعه موردی: کلانشهر اهواز)

فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

دوره 14، شماره 53، خرداد 1403، صفحه 61-80   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jzpm.2022.29126.3984

نویسندگان

مصطفی محمدی ده چشمه¹؛ نازنین حاجی پور^{* 2}

¹دانشیار جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

²دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز،اهواز، ایران

تاریخ دریافت: 15 مهر 1400،  تاریخ بازنگری: 29 اسفند 1400،  تاریخ پذیرش: 29 اسفند 1400 

چکیده

تغییرات اقلیمی، از یکسو و آسیب‌پذیری بالای شهر اهواز در مقابله و مدیریت بحران‌ سیل در سال‌های گذشته، ضرورت یک استراتژی آینده نگر در حکمروایی این شهر را اجتناب ناپذیر نموده است. پژوهش حاظر به لحاظ هدف کاربردی و از نظر روش شناخی توصیفی ـ تحلیلی است. در بخش نخست با مرور مبانی و استخراج مهمترین عوامل کلیدی حکمروایی سیل با استفاده از تکنیک دلفی و نظرخواهی از 30 کارشناس، شاخص‌های اجماع و قطعیت،‌ اولویت و اهمیت به ارزیابی عوامل پرداخته شد. در مجموع ۴3 پیشران کلیدی جهت ورود به نرم افزار Micmac تعیین شد. پس از تهیه ماتریس اولیه اثرات متقاطع در نرم افزار Micmac مشخص شده است که از بین ۱۸۰۶ ارزش محاسبه شده ۷۰۱ مورد از فاکتورهای علی دارای اثر بالایی بر استقرار الگوی حکمروایی در برابر مدیریت تغییرات اقلیمی با تأکید بر سیلاب شده است. همچنین 848 مورد دارای تاثیرگذاری متوسط و 257 مورد دارای تاثیرگذاری کم و 43 مورد بی‌تاتیر ارزیابی شده‌اند. ارزیابی وضعیت اثرگذاری و اثرپذیری عوامل کلیدی نشان می‌دهد که از بین ۸ عامل اصلی، مشارکت، پاسخگویی، عدالت و قانونمندی اثرگذارترین ابعاد بر روند تحولات کلانشهر اهواز بوده‌اند. همچنین از 10 پیشران کلیدی و مهم متغیرهای نقش موثر اعمال تصمیمات شهروندان در تهیه طرح‏های توسعه شهری و پاسخگویی مدیران و مسئولان شهری به شهروندان در مواقع بروز بحران به عنوان متغیرهای دو وجهی و تاثیرگذار دارای بیشترین اهمیت بوده‌اند. وضعیت‌های مختلف عوامل سیاسی و نهادی، اقتصادی، زیست محیطی و اکولوژیک و سایر مؤلفه‌های اثرگذار بر روند تحولات حکمروایی احتمال وقوع 8 سناریو را در ارتباط با عوامل کلیدی و احتمالی پیش رو (مطلوب، ‌میانه و فاجعه)، را بیش از سایر سناریوها دانسته و احتمال وقوع سایر سناریوها را در حد بسیار ناچیز و ضعیف ارزیابی کرده است. از 44 پیشران کلیدی،‌24 پیشران در محدوده ریسک و شرط و تأثیرپذیر یا وابسته قرار دارند. براساس تحلیل داده‌ها، 8 سناریو قوی یا محتمل، 14 سناریو با سازگاری بالا یا باورکردنی و 4319 سناریو ضعیف ارزیابی شدند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

حکمروایی شهری؛ تغییرات اقلیمی؛ مدیریت بحران؛ سیل؛ کلانشهر اهواز

عنوان مقاله [English]

Future Studies of the Urban Governance Challenges in the Face of Climate Change with Emphasis on the Flood Crisis (The Case study: Ahvaz Metropolis)

نویسندگان [English]

mostafa mohammadidehcheshme¹؛ Nazanin Hajipour²

¹Associate Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, shahid chamran university of ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran.

²PhD Student in Geoghraphy and Urban Planning, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz. Ahvaz. Iran.

