پیش بینی مکانی تاب آوری شهر در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی (مطالعه موردی : شهر قائمشهر)

فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

دوره 14، شماره 54، شهریور 1403، صفحه 131-146   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jzpm.2022.30577.4115

نویسندگان

حمزه بهروزی¹؛ محمدرضا زندمقدم^{* 2}؛ سعید کامیابی³

¹دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنا‌مه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، سمنان، ایران

²دانشیار جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی سمنان

³دانشیار دکتری جغرافیا و برنا‌مه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی ، سمنان، ایران

تاریخ دریافت: 19 خرداد 1401،  تاریخ بازنگری: 19 شهریور 1401،  تاریخ پذیرش: 21 شهریور 1401 

چکیده

تاب‌آوری را «یک فرایند توانایی، یا پیامد سازگاری موفقیت آمیز علی‌رغم شرایط تهدید کننده» تعریف نموده‌اند که نقش مهمی در مقابله با تنیدگی‌ها و تهدیدهای زندگی و آثار نامطلوب آن دارد .همچنین شهرهای تاب آور آسیب پذیری در برابر رویدادهای شدید را کاهش می‌دهند و به طور خلاقانه به تغییرهای زیست محیطی، اقتصادی و اجتماعی به منظور افزایش پایداری بلند مدت خود پاسخ می‌دهند. لذا هدف از این پژوهش, پیش بینی مکانی تاب آوری شهر قائمشهر در برابر مخاطرات طبیعی می‌باشد. روش بکار رفته در این پژوهش,بهره گیری از نرم افزارGIS به منظور تعیین نقاط دارای تاب آوری بیشتر و استفاده از روش های الگوریتم ژنتیک(GA)و هوش ازدحامی ذرات(PSO)و برنامه نویسی آنها در محیط MATLAB می باشد,تا با‌‌ استفاده ازآن مهمترین مولفه‌های تاب‌آوری شهر و راهکارهای موثر در تقویت تاب‌آوری مشخص گردند..پژوهش حاضر طی2مرحله صورت گرفته که در مرحله اول, ابتدا با استفاده ازمدل AHP میزان تاب آوری نقاط شهری در برابر 3 مخاطره سیل ، زلزله و رانش زمین تعیین گردید و پس از آن با ترکیب همه مولفه های ذکر شده نقشه نهایی مخاطرات(میزان تاب آوری) تهیه شد. در مرحله دوم جهت تعیین مهمترین مولفه‌های تاب‌آوری شهر, این بار 32 شاخص از مولفه های تاب آوری براساس4 معیار (کالبدی –فضایی، اقتصادی، اجتماعی، نهادی) تدوین و با استفاده از روش الگوریتم ژنتیک مورد بررسی قرار گرفت که در نهایت 3 نقطه از شهر به ترتیب ( استادیوم شهید وطنی،پارک تلار،پارک سراج), به عنوان مناطق دارای تاب‌آوری بیشتر انتخاب و اولویت‌بندی شدند. سپس به منظور تایید و مقایسه یافته های تحقیق توسط الگوریتم ژنتیک(GA) از روش PSO بهره گرفته شد.در نتیجه می توان چنین بیان نمود که تفاوت معنی داری از لحاظ تاب آوری در بین مناطق شهر وجود دارد که افزایش میزان تاب آوری شهر قائمشهردر مرحله اول نیازمند تقویت و اصلاح ساختارهای محیط طبیعی و سپس حفظ و نگهداشت محیط ایمن است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

تاب‌آوری؛ الگوریتم ژنتیک؛ مخاطرات طبیعی؛ PSO؛ MATLAB

عنوان مقاله [English]

Spatial prediction of city resilience against natural hazards (case study: Qaemshahr city)

نویسندگان [English]

hamzeh behrouzi¹؛ mohamadreza zandmoghadam²؛ Saeid Kamyabi³

¹PhD student in Geography and Urban Planning, Islamic Azad University, Semnan, Iran

