شناسایی عوامل کلیدی موثر بر حکمروایی خوب شهری با رویکرد سناریونویسی (مطالعه موردی: شهر فسا)

فصلنامه علمی و پژوهشی پژوهش و برنامه ریزی شهری

مقاله 8، دوره 14، شماره 52، اردیبهشت 1402، صفحه 123-140   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jupm.2021.27309.3786

نویسندگان

مهشید محمد ابراهیمی¹؛ امیر اشنویی نوش آبادی^{* 2}

¹مربی گروه معماری، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.

²استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه لرستان، خرم آباد، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت: 22 بهمن 1399،  تاریخ بازنگری: 30 مرداد 1400،  تاریخ پذیرش: 01 شهریور 1400 

چکیده

حکمروایی خوب شهری به عنوان یکی از بااهمیت ترین و مؤثرترین رویکردهای عرصه مدیریت شهری در جهان مطرح است. از آنجا که درک وضعیت آینده حکمرانی خوب در شهرهای کشورمان میتواند در برنامه ریزی و تصمیمگیری مدیران بسیار موثر باشد و به دلیل وجود عدم قطعیت و نیاز به پیش بینی های محتمل؛ هدف پژوهش حاضر، شناسایی عوامل کلیدی موثر بر حکمروایی خوب شهری با رویکرد سناریونویسی در شهر فسا در افق 1430 در نظر گرفته شده است. این پژوهش به لحاظ هدف کاربردی و روش آن توصیفی – تحلیلی است. از نرم افزار میک مک برای تحلیل تأثیر عوامل بر همدیگر استفاده شده است. همچنین برای انجام محاسبات سناریونویسی (تدوین سناریو) از نرمافزار سناریو ویزارد استفاده شده است. جامعه آماری تحقیق را متخصصان و خبرگانی در زمینه مدیریت شهری، حکمروایی و آینده پژوهی از دانش و تجربه لازم و کافی برخوردار هستند، تشکیل داده است که تعداد آنها 22 نفر میباشد. نتایج نشان میدهد که عوامل کلیدی موثر بر آینده حکمروایی شهر فسا در افق 1430 شامل التزام مدیریت شهری به برابری در برابر قانون، مقاومت مدیریت شهری در برابر رفتارهای خلاف قانون شهروندان، احساس مسئولیت پذیری مدیران و مسئولان شهری، صادق بودن مدیریت شهری در ارائه برنامه ها، عدالت در توزیع برابر و عادلانه امکانات شهری، عدم وجود فساد در سیستم مدیریت شهری، استفاده معقولانه از منابع و امکانات، بهبود روشها و اقدامات براساس علم روز، شفافیت در ارائه عملکرد، تساهل و پذیرش رویکردهای متنوع، عدالت جنسیتی، کنترل و نظارت مناسب بر ساخت وسازهای شهری، مشارکت مردم در برنامهریزی، تصمیمسازی، تصمیمگیری و فعالیتها، شفافیت در تصمیمگیری است. همچنین، 7 سناریوی با ترکیب‌های متفاوتی از سه وضعیت، مطلوب، ایستا و بحرانی احتمال وقوع در حکمروایی خوب شهری در شهر فسا را دارند که وضعیت‌های بحرانی بخش عمده‌ای از صفحه سناریوها را به خود اختصاص داده‌اند و وضعیت‌های مطلوب و ایستا در الویتهای بعدی قرار دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

حکمروایی خوب شهری؛ سناریو نویسی؛ مدیریت شهری؛ شهر فسا

عنوان مقاله [English]

Identifying the Key Factors Affecting Good Urban Governance with a Scenario Planning Approach Case study: Fasa city

نویسندگان [English]

mahshid Mohammad ebrahimi¹؛ amir oshnooei nooshabadi²

¹Instructor, Department of Architecture, Payame Noor University, tehran, Iran.

²Assistant Professor of Geography, Lorestan University, Khorramabad, Iran

چکیده [English]

Good urban governance is considered as one of the most important and effective approaches in the field of urban management in the world. Because understanding the future of good governance in our country's cities can be very effective in the planning and decision-making of managers, and due to the uncertainty and the need for possible predictions, the present study aimed to identify the key factors affecting good urban governance with a scenario planning approach in Fasa city in the horizon of 1430. This research is descriptive-analytical in terms of applied purpose and method. MICMAC software has been used to analyze the effect of factors on each other. Scenario planning software has also been used to perform scenario calculations (scenario editing). The statistical population consists of 22 experts and scholars in the field of urban management, governance and future research with the necessary and sufficient knowledge and experience. The results indicated that the key factors affecting the future of the Fasa city governance in the horizon of 1430 have been the commitment of urban management to equality before the law, the resistance of urban management to illegal behaviors of citizens, the sense of responsibility of managers and city officials, the honesty of urban management in presenting programs, justice in equal and equitable distribution of urban facilities, absence of corruption in urban management system, reasonable use of resources and facilities, improvement of methods and actions based on modern science, transparency in performance, tolerance and acceptance of various approaches, gender justice, proper control and supervision of urban construction, public participation in planning, planning, decision-making and activities, and transparency in decision-making. In addition, seven scenarios with different combinations of three favorable, static and critical conditions are likely to occur in good urban governance in Fasa city.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Good Urban Governance, Scenario Planning, Urban Management, Fasa City

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