چکیده [English]

Climate change, on the one hand, and the high vulnerability of the city of Ahvaz in dealing with and managing the flood crisis in recent years, has made the necessity of a forward-looking strategy in governing this city inevitable. The present research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of acquaintance method. In the first part, by reviewing the basics and extracting the most important key factors of flood governance, using the Delphi technique and consulting 30 experts, the indicators of consensus and certainty, priority and importance were evaluated. A total of 43 key drivers were identified to enter the Micmac software. After preparing the initial matrix of cross-effects in Micmac software, it has been determined that out of 1806 calculated values, 701 of the causal factors have a high effect on establishing a governance model against climate change management with emphasis on floods. Also, 848 cases with moderate impact, 257 cases with low impact and 43 cases with higher impact have been evaluated. Assessing the status of impact and effectiveness of key factors shows that among the eight main factors, participation, accountability, justice and lawfulness have been the most influential dimensions on the development of the metropolis of Ahvaz. Also, among the 10 keys and important drivers of variables, the effective role of implementing citizens' decisions in preparing urban development plans and the response of city managers and officials to citizens in times of crisis have been the most important as two-dimensional and effective variables. Different situations of political and institutional, economic, environmental and ecological factors and other components affecting the process of governance developments increase the probability of 8 scenarios in relation to key and possible factors ahead (favorable, middle and catastrophic), more than other scenarios. Has known and evaluated the possibility of other scenarios to occur very little and weakly. Of the 44 key drivers, 24 are in the risk and condition range and are affected or dependent. Based on the data analysis, 8 scenarios were evaluated as strong or probable, 14 scenarios with high or reliable compatibility and 4319 scenarios as weak.
 
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Urban society, especially in its modern forms, is constantly and extensively exposed to a variety of hazards. The consequences of this security instability in today's cities have led to the emergence of the idea of the city as a generator of hazards and a dangerous city in the industrialized world. Therefore, reducing the damage and injuries related to crises and disasters requires management, because the occurrence of natural crises and lack of proper planning to deal with the damage and the resulting message, can lead to the loss of resources and achievements. Meanwhile, climate change, rainfall irregularities and uncertainty in predicting on the one hand and the high vulnerability of Ahvaz city in dealing with and managing flood crises in recent years, has made inevitable the need for a forward-looking strategy to address the challenges of climate change in this city.
 
Methodology
The research method is a combination of quantitative and qualitative methods based on futuristic research approach and exploratory analysis using Micmac software. In the first step, by reviewing the theoretical foundations and elaborating the most important indicators of governance, from the documentary method including survey technique and questionnaire tools and interviews with the Delphi community, the drivers of urban governance have extracted. The certainty and priority of the propellants have been used. Statistical sample size was done using available sampling method, 30 specialists by non-random sampling method or purposive sampling. Next, in the framework of the cross-effects matrix, the Delphi group was asked to assign a score range of 0 to 3 to each propulsion based on the process of influence and influence (pairwise comparison) of propellants on each other. Number 1 has little or no effect, number 2 with moderate impact, the numan ber 3 a high impact and the letter P means potential impact on the process of direct and indirect impact of each propulsion reciprocally. The method of analysis of interactions is expert-centered technique that reflects quantitative results.
Results and Discussion
The aim of this study is identify and rank the key variables and effective drivers of urban governance in the face of climate challenges and especially the flood crisis in the metropolis of Ahvaz. The analyze of the relationship between these variables is based on the futuristic approach. First, 30 specialists and executive officials who should be involved in the discussion were identified and selected, and then the most important drivers of regeneration affecting the regeneration were identified and scored by Delphi method and a questionnaire, and finally 43 sub-drivers in 8 factors. Key Partnership (P) Consensus (C), Accountability (R), Justice (J), Legitimacy (L), Transparency (T), Accountability (Re) and Efficiency and Efficiency (E) Cross-matrices were formed and in the next phase, the obtained weights were applied using Micmac software. The results of the study showed that among the 18 factors, 10 key and important drivers of governance in Ahvaz metropolis against climate change, which are the same two-dimensional and effective variables.  The most important of these indicators are:the Effective role of citizens in making decisions in urban development plans, accountability of city managers and officials to citizens, neutrality and equality before the law, use of experienced and specialized people in urban management, preference of collective interests over personal, the effectiveness of city managers' actions in the face of crisis, accountability of councils and description of urban development programs and plans, especially preventive, selection and meritocracy in the selection of urban managers, involvement with accountability of urban managers in the management of physical development of the city and city managers ask citizens to participate in Affairs before and after the crisis.
 
