سنجش آسیب پذیری استان‌های ایران از تغییرات اقلیمی

فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

دوره 15، ویژه نامه، اردیبهشت 1402، صفحه 106-89   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jae.2023.28683.2280

نویسندگان

فاطمه عساکره¹؛ زکریا فرج زاده^{* 2}

¹دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز، ایران.

²دانشیار بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شیراز، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت: 21 مرداد 1400،  تاریخ بازنگری: 24 تیر 1402،  تاریخ پذیرش: 07 خرداد 1400 

چکیده

مقدمه: تغییر اقلیم و آسیب­پذیری ناشی از آن بویژه در کشورهای درحال­توسعه مورد تأکید قرار گرفته است. این پدیده در مورد ایران با توجه به شرایط اقلیمی آن می­تواند زمینه آسیب­پذیری بیش‌تری را فرآهم کند. در مورد ایران تنوع بالای استان­ها و تفاوت در مقدار برخورداری از امکان مقابله با پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم نیازمند ارزیابی بیش‌تر می­باشد.
هدف: این مطالعه با هدف سنجش آسیب­پذیری استان­های ایران و ارزیابی مقدار آمادگی آن­ها برای مقابله با آسیب­ها صورت گرفت.
مواد و روش‌ها: سنجش آسیب­پذیری از راه محاسبه سه بعد شامل مواجهه، حساسیت و ظرفیت تطبیقی و با استفاده از دو روش وزن­دهی ساده و فازی انجام شد. برای هر یک از ابعاد، متغیرهای متعددی بکار گرفته شد. هم‌چنین، از تفاضل شاخص آسیب­پذیری و شاخص آمادگی، نمره نهایی یا شاخص سازگاری محاسبه شد. برای محاسبه شاخص­ها از آخرین داده­های موجود استفاده شد.
یافته‌ها: بر اساس یافته­ها مشخص شد تمام استان­ها آسیب­پذیر هستند و از نگاه آسیب­پذیری تفاوت زیادی میان آن­ها مشاهده نمی­شود، اما از نظر آمادگی تفاوتی بیش‌تر مشاهده می­شود. استان­های بوشهر، چهارمحال­وبختیاری و البرز با مقدار شاخص 65/0-55/0 بیش‌ترین آسیب­پذیری را نشان دادند و استان­های ایلام، قزوین و اصفهان با مقدار عددی 45/0-35/0 دارای کم‌ترین آسیب­پذیری ارزیابی شدند. بر اساس مقادیر بدست­آمده از روش فازی، شاخص آمادگی تهران حدود 84/0 بدست آمد در حالی­که این رقم برای سایر استان­ها کم‌تر از 45/0 می­باشد. هم‌چنین، مقدار نمره نهایی یا شاخص سازگاری برای تهران 65/0 بدست­ آمد و استان­های سمنان، قزوین و اصفهان با مقدار شاخص 48/0-45/0 در رتبه های بعد قرار گرفتند. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

تغییر اقلیم؛ آسیب‌پذیری؛ آمادگی؛ سازگاری

عنوان مقاله [English]

Measuring the Iranian Provinces’ Vulnerability to Climate Change

نویسندگان [English]

Fatemeh Asakereh¹؛ Zakariya Farajzadeh²

¹M.Sc. Graduate of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Iran.

²Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Introduction: Climate change and the resulting vulnerability has been emphasized in developing nations increasingly. Regarding the vulnerable situation of Iran, this phenomenon may cause more adverse effects. There is a great divergence among the Iranian provinces in terms of their ability and capability to cope with the climate change effects, needing for more deeply investigation.
Aim: The objective of this study is to measure the vulnerability of the Iranian provinces and to examine their readiness to cope with the damages.
Materials and Methods: Vulnerability measurement includes measuring three components of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Different variables were used to measure these components. The compatibility index was measured by subtracting the vulnerability score from the readiness score for each province. The most recent data was applied to calculate the indices.
Findings: The results showed that all provinces, to some extent, are vulnerable to climate change and there is an insignificant difference among them in terms of vulnerability; however, they may be clearly distinguished in terms of their readiness. Boushehr, Charmahal and Bakhtiari and Alborz were found to be more vulnerable with scores ranging from 0.55 to 0.65 while Ilam, Isfahan and Qazvin with scores of 0.35-0.45 were classified as provinces with lowest vulnerability. Based on the readiness scores, Tehran ranked as the first one with score of 0.84 while the corresponding value for other provinces were obtained less than 0.45. The final score or compatibility index of Tehran was obtained 0.65 followed by Semnan, Qazvin and Isfahan with corresponding values of 0.45-0.48. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Climate Change, Vulnerability, Readiness, Compatibility

