رهیافت آینده‌نگاری در برنامه‌ریزی توسعه مناطق (نمونه موردی: استان یزد)

فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

دوره 14، شماره 54، شهریور 1403، صفحه 93-110   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jzpm.2023.30496.4110

نویسندگان

محدثه بشیرمشهدی¹؛ رضا اکبری^{* 2}؛ حمید محمدی³

¹دانشجوی دکتری حکمرانی اقتصادی دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

²استادیار گروه شهرسازی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران.

³عضو هیئت علمی مرکز پژوهشهای توسعه و آیندهنگری، تهران، ایران

تاریخ دریافت: 03 خرداد 1401،  تاریخ بازنگری: 14 اسفند 1401،  تاریخ پذیرش: 14 اسفند 1401 

چکیده

در جهانی که پیچیدگی روز افزون پیش‌بینی و برنامه‌ریزی را پیش‌رو داریم آینده‌نگاری فرایندی نظام‌مند و مشارکتی است. عدم قطعیت‌های ناشی از پیچیدگی‌های عملکردی - ساختاری استان‌ها، پرداختن به آینده‌های بلند مدت را بسیار دشوار کرده است. در این میان سناریو‌نگاری در مدیریت و برنامه‌ریزی رواج پیدا کرده است که کاربردی ساختن آن یک دغدغه مهم و کلیدی به شمار می‌رود. بنابراین با توجه به روندها، رویدادها، اقدامات، عوامل کلیدی، پیشران‌ها و مهم‌تر از همه عدم قطعیت‌ها برنامه‌ریزی می‌شود و به‌دنبال آرمان‌ها، آرزوها، اهداف، استراتژی‌ها از طریق مثلث آینده‌پژوهی (کشش آینده، فشار حال و وزن گذشته) است. در آینده نگاری، برنامه‌ریز در زمان آینده ایستاده‌است و به حل نارسایی‌ها در زمان حال برای رسیدن به چنین آینده‌ای می‌اندیشد. با توجه به اهمیت آینده‌نگاری و تأثیرات آن بر برنامه‌های کلان کشورها، موفقیت و کارآمدی فرایندهای آینده‌نگاری همواره از دغدغه‌های دست‌اندرکاران مدیریت کشورها بوده و است. این پژوهش از نظر هدف کاربردی-توسعه‌ای است. در این مقاله با استفاده از مطالعات کتابخانه‌ای و مصاحبه با خبرگان فهرستی از قوت‌ها، فرصت‌ها، ضعف‌ها و تهدیدها جمع آوری شد. سپس از وضع موجود، اسناد فرادست و سنجش وضعیت روندها و کلان روندهای استان