Conclusion
The results of the research indicate that out of 1806 calculated values, 701 of the causal factors have a high effect on the establishment of the governance model against climate change management with emphasis on floods. Also, 848 cases with moderate impact, 257 cases with low impact and 43 cases with higher impact have been evaluated. Assessing the effectiveness of the key factors shows that among the 8 main factors, participation, accountability, justice and lawfulness have been the most influential dimensions on the development process of Ahvaz metropolis. Also, out of 10 key and important drivers of variables, the effective role of implementing citizens' decisions in preparing urban development plans and the response of city managers and officials to citizens in times of crisis have been the most important as two-dimensional and effective variables.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Urban Governance, Climate change. Crisis Management, Flood, Ahvaz Metropolis

مراجع

1. Ahmadi, M., Azizi, G., Kardavani, P. (2019). Assessment of Climate Change Effects on Degree Days of Cooling and Heating Conditions in Selected Stations in Ilam Province. Physical Geography Research Quarterly, 51(2), 283-300. (in Persian). https://doi.org/10.22059/jphgr.2019.265888.1007277
2. Akbari, Gh. (2007). Social Capital and Urban Governance, Geographical Research Journal, 22 (1), 7. https://doi.org/10.22059/jisr.2022.342010.1298 [in Persian].
3. Alcamo, J. (2008) Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment, Developments in Integrated Environmental Assessment, Vol.2, pp.123–150. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1574-101X(08)00402-X
4. Amiri fahlyiani, M., amanpour, S., maleki, S., safaepor, M. (2019). Analysis of the Situation and Future Scenarios of Resilience in Metropolises of Iran: Case Study (Ahvaz Metropolise)., 9(35), 31-46. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.22285229.1397.9.35.3.6 [in Persian].
5. Arnell, N. W., Gosling, S. N (2016). The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change, 134 (3), 387-401. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5
6. Arnold, M, de Cosmo, S (2015), Building Social Resilience, Protecting and Empowering those most at risk, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / International Development Association or The World Bank,http:// worldbank.org.
7. Azizpour, M., Zangiabadi, A., Esmaeilian, Z. (2011). Prioritizing the effective factors in urban crisis management against the natural disasters (Studying sample: The organizations related to Isfahan's crisis). Geography and Environmental Planning, 22(3), 107-124. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.20085362.1390.22.3.7.2 [in Persian].
8. Bhaduri, S. (2020). Unit-2 Urban Management and Management of Urban Services. New Delhi: Indira Gandhi National Open University.http://egyankosh.ac.in//handle/123456789/59436
9. Bildan, L. (2003). Disaster management in southeast Asia: an overview. Asian Disaster Preparedness Center. https://www.jstor.org/stable/25773855.
10. Broccardo, L., Culasso, F., & Mauro, S. G. (2019). Smart city governance: exploring the institutional work of multiple actors towards collaboration. International Journal of Public Sector Management. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJPSM-05-2018-0126
11. Cento Bull, A., & Jones, B. (2006). Governance and social capital in urban regeneration: A comparison between Bristol and Naples. Urban Studies, 43(4), 767-786. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00420980600597558
12. Cherqui, F., Belmeziti, A., Granger, D., Sourdril, A., & Le Gauffre, P. (2015). Assessing urban potential flooding risk and identifying effective risk-reduction measures. Science of the Total Environment, 514, 418-425. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.02.027
13. danesfar, E., tabibiyan, M., & moinifar, M. (2022). Investigation and Evaluation of Urban Management Position in Iran Based on Indicators Good Governance (Case Study: Karaj City). Regional Planning, 12(45), 67-82. https://doi.org/10.30495/jzpm.2022.4325
14. Das, S. (2019). Geospatial mapping of flood susceptibility and hydro-geomorphic response to the floods in Ulhas basin, India. Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment, 14, 60-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2019.02.006
15. De Guimarães, J. C. F., Severo, E. A., Júnior, L. A. F., Da Costa, W. P. L. B., & Salmoria, F. T. (2020). Governance and quality of life in smart cities: Towards sustainable development goals. Journal of Cleaner Production, 253, 119926. ‏http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.119926