مراجع

1- Abdelzaher DM, Martynov A, Abdelzaher AM. Vulnerability to climate change: Are innovative countries in a better position?. Research in International Business and Finance, 2020, 51: 101098.

2- Adger WN, Brooks N, Bentham G, Agnew M. Eriksen S. New indicators of vulnerability and adaptive capacity. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. 2004.

3- Alizadeh Choobari O, Najafi MS. Trends and changes in air temperature and precipitation over different regions of Iran. Journal of the Earth and Space Physics, 2016, 43(3): 569-584. (In Farsi)

4- Barani N, Karami A. Annual trend analysis of climate parameters of temperature and precipitation in decuple agroecology regions of Iran. Environmental Sciences, 2019, 17(4): 75-90. (In Farsi)

5- Berenger V, Verdier-Chouchane A. Multidimensional measures of well-being: Standard of living quality of life across countries. World Development, 2007, 35(7): 1259-1276.

6- Blauhut V, Stahl K, Kohn I. The dynamics of vulnerability to drought in Europe, Research and Science-Policy Interfacing, Andreu et al., (Eds), Chapter, Taylor & Francis Group, London. 2015.

7- Brant S. Assessing the vulnerability to drought in Ceara, Northeast Brazil.  Retrieved from: 2007, https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/handle/2027.42/57432.

8- Busby JW, Cook KH, Vizy EK, Smith TG, Bekalo M. Identifying hot spots of security vulnerability associated with climate change in Africa. Climate Change, 2014, 124 (4): 717–731.

9- Central Bank of Iran, Available at: 2016, http://tsd.cbi.ir/Display/Content.aspx.

10- Cerioli A, Zani S. A fuzzy approach to the measurement of poverty. In Income and wealth distribution, inequality and poverty (pp. 272-284). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. 1990.

11- Changnon SA, Kunkel KE, Pielke JR, Changnon SA. Temporal fluctuations in weather and climate extremes that cause economic and human health impacts: A review. Bulletin of American Meteorological Society, 1999, 80: 1077-1098.

12- Chen C, Noble I, Hellmann J, Coffee J, Murillo M, Chawla N. University of Notre Dame Global Adaptation Index Country Index Technical Report. Retrieved from: 2015,https://gain.nd.edu/assets/254377/nd_gain_technical_document_2015.pdf.

13- Chiappero Martinetti E. Standard of living evaluation based on Sen’s Approach: Some methodological suggestions. Notizie di Politeia, 1996, 12(43/44): 37–53.

14- Downing TE, Butterfield R, Cohen S, Huq S, Moss R, Rahman A, Sokona Y, Stephen L. Vulnerability indices: Climate change impacts and adaptation. United Nations Environment Program, Policy Series 3. New York: United Nations. 2001.

15- Ekrami M, Fathimarj A, Barkhordari J. Assessment agricultural drought vulnerability in arid and s-arid climates using GIS and AHP, A case study for Taft Township, Yazd province, Iran. Journal of Irrigation and Water Engineering, 2015, 20: 107-117. (In Farsi)

16- Eshetu F, Guye A. Determinants of rural households’ vulnerability to food insecurity in Gamo Gofa Zone, Southern Ethiopia. Retrieved from: 2020, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340990952_Determinants_of_Rural_Households'_Vulnerability_to_Food_Insecurity_in_Gamo_Gofa_Zone_Southern_Ethiopia.

