تأثیر جهانی شدن و پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر رانت منابع طبیعی در کشورهای منا

فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

دوره 14، شماره 54، شهریور 1403، صفحه 37-46   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jzpm.2022.29588.4028

نویسندگان

حسنا اشرفی¹؛ علی سایه میری^{* 2}

¹دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد اقتصاد،، دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام، ایران.

²دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام، ایران

تاریخ دریافت: 25 آذر 1400،  تاریخ بازنگری: 24 فروردین 1401،  تاریخ پذیرش: 25 فروردین 1401 

چکیده

جنبه‌های متعددی از فرضیه کوزنتس وجود دارد که به‌اندازه کافی مورد تجزیه‌وتحلیل قرار نگرفته‌اند، ازجمله حوزه جهانی‌شدن و ‏شاخص پیچیدگی اقتصادی‎ ‎که به‌شدت نادیده گرفته‌شده‌اند. ازاین‌رو در تحقیق حاضر برای اولین بار با استفاده از داده‌های بازه زمانی ‏‏1995 تا 2019 و روش پانل اثرات ثابت با اعمال ‏EGLS‏ علاوه بر اثر جهانی‌شدن و پیچیدگی اقتصادی بر رانت منابع‌طبیعی به بررسی ‏فرضیه کوزنتس با استفاده از متغیر رانت منابع طبیعی در 16 کشور منطقه منا پرداخته‌شده است. نتایج تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که ‏افزایش پیچیدگی اقتصادی تأثیر منفی و معنی‌داری بر میزان رانت منابع طبیعی دارد به‌گونه‌ای که با افزایش یک واحدی شاخص ‏پیچیدگی اقتصادی میزان رانت منابع طبیعی بیش از 14/0 کاهش می‌یابد. علاوه بر آن نتایج نشان‌دهنده این است که تولید ناخالص ‏داخلی رابطه معکوس و معناداری با میزان رانت منابع طبیعی دارد؛ به‌گونه‌ای که با افزایش یک درصدی تولید ناخالص داخلی میزان ‏رانت منابع طبیعی بیش از 57/0 کاهش می‌یابد؛ درحالی‌که مجذور تولید ناخالص داخلی رابطه مثبت با میزان رانت منابع طبیعی ‏دارد؛ به‌گونه‌ای که با افزایش یک درصدی تولید ناخالص داخلی میزان رانت منابع طبیعی بیش از 06/0 افزایش می‌یابد؛ بنابراین ‏فرضیه کوزنتس در مورد کشورهای منا صادق نیست. نتایج تحقیق همچنین نشان‌دهنده تأثیر مثبت شاخص جهانی‌شدن بر رانت ‏منابع طبیعی است؛ به‌گونه‌ای که با افزایش یک درصدی شاخص جهانی‌شدن میزان رانت منابع طبیعی بیش از 34/0 افزایش می‌یابد. ‏با توجه به این نتایج و ازآنجاکه در فرآیند توسعه اقتصادی کشورهای منا درآمدهای حاصل از منابع طبیعی و به دنبال آن آسیب به ‏محیط‌زیست افزایش می‌یابد، دولت‌ها باید بر بهبود کیفیت نهادی و تشویق به استفاده از انرژی‌های تجدید پذیر برای به حداقل ‏رساندن اثرات منفی، تمرکز کنند.‏

کلیدواژه‌ها

پیچیدگی اقتصادی؛ جهانی شدن؛ فرضیه کوزنتس؛ روش پانل‏

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Impact of Globalization and Economic Complexity on Natural Resource Rents in Mena Countries

نویسندگان [English]

Hosna Ashrafi¹؛ ali sayehmiri²

¹MSc Student, Dept of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ilam, Ilam, Iran.

²Associated, Prof, Dept of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Ilam, Ilam, Iran.