16. Degiorgis, M., Gnecco, G., Gorni, S., Roth, G., Sanguineti, M., & Taramasso, A. C. (2012). Classifiers for the detection of flood-prone areas using remote sensed elevation data. Journal of hydrology, 470, 302-315. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.09.006
17. Dezfuli, A. (2020). Rare atmospheric river caused record floods across the Middle East. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 101(4), E394-E400.
18. Ebrahimi, R., mahdavinejhad, E. (2018). Modeling future relationship between the average and annual heating and cooling degree days in Iran. Geographic Thought, 9(17), 79-98. (in Persian)
19. Ebrahimzadeh, I., esmaeil negad, M. (2017). The Future Challenge of Climatic Refugees Regional Developments Case study: South Khorasan. Geography and Development, 15(48), 1-18. https://doi.org/10.22111/gdij.2017.3347 [in Persian].
20. Eftekhari, A., pourtaheri, M., sadeghlou, T., sojasi qidari, H. (2010). Analyzing the Effective Factor in Participatory Flood Management in Rural Area (Case Study: flooded villages of Gorganrud Basin in Golestan Province). Journal of Rural Research, 1(2). (in Persian)
21. Eskandari Sani, M., Molazad, M., Poordadash, A. (2017). The Evaluation of Citizen Participation in Urban Management According to the Model of Urban Good Governance (Case Study: Aras Free Zone Jolfa City). Regional Planning, 7(27), 159-168. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.22516735.1396.7.27.12.9 [in Persian].
22. Esmaili, R., Hoseinzadeh, M., Eghbali, R. (2013). The effects of gravel extraction in geomorphic characteristic of Lavij River, Mazandaran province. Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 2(2). https://doi.org/10.22067/geo.v0i0.19935 [in Persian].
23. Estévez-Mauriz, L., Fonseca, J. A., Forgaci, C., & Björling, N. (2017). The livability of spaces: Performance and/or resilience? Reflections on the effects of spatial heterogeneity in transport and energy systems and the implications on urban environmental quality. International Journal of Sustainable Built Environment, 6(1), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijsbe.2016.10.001
24. Feng, S.; Hu, Q.; Huang, W.; Ho, C.H.; Li, R. and Tang, Z. (2014). Projected climate regime shift under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario CMIP5 simulations, Global and Planetary Change, 112: 41-52.https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/link_gateway/2014GPC...112...41F/doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2013.11.002
25. Fu, L.; Zhao, Y.; Xu, Zh. and Wu, B. (2015). Spatial and temporal dynamics of forest aboveground carbon stocks in response to climate and environmental changes, Soils Sediments, 15(2): 249-259. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11368-014-1050-x
26. Galloway, E.G., Reilly, A., Ryoo, S., Riley, A., Haslam, M., Brody, S., Highfield, W., Gunn, J., Rainey, J., Parker, S., (2018). The Growing Threat of Urban Flooding: A National Challenge 2018. University of Maryland and Texas A&M University.
27. Gani, A., & Duncan, R. (2007). Measuring Good Governance Using Time Series Data: Fiji Islands. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 12(3), 367-385. ‏ http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13547860701405979
28. Gholami, H., Panahi, A., Ahmadzadeh, H. (2021). Future study of urban settlements resilience against environmental hazards with emphasis on corona pandemic (Case study: Tabriz metropolis). Journal of Geography and Environmental Hazards, 9(4), 179-199. https://doi.org/10.22067/geoeh.2021.67419.1002 [in Persian].
29. Grahn, T., & Nyberg, L. (2017). Assessment of pluvial flood exposure and vulnerability of residential areas. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 21, 367-375.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.01.016
30. Gralepois, M. (2020). What Can We Learn from Planning Instruments in Flood Prevention? Comparative Illustration to Highlight the Challenges of Governance in Europe. Water, 12(6), 1841.
31. Hansson, K., Danielson, M., & Ekenberg, L. (2008). A framework for evaluation of flood management strategies. Journal of environmental management, 86(3), 465-480. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2006.12.037
32. Hardison, E. C., O’Driscoll, M. A., DeLoatch, J. P., Howard, R. J., & Brinson, M. M. (2009). Urban Land Use, Channel Incision, and Water Table Decline Along Coastal Plain Streams, North Carolina JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 45(4), 1032-1046.http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2009.00345.x