17- Hosseini M, Sharifzadeh A. A narrative of the vulnerability of rural and nomadic communities as a result of drought crisis in Kerman province. National Conference on Sustainable Rural Development, Kermanshah, 2009, 1-23. (In Farsi)

18- IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), Fifth Assessment Report - Impacts, Adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press, London. 2014.

19- IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), Fifth Assessment Report - Impacts, Adaptation and vulnerability. Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, Cambridge University Press.

Iranian Meteorological Organization. (2016). 2014. <http://www.irimo.ir/eng/index.php>

20- Johnson RA, Wichern DW. Applied Multivariate Statistical Analysis. 6^th Ed. New Jersey. Pearson Prentice Hall. 2012.

21- Kemfert C. Climate Protection Requirements–the Economic Impact of Climate Change. In Handbook Utility Management Springer, Berlin: Heidelberg. 2008, 725-739.

22- Kovats RS, Valentini R, Bouwer LM. Europe. In: Barros, V.R., Field, C.B., Dokken, D.J. (Eds.), Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2014, pp. 1267–1326.

23- Mahboobi M, Shamkouiyan S, Abdollazadeh G. Measurement the farmer’s vulnerability and readiness for facing with drought conditions, Case: Kashmar County. Geographic Space, 2018, 62: 171-190. (In Farsi)

24- Malakootikhah Z, Farajzadeh Z. The effect of climate change on economic growth in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 2020, 34(2): 223-238

25- Mander WJ. Dictionary of global climatic change. 2nd Revised Ed. London: VCL Press. 1994.

26- Mohammadkhani M, Jamali S. Iran’s vulnerability assessment to climate change. Dam and Hydroelectric Power Plant, 2015, 2(4): 54-65. (In Farsi)

27- Momeni S, Zibaei M. The potential impacts of climate change on the agricultural sector of Fars province. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 2013, 27(3): 169-179. (In Farsi)

28- Monterroso-Rivas AI, Conde-Álvarez AC, Pérez-Damian JL, López-Blanco J, Gaytan-Dimas M, Gómez-Díaz JD. Multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability to climate change: Insights from the agricultural sector in Mexico. Climatic Change, 2018, 147(3-4), 457-473.

29- Nardo M, Saisana M. Saltelli A. Handbook on Constructing Composite Indicators: Methodology and User Guide. Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. 2008.

30- Nasrnia F, Zibaei M. Determination farmers' vulnerability patterns to drought in Iran: case study of Bakhtaran basin. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research, 2017, 34:1-37. (In Farsi)

31- Nasrnia F, Zibaei M, Bakhshoodeh M. Vulnerability of farmers in Bakhtaran basin before and after drought: econometric approach. Agricultural Economics, 2017, 12(3): 47-71. (In Farsi)

32- Neset TS, Wiréhn L, Opach T, Glaas E, Linnér BO. Evaluation of indicators for agricultural vulnerability to climate change: The case of Swedish agriculture. Ecological Indicators, 2019, 105, 571-580.

33- Pytric R, Frank E, Alfons OL, Rik L. Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: The importance of farm level responses. European Journal of Agronomy, 2010, 32: 91-102.

34- Reidsma P, Ewert F, Lansink AO, Leemans R. Adaptation to climate change and climate variability in European agriculture: The importance of farm level responses. European Journal of Agronomy, 2010, 32(1), 91-102.

35- Sarkodie SA, Strezov V. Economic, social and governance adaptation readiness for mitigation of climate change vulnerability: Evidence from 192 countries. Science of the Total Environment, 2019, 656: 150-164.

36- SPSS Inc. SPSS 11.0 Guid to Data Analysis, Prentice Hall, NJ. 2002.

37- Statistical Center of Iran, Available at: 2013, https://www.amar.org.ir.

38- Stern N. The economics of climate change: The Stern review. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK. 2007.

39- Sullivan C, Meigh J. Targeting attention on local vulnerabilities using an integrated index approach: The example of the climate vulnerability index. Water Science and Technology, 2005, 51(5): 69-78.

40- UNFCCC (United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change), Iran (Islamic Republic of): Intended Nationally Determined Contribution. Available at: 2015, http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/indc/Submission%20Pages/submissions.aspx