²Associate Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Islamic Azad University of Semnan

³Associate Professor, PhD in Geography and Urban Planning, Islamic Azad University, Semnan, Iran

چکیده [English]

Resilience has been defined as "a process of ability, or the result of successful adaptation despite threatening conditions", which plays an important role in dealing with the stresses and threats of life and its adverse effects. Also, resilient cities are vulnerable to events. mitigate extremes and respond creatively to environmental, economic and social changes in order to increase their long-term sustainability. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to predict the resilience of Qaemshahr city against natural hazards. The method used in this research is to use GIS software in order to determine points with more resilience and use genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm intelligence (PSO) methods and their programming in MATLAB environment, in order to Using it, the most important components of the city's resilience and the effective strategies to strengthen resilience will be determined. The present research was conducted in two stages, in the first stage, first, using the AHP model, the degree of resilience of urban areas against the 3 hazards of floods and earthquakes. and the landslide was determined and after that the final risk map (resilience level) was prepared by combining all the mentioned components. In the second stage, in order to determine the most important components of the city's resilience, this time 32 indicators of the resilience components were compiled based on 4 criteria (physical-spatial, economic, social, institutional) and analyzed using the genetic algorithm method. Finally, 3 points of the city (Shahid Watani Stadium, Telar Park, Siraj Park) were selected and prioritized as areas with more resilience. Then, in order to confirm and compare the research findings, the PSO method was used by the genetic algorithm (GA). As a result, it can be said that there is a significant difference in terms of resilience among the city's regions, that the increase in the resilience of Qaimshahr city The first stage requires strengthening and modifying the structures of the natural environment and then maintaining the safe environment.
Extended Abstract
 
Introduction
The concept of resilience was first proposed by Halling in 1973 in the field of ecology. However, different definitions of resilience in the field of accidents have been presented since then, the last of which is related to the definitions of the American National Academy ( Carolin, C., and Benoit, R., (2010)). It should be noted that the introduction of the issue of resilience into the urban issue, crisis management and organizations, and even the lives of people is the birth of a new culture. Phrases such as resilient societies, resilient livelihoods, creating resilient societies and resilient organizations are commonly used in scientific articles and operational plans.
 
Methodology
In this study, according to the objectives and facilities of collecting the required data from reports, documents and statistical information from related organizations and maps of comprehensive and detailed plans and aerial photographs and preparing a questionnaire. Also considering that this
The research is applied and its results can be used in Ghaemshahr development projects, so to select the research method, classification methods were used. According to this method, this research will be a combination of different research methods. In this research, first a descriptive research method is used about the current situation and then the causal method is used. With this method - the reasons for the creation of this city and how to expand it and then the reactions that have occurred against it in the physical area of the city are investigated and after summarizing this section, the use of information collected from urban planning sources have become indicators. And is used to evaluate and measure the resilience of the city. Is more efficient and uses the methods of genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm intelligence (PSO) and their programming in MATLAB environment, to use the most important components of urban resilience and effective solutions to strengthen the cloud Be specified. The present study was conducted in two stages. In the first stage, first, using AHP model, the degree of resilience of urban areas against the three risks of floods, earthquakes and landslides was determined, and then by combining all the mentioned components, the final risk map (resilience rate) was prepared. In the second stage, to determine the most important components of resilience in the city, this time 32 indicators of resilience components based on 4 criteria (physical-spatial, economic, social, institutional) were developed and examined using the genetic algorithm method. The PSO method was used to confirm and compare the research findings by genetic algorithm (GA). Finally, a descriptive method will be used to evaluate and explain the problems and present the results.
 
Results and Discussion
The purpose of this study is to investigate the different dimensions of resilience of Ghaemshahr city against natural hazards with emphasis on 3 components of earthquake, flood and landslide. And green spaces, educational uses, population density, communication routes, sports uses, physical density, distances of high voltage power lines and worn texture as the criteria studied for the selected earthquake category. It has been added and using the AHP model the Geographic Information System (GIS) to produce weighted layers of the above criteria has been produced.
 
