کاهش آسیب‏پذیری شریان‏های حیاتی در برابر سیل (مطالعه موردی: شهرستان سبزوار)

فصلنامه علمی و پژوهشی پژوهش و برنامه ریزی شهری

مقاله 1، دوره 14، شماره 52، اردیبهشت 1402، صفحه 1-16   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jupm.2021.26428.3693

نویسندگان

ابوالقاسم سنائی فرد^{* 1}؛ ابوالقاسم امیر احمدی²؛ یعقوب زنگنه³

¹دانشجو دکتری ژئومورفولوژی، دانشکده جغرافیا و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار، ایران.

²استاد ژئومورفولوژی، دانشکده جغرافیا و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار، ایران.

³دانشیار گروه برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکده جغرافیا و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه حکیم سبزواری، سبزوار، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت: 24 آبان 1399،  تاریخ بازنگری: 20 مرداد 1400،  تاریخ پذیرش: 22 مرداد 1400 

چکیده

سیل یکی از مخرب‌ترین بلایای طبیعی است که معمولا با خسارت‌های جانی و مالی فراوانی همراه است. سیل همه ساله در کشور ایران خسارات زیادی را به منابع اقتصادی وارد می‌آورد. وقوع سیل و خسارات ناشی از آن در ایران طی سال-های اخیر روند افزایشی داشته است. هدف از این پژوهش، بررسی میزان خطر پذیری سیلاب و ارزیابی خسارات وارده به شهر سبزوار می‌باشد. جهت بررسی سیلاب از مدل ماشین بردار پشتیبان برای مدل‌سازی سیلاب استفاده شد. پس از بررسی‌های صورت گرفته 56 نقطه سیل گیر ثبت شده و 10 عامل موثر در وقوع سیل شامل کاربری اراضی، تراکم جمعیت، مسیل‌ها، طبقات شیب، تراکم مسکونی، ضریب CN، ضزیب رواناب، تراکم جمعیت، فضای باز و قدمت ابنیه در نظر گرفته شد. سپس جهت برآورد میزان رواناب در منطقه مورد مطالعه از روش‌ جاستین و I.C.A.R استفاده گریده است و طبق منحنی پوش و دیکن براورد سیلاب منطقه در دوره بازگشت 25 ساله و دوره بازگشت 50 ساله جهت دوره-های بازگشت برآورد گردید و نتایج نشان داد که مقدار بارندگی در سطح منطقه توسط مدل به ‌سرعت قابل ‌تبدیل به رواناب و پس از روندیابی، به بده و تراز آب در مقاطع مورد نظر می‌باشد. ارزیابی مدل توسط معیارهای مختلف سنجش دقت از جمله ضریب کاپا، ریشه میانگین مربعات خطا، منحنی مشخصه عملکرد سیستم ROC و منحنی میزان پیش-بینی صورت گرفت. هدف اصلی پژوهش بررسی سیلاب و عومل موثر در وقوع آن‌ها و در نهایت شناسایی مناطق مستعد سیلاب با استفاده از مدل ماشین بردار پشتیبان جهت کاهش بحران و آسیب‌پذیری سیلاب شهری می‌باشد. با توجه به مطالعات انجام شده مشخص گردید سیل بندهای ضلع شمال شهر با مسیل‌های موجود در شهر سبزوار منطبق نمی‌باشد به طوری که شبکه معابر شهری بیش از شبکه مسیل‏ها سبزوار در هدایت سیلاب شهری نقش دارند، پس نیاز است مسیل‏های مناسب جهت هدایت آبهای جاری و سیلاب‌ها در شهرستان سبزوار ایجاد شود تا نقش مسیل‌ها در هدایت سیل بیشتر از معابر شهری گردد. نتایج به دست آمده از این پژوهش می‌تواند برای مدیریت مناطق آسیب‌پذیر سیل و کاهش بحران استفاده شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

مدیریت بحران؛ سیلاب؛ آسیب‌پذیری؛ سبزوار؛ مدل ماشین بردار پشتیبان

عنوان مقاله [English]

Reducing the Vulnerability of Vital Arteries to Flood (Case Study: Sabzevar County)

نویسندگان [English]

Abolghasem Sanaifard¹؛ Abolghasem Amirahmadi²؛ Yaghoob Zanganeh³

¹PhD Student in Geomorphology, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran.

²Professor of Geomorphology, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran.

³Associate Professor of Urban Planning Department, Faculty of Geography and Environmental Sciences, Hakim Sabzevari University, Sabzevar, Iran.

چکیده [English]

As the most devastating natural disasters, floods are often associated with significant loss of life and property. Every year, floods in Iran cause a lot of damage to economic resources. The occurrence of floods and the resulting damage in Iran has been increasing in recent years. The study aims to investigate the risk of floods and assess the damage to Sabzevar city. To study the flood, the support vector machine model was used for flood modeling. After investigating 56 recorded flood points, ten factors influencing floods' occurrence, including land use, population density, canals, slope classes, residential density, CN coefficient, runoff rate, population density, open space, and age of buildings were considered. Then, Justin and ICAR methods were employed to estimate the study area runoff. According to the envelope and Deacon curve, the flood in the region was evaluated in 25-year and 50-year return periods. The results showed that the model's amount of rainfall could be quickly converted into runoff and after routing to yield and water level in the desired sections. The model was evaluated by various accuracy measures, including kappa coefficient, RMSE, system ROC curve performance and prediction rate curve (PRC). The study aims to investigate floods and the factors affecting their occurrence and identify areas prone to floods using the support vector machine (SVM) model to reduce the crisis and vulnerability to urban floods. According to the studies, it was found that the flood dams on the north side of the city do not correspond to the existing problems in Sabzevar city so that the network of urban thoroughfares is more involved in directing urban floods than the network of Sabzevar canals. Therefore, it is necessary to create suitable channels for directing running water and floods in Sabzevar city so that the role of channels in leading floods is more than urban roads. The results of this study can be used to manage flood vulnerable areas and reduce crises.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Crisis Management, Flood, Vulnerability, Sabzevar, Support Vector Machine (SVM) Model

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