آینده پژوهی رشد شهری کلانشهر تبریز با تاکید بر رویکرد شهر هوشمند

فصلنامه علمی و پژوهشی پژوهش و برنامه ریزی شهری

مقاله 3، دوره 13، شماره 49، مرداد 1401، صفحه 31-46   

نوع مقاله: مقاله برگرفته از پایان نامه

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jupm.2022.5540

نویسندگان

نسیم علی عباس شهیر¹؛ کریم حسین زاده دلیر^{* 2}؛ حسین نظم فر³

¹دانشجوی دکتری تخصصی شهرسازی، واحد مرند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرند، ایران.

²استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، واحد مرند، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، مرند، ایران.

³استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت: 19 آذر 1399،  تاریخ بازنگری: 07 اردیبهشت 1400،  تاریخ پذیرش: 08 اردیبهشت 1400 

چکیده

کلانشهر تبریز دارای منابع و ظرفیت‌های فراوانی برای هوشمندشدن در ابعاد گوناگون با توجه به ظرفیت‌های درونی و بیرونی است و این امر امروزه به یکی از دغدغه‌های اصلی شهروندان و مسئولان این شهر تبدیل شده است. در این پژوهش به تیین آینده‌پژوهی تحولات رشد کلانشهر تبریز مبتنی بر رویکرد شهر هوشمند پرداخته شده است.جهت تجزیه و تحلیل منابع پژوهش به شناسایی و تعیین سطح اهمیت شاخص‌های عملیاتی توسعه آتی کلانشهر تبریز و تعیین روابط تأثیر و تأثری بین مهم‌ترین شاخص‌های شناسایی شده مبتنی بر رویکرد مخبره محور پرداخته شده است. به این صورتکه ابتدا شاخص‌های عملیاتی پژوهش (شاخص‌های شش‌گانه شهر هوشمند) و گویه‌های پژوهش (شامل 25 مورد)، استخراج و در مرحله اول با استفاده از روش AHP در نرم‌افزار Expert Choice به ارزیابی و مقایسه زوجی معیارها مبتنی بر ارزیابی خبرگان پرداخته شد. در مرحله دوم مبتنی بر فرمول‌نویسی بهینه در محیط اکسل و شناسایی سطوح تاثیرگذاری و تاثیرپذیری شاخص‌ها، از روش دیمتل فازی بهره برده شده است. مطابق با تحلیل‌های کمی، از 10 گویه مرتبط با عوامل آینده شهر تبریز، به رتبه بندی سلسله مراتبی 25 گویه وزن دار شده پرداخته شد و در مجموع نمودار ماتریسی 10*10 ترسیم شد. براساس نتایج کیفی به دست آمده مشخص گردید که بارزترین ویژگی کلانشهر تبریز توجه به عرصه منابع طبیعی و محافظت از منابع زیست‌کره (آب، خاک و هوا) است. پس از این ابعاد، توجه به دولت الکترونیک، توسعه زیرساخت ITC، حمل و نقل هوشمند، منابع انسانی و توسعه اجتماعی به ترتیب دارای بیش‌ترین اهمیت بوده‌اند. در زمینة بررسی مقادیر تاثیرگذاری و تاثیرپذیری (دیمتل) مشخص گردید که توسعه مبتنی بر دانش برنامه‌ریزی شهری، با تأسیس شرکت‌های دانش بنیان در این حوزه (و سایر حوزه‌های مرتبط با مدیریت شهری در عرصه فیزیکی و مجازی) مهم‌ترین عامل تاثیرگذار در تحقق شهر هوشمند آینده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

آینده‌پژوهی؛ ناپایداری؛ رشد و توسعة‌ شهری؛ شهر هوشمند؛ کلانشهر تبریز

عنوان مقاله [English]

Future Study of Tabriz metropolitan urban growth with emphasis on smart city approach

نویسندگان [English]

Nasim Ali Abbas Shahir¹؛ Karim Hosainzadeh Dalir²؛ Hossein Nazmfar³

¹Ph.D. Student Department of urbanism, Marand Branch, Islamic azad university, Islamic Azad university, Marand, Iran.

²Professor of Department of Geography and urban planning, Marand branch, Islamic azad university, Marand, Iran.

³Professor of Department of Geography and urban planning, University of Mohaghegh Ardabili, Ardabil, Iran.

چکیده [English]

The metropolis of Tabriz has many resources and capacities to be smart in various dimensions according to internal and external capacities, and this has become one of the main concerns of the citizens and officials of this city today. In this research, the future research of Tabriz metropolis growth developments based on the smart city approach has been studied. In order to analyze the research resources, to identify and determine the level of importance of operational indicators of Tabriz metropolis future development The informant-centered approach is discussed. In this way, first the operational indicators of the research (six indicators of the smart city) and research items (including 25 items) were extracted and in the first stage, using AHP method in Expert Choice software, evaluation and comparison of criteria based on expert evaluation were performed. In the second stage, based on optimal formulation in Excel environment and identifying the levels of influence and effectiveness of the indicators, the fuzzy Demitel method has been used. According to quantitative analyzes, out of 10 items related to the future factors of Tabriz city, 25 weighted items were ranked hierarchically and a total of 10 * 10 matrix diagrams were drawn. Based on the obtained qualitative results, it was determined that the most prominent feature of Tabriz metropolis is attention to the field of natural resources and protection of biosphere resources (water, soil and air). After these dimensions, attention to e-government, ITC infrastructure development, smart transportation, human resources and social development have been the most important, respectively. In the study of impact and impact values (Demtel) it was found that development based on knowledge of urban planning, with the establishment of knowledge-based companies in this field (and other areas related to urban management in the physical and virtual field) is the most important factor in realizing the future smart city Is.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Future study, Instability, Urban Growth and Development, Smart City, Tabriz Metropolis

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