Conclusion
Increased urban resilience is influenced by various structures that play a fundamental role as a context for development. Planning and policy-making in urban management requires a general determination and an integrated management at different geographical levels, which from this perspective, a systematic approach to all the factors of physical-spatial, institutional, economic and social structures is essential. According to the results of this study, increasing the resilience of Ghaemshahr in the first stage requires strengthening and modifying the structures of the natural environment and then maintaining the existing potentials.
 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Resilience, Genetic Algorithm, Natural Hazards, PSO, MATLAB

مراجع

Ahmadzadeh Kermani, Hamid and Bahram Aminzadeh Goharrizi, 2020, Evaluation of urban resilience dimensions using the average of total distances from the optimal limit (Case study: District 9 of Mashhad Municipality), City identity.pp.33-44

2.Ahmadi, Abdolmajid et al., 2018, Evaluation of resilience of urban environment against natural hazards with emphasis on earthquake using fuzzy logic and GIS (Case study: Urmia city), Geography and environmental hazards, No. 27, Fall 2018.pp.115-132

3.Adger, W., N., Brooks, N., Kelly, M., Bentham, G., Agnew, M., and Erikson, S. (2004). “New.p.141

4.Anne Tiernan,Lex Drennan,Johanna Nalau,Esther Onyango,Lochlan Morrissey &Brendan Mackey, A review of themes in disaster resilience literature and international practice since 2012, journal of Policy Design and Practice,2018.pp.53-74

5.Brooks, N., Adger, W., N., and Kelly, P., M., (2005). “ the Determinants of Vulnerability and Adaptive capacity at the National level and the Implication for Adaptation”.p.p.151-163

6.Cutter, S.L., Barnes, L., Berry, M., Burton, C., Evans, E., Tate, E., and Webb, J., (2008). A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters, Global Environmental change.pp.598-606

7.Carolin, C., and Benoit, R., (2010). Evalution of Organizational resilienc: application in Quebec.pp.111-128

8.Denis J parker, 2020, Disaster resilience – a challenged science,Journal of Environmental Hazard s.pp.1-9

9.Laijun Zhao, Huiyong Li, Yan Sun, Rongbing Huang , Qingmi Hu, Jiajia Wang and Fei Gao,2017, Planning Emergency Shelters for Urban Disaster Resilience: An Integrated Location-Allocation Modeling Approach, china.p.2098

10.Folk, C., (2006). Resilienc: the emergence of perspective for social-ecological systems analyses, Global Environmental change.pp.191-206

11.Herr, (2011). Humanitarian emergency Response Review.pp.33-51

12.Firouzpour K. Achievements of International law in fulfillment of right to health in disabled children. Journal of Legal Research. 2021 Aug 23;20(46):325-346. https://jlr.sdil.ac.ir/article_132624.html?lang

13.Heydari, Tahmasabi Moghadam, Akbari. Evaluation of the physical resilience of the central tissue of cities against accidents (case example: district 8 of Shiraz city). Geography and development of urban space. 2022 Apr 20. https://jgusd.um.ac.ir/index.php/article_42100.

14.J. Kevin Summers Linda C. Harwell Lisa M. Smith Kyle D. Buck, Measuring Community Resilience to Natural Hazards: The Natural Hazard Resilience Screening Index (NaHRSI)—Development and Application to the United States, 2018, Geo Health.pp.140

15.Kazemi, Davood, Andalib, Alireza. (2015). Development of a conceptual model for measuring the organizational resilience of the International Conference on Research in Science and Technology Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey.pp.18-31

16.Laura A. Bakkensen Cate Fox‐Lent Laura K. Read Igor Linkov, Validating Resilience and Vulnerability Indices in the Context of Natural Disasters, © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.pp.982-1004

17.McManus, et al, (2008). Organisational resilience in new zealand. University of Canterbury.pp.121.140

18.McManus, S., Dalziell, E., (2004). “Resilience, Vulnerability and Adaptive

19.capacityImplications for system performance”.