33. Hashemi Petrudi, S., Jafarnejad, A., Sadeghi Moghadam, M., Safari, H. (2017). Governance Challenges of Disaster Management Network: A Case Study of Tehran City. Journal of Public Administration, 9(3), 379-402. https://doi.org/10.22059/jipa.2018.247866.2151 [in Persian].
34. Hawley, R. J., Bledsoe, B. P., Stein, E. D., & Haines, B. E. (2012). Channel Evolution Model of Semiarid Stream Response to Urban‐Induced Hydromodification JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 48(4), 722-744.https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2012.00645.x
35. Hemingway, R., & Gunawan, O. (2018). The Natural Hazards Partnership: A public-sector collaboration across the UK for natural hazard disaster risk reduction. International journal of disaster risk reduction, 27, 499-511. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2017.11.014
36. Hogan, D. M., Jarnagin, S. T., Loperfido, J. V., & Van Ness, K. (2014). Mitigating the effects of landscape development on streams in urbanizing watersheds. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 50(1), 163-178.http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/jawr.12123
37. Hosseini, A., Ramazanpour, H., Ashori, H. (2020). Analysis of Urban Governance Indicators and Its Impact on Place Quality: The Case Study of Azarshahr City. Geographical Urban Planning Research (GUPR), 8(4), 813-831. https://doi.org/10.22059/jurbangeo.2021.306880.1339 [in Persian].
38. Houet, T. & Marchadier, C. & Bretagne, G. & Moine, M.P. & Rahim, Aguejdad. & Vincent, Viguie. & Bonhomme, M. & Lemonsu, A. & Avner, P. & Hidalgo, Julia. & Masson, V. (2016) Combining narratives and modelling approaches to simulate fine scale and long-term urban growth scenarios for climate adaptation, Environmental Modelling & Software, Vol.86, pp.1-13. https://doi.org/10.22034/jgeoq.2023.335887.3632
39. Huck, A., & Monstadt, J. (2019). Urban and infrastructure resilience: Diverging concepts and the need for cross-boundary learning. Environmental Science & Policy, 100, 211-220. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2019.05.008
40. Joseph, J. (2013). Resilience as Embedded Neoliberalism: A Governmentality Approach. Resilience, 1(1), 38-52. ‏https://doi.org/10.1080/21693293.2013.765741
41. Kaviani Rad, M. (2010). The Spatial Analysis of the Environmental Risks and Ecological Crises in Iran. Strategic Studies Quarterly, 13(48), 33-58. https://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.17350727.1389.13.48.2.1 (in Persian)
42. Korosteleva, E. A., & Flockhart, T. (2020). Resilience in EU and international institutions: Redefining local ownership in a new global governance agenda. Contemporary Security Policy, 41(2), 153-175.
43. Kundzewicz, Z., (2001). Non-structural flood protection and sustainability. In: Simonovic, S.P. (Ed.), Non Structural Meassures for Water Management Problems. PHI-UNESCO, pp. 8–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02508060208686972
44. Laskar, J. (2003, May). Frequency map analysis and particle accelerators. In Proceedings of the 2003 Particle Accelerator Conference (Vol. 1, pp. 378-382). IEEE.http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/PAC.2003.1288929
45. Lyall, C., & Tait, J. (2019). Beyond the limits to governance: new rules of engagement for the tentative governance of the life sciences. Research Policy, 48(5), 1128-1137.
46. Mahmoud, S.H., Gan, T.Y., (2018). Urbanization and climate change implications in flood risk management: developing an efficient decision support system for flood susceptibility mapping. Science of The Total Environment 636, 152–167.http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.04.282
47. Manca, D. P., Varnhagen, S., Brett-MacLean, P., Allan, G. M., Szafran, O., Ausford, A., ... & Turner, D. (2007). Rewards and challenges of family practice: Web-based survey using the Delphi method. Canadian Family Physician, 53(2), 277-286.
48. Markus, G. B., & Krings, A. (2020). Planning, participation, and power in a shrinking city: The Detroit Works Project. Journal of Urban Affairs, 42(8), 1141-1163.
49. https://doi.org/10.1080/07352166.2020.1779009
50. Marwitz, S., Maxson, N., Koch, B., Aukerman, T., Cassidy, J., & Belonger, D. (2008). Corporate crisis management: Managing a major crisis in a chemical facility. Journal of hazardous materials, 159(1), 92-104.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhazmat.2007.07.126