چکیده [English]

There are several aspects of the Kuznets hypothesis that have not been sufficiently analyzed, including the ‎sphere of globalization and the index of economic complexity, which have been severely ignored. Therefore, in ‎this study, for the first time, using data from 1995 to 2019 and fixed effects panel method using EGLS in ‎addition to the effect of globalization and economic complexity on natural resource rents, kuznets hypothesis ‎using natural resource rent variable in 16 countries of MENA region has been investigated. The results show ‎that increasing economic complexity has a negative and significant effect on natural resource rents, which ‎reduces the natural resource rents by more than 0.14 by increasing one unit of economic complexity. In ‎addition, the results show that GDP has a significant inverse relationship with the rent of natural resources; In ‎such a way that with a one percent increase in GDP, the rent of natural resources decreases by more than 0.57; ‎While the square of GDP has a positive relationship with the rent of natural resources; In such a way that with a ‎one percent increase in GDP, the rent of natural resources increases by more than 0.06. Therefore, Kuznets's ‎hypothesis is not true for the Mena countries. The results also show the positive impact of the globalization ‎index on natural resource rents; In such a way that with a one percent increase in the globalization index, the ‎rate of natural resource rents increases by more than 0.34. According to these results, and because in the ‎process of economic development of the countries of Mena, revenues from natural resources and consequently ‎damage to the environment increase, Governments should focus on improving institutional quality and ‎encouraging the use of renewable energy to minimize negative impacts.‎
Extended Abstract
 
Introduction
There are several aspects of the EKC model that have not been sufficiently analyzed, including the area of ​​globalization, which has been severely overlooked.  Due to the complex and widespread impact of globalization on social, economic and political aspects, it needs to be carefully evaluated.  In addition, one of the concepts that has received much attention in recent years and justifies the growth gap between rich and poor countries is the Economic Complexity Index (ECI).  This is the first study of its kind that, in addition to examining the Kuznets hypothesis, examines the impact of economic complexity on natural resource rents among the Mena countries; Second, we add the variable "globalization" to the research model to analyze its effect on natural resource rents, which has generally been overlooked by past studies in the environmental literature.  Finally, in the present study, we present a policy discussion on natural resource rents that will help policymakers in their respective countries.
 
Methodology
The purpose of this study, in addition to examining the impact of globalization and economic complexity on natural resource rents in Mena countries (including Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, UAE, Egypt, Algeria, Lebanon, Jordan, Bahrain, Tunisia, Israel, Morocco  , Libya and Iraq) examines the Kuznets hypothesis among these countries using data from 1995 to 2019;  It should be noted that other countries in the region were excluded from the sample due to lack of information about them.  To achieve this goal in the present study, the following model is used.

             

Where, RENT: dependent variable and represents the logarithm of rent of natural resources of the country i in time t, ECI: indicator of economic complexity of the country and at the time, KOF: logarithm is the indicator of globalization of the country and in year t; Measures social and political globalization. GDP: Represents the logarithm of GDP per capita of country 1 at time t.  The inverse of Kuznets is used and if in this study, the GDP sign is positive and the square sign is negative, the result of this relationship is confirmed. In addition, in Equation (1), X: indicates the control variables For example, foreign direct investment and the logarithm of the country's population density is 1 in year T. Considering that the nature of the present research data is panel data, ie a combination of cross-sectional data and time series.
 
Results and Discussion
The results show that increasing economic complexity has a negative and significant effect on natural resource rents, which reduces the natural resource rents by more than 0.14 by increasing one unit of economic complexity. In addition, the results show that GDP has a significant inverse relationship with the rent of natural resources; In such a way that with a one percent increase in GDP, the rent of natural resources decreases by more than 0.57; While the square of GDP has a positive relationship with the rent of natural resources; In such a way that with a one percent increase in GDP, the rent of natural resources increases by more than 0.06. Therefore, Kuznets's hypothesis is not true for the Mena countries. The results also show the positive impact of the globalization index on natural resource rents; In such a way that with a one percent increase in the globalization index, the rate of natural resource rents increases by more than 0.34. According to these results, and because in the process of economic development of the countries of Mena, revenues from natural resources and consequently damage to the environment increase, Governments should focus on improving institutional quality and encouraging the use of renewable energy to minimize negative impacts.
 
Conclusion
  The results also show the positive effect of the globalization index on natural resource rents at an error rate of 1%; In such a way that with the increase of one unit, the globalization index increases the yield of natural resources by more than 0.34 units.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Economic complexity, globalization, Kuznets hypothesis, panel method

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