 20.Manyena, S. B. (2006). The concept of resilience revisited‟.pp.434-450

21.Maleki, Saeed; Saeed Amanpour; Ali Shojaeian and Seyedeh Masoumeh Razavi, 2016, Study and assessment of resilience in physical and social dimensions against earthquakes (Izeh case study), Quarterly Journal of Urban Structure and Function Studies.pp.1-17

22.Muchadenyika, D., & Williams, J.J. .(2017)

. Politics and the practice of planning: the case

ofZimbabweancities,Cities,Volume63,33-40

23.Parvizian, Maleki. Vulnerability of urban areas to the risk of earthquakes based on the IHWP model (case study: areas of the 6th region of Ahvaz metropolis). Scientific magazine. 2022 Apr 27. https://journal.ut.ac.ir/article_87024.html

24.Rezaei, Mohammad Reza. (2013), Evaluation of economic and institutional resilience of urban communities against natural disasters (Case study:Earthquake inTehran eighborhoods).pp.27-38

25.Ramezanzadeh Lesboui, Mehdi, Badri, Ali. (2014), Explaining the socio-economic structures of local communities' resilience to natural disasters with the approach of flood, geography (Iranian Journal of Geographical Association, New Volume, Twelfth Year, No. 40, Spring 2014.pp-83-94

26.Rafieian, Mojtaba, Motahari, Zeinab Sadat. (2012), Designing a Model for Studying the Community-Based Crisis Risk Management Approach, Crisis Management Quarterly, First Issue, Spring 2012.pp.18-29

27.Rezaei, Mohammad Reza. (2011), Explaining the resilience of urban communities to reduce the effects of natural disasters (earthquakes), PhD thesis in geography and urban planning.pp.609-623

28.resilience using causal network model, Environmental Science, Thirty-seventh year, No. 59, Fall 90, pp. 99-112

29.Salmanian Shafa, Alireza, Meshkini, Mohammad Hossein, Pourbagher, Mahmoud. (2015), The study of the resilience of electricity distribution networks in crisis situations, 20th Electricity Distribution Conference.pp.425-444

30.Salehi, Ismail, Aghababaei, Mohammad Taghi, Sarmadi, Hajar, Farzad Behtash, Mohammad Reza.(2010),Environmental.pp.57-75

31.Shirt sales, Bahareh Sadat, Saeed Kamiabi. 2018. The role of fire station in active and passive defense. Sixth National Conference on AppliedResearchinCivilEngineering, rchitecture and Urban Management.pp141-160

32.Tasheti, Ali and Zaker Haghighi, Kianoosh, 1400, evaluating the flexibility of the urban spatial structure against the changes related to the road network (study example: Sari) - Regional Planning Scientific and Research Quarterly, 1401: 12 (45): 177-192

33.Translated manuscript book. (2012), Sustain Cities - My City is Getting Ready, Participating in the Global Campaign (2010-2015), Geneva, March 2012.pp.99-114

34.Timmerman, P, (1981). Vulnerability, Resilienc and the collapse of society: A Review of model and possible climatic Application, Institute for Environmental studies university of Torento Canada.

35.Totkar,Mohamad.(2015) Determining the degree of resilience and recognizing the factors affecting its increase during the crisis of the master's thesis, natural disaster management of Shahid Beheshti University, Faculty of Civil Engineering - Water and Environment.

36.Zabihi, Mohammad Reza, Khaledar, Mustafa. (2015), The study of organizational resilience in the context of resistance economics, the first national conference on management, innovation and entrepreneurship in the context of resistance economics.2015.pp-35-42

37.Zandmoghadam, Mohammad Reza, Sajjad Bazdar, Saeed Kamyabi,. 2017. Zoning and spatial approach to crisis management with emphasis on social and physical vulnerability of cities to earthquakes (case study of Ilam province). Geography (Regional Planning. 409-420.