51. Meng, M., Dabrowski, M., & Stead, D. (2020). Enhancing Flood Resilience and Climate Adaptation: The State of the Art and New Directions for Spatial Planning. Sustainability, 12(19), 7864.
52. Mustafa, A., Bruwier, M., Archambeau, P., Erpicum, S., Pirotton, M., Dewals, B., & Teller, J. (2018). Effects of spatial planning on future flood risks in urban environments.Journal of environmental management, 225, 193-204.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.07.090
53. Nasimi, Z., zarghani, D., kharazmi, D. (2019). The Analysis of Risk and Likelihood of Bioterrorism Attacks on Urban Water Infrastructure. Geography and Territorial Spatial Arrangement, 9 (33), 125-146.https://doi.org/10.22111/gaij.2019.5137 [in Persian].
54. Poorahmad A, Piri E, Mohammadi Y, Parsa S, Heydari S. (2018). Good Urban Governance in Urban Neighborhoods (Case: Marivan City). IUESA; 6 (24) :81-98. http://dorl.net/dor/20.1001.1.23452870.1397.6.24.6.3 [in Persian].
55. Rabbani, T., Meshkini, A., Roknoldin eftekhari, A., Rafieian, M. (2019). Explaining Urban Governance Issues in Future Metropolitan Scenarios of Tehran Based on Qualitative Scenario Conversion Approach. Sustainable city, 2(1), 45-62. (in Persian)
56. Rafieioskoei, A., valizadeh, R., Babaei Aqdam, F., & PANAHI (2023). Structural analysis of the basic challenges of good urban governance by PLS method (Case study: Tabriz metropolis). Regional Planning, 13(49), 105-120.https://doi.org/10.30495/jzpm.2021.26201.3755 [in Persian].
57. Rashid, H. (2011). Interpreting flood disasters and flood hazard perceptions from newspaper discourse: Tale of two floods in the Red River valley, Manitoba, Canada. Applied Geography, 31(1), 35-45.
58. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2010.03.010
59. Ruiz-Campillo, X., Castán Broto, V., & Westman, L. (2021). Motivations and intended outcomes in local governments' declarations of climate emergency. Politics and Governance, 9(2), 17-28.
60. https://doi.org/10.17645/pag.v9i2.3755
61. Shamsuddin, S. (2020). Resilience resistance: The challenges and implications of urban resilience implementation. Cities, 103: 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2020.102763
62. Sheng, Y. K. (2010). Good urban governance in Southeast Asia. Environment and Urbanization Asia, 1(2), 131-147. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/097542531000100203
63. Sojasi, H., sadeghloo, T., Rayisi, E. (2014). Measuring crisis management knowledge level between rural local administrator with emphasis on earthquake (Case study: Gosht County in Saravan province). Journal of Rural Research, 5(3), 541-564. https://doi.org/10.22059/jrur.2014.53180 [in Persian].
64. Spring, A., Skinner, K., Simba, M., Nelson, E., Baltzer, J., Swanson, H., & Turetsky, M. (2019). Taking care of the land: An interdisciplinary approach to community-based food systems assessment in Kakisa, Northwest Territories, Canada. In Sustainable Food System Assessment (pp. 42-65). Routledge.
65. Tabatabai Sh. (2018). The Importance of Future Studies in Promoting Safety in the Conflict of Natural Disasters. Journal Saf Promot Inj Prev; 6(1):1-2.https://doi.org/10.22037/meipm.v6i1.22143 [in Persian].
66. Van Dijk, M. P. (2008). Urban management and institutional change: An integrated approach to achieving ecological cities (No. IHS WP 16). https://www.researchgate.net/publication/254759230_Urban_management_and_institutional_change_An_integrated_approach_to_achieving_ecological_cities
67. Vogel, R. M., Yaindl, C., & Walter, M. (2011). Nonstationarity: flood magnification and recurrence reduction factors in the United States JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 47(3), 464-474. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00541.x
68. Windle, P. E. (2004). Delphi technique: assessing component needs. Journal of PeriAnesthesia Nursing, 1(19), 46-47. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jopan.2003.11.005
69. Yang, H. (2021). Holistic Governance: An Explanatory Framework, In: Urban Governance in Transition (57-95). Singapore: Springer. ‏ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-7082-7_4
70. Yuan, W., Liu, M., Wan, F (2019). Study on the impact of rainfall pattern in small watersheds on rainfall warning index of flash flood event. Natural Hazards, 97(2), 665-682. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11069-019-03666-5
71. Zolfaqari, H., Rahimi, H., Oji, R. (2017). Assessment the Effects of Climate Change on the Degree of Heating and Cooling Days of Iran. Geography and Environmental Sustainability, 7(1), 1-20. https://doi.org/10.22059/jphgr.2019.265888.1007277 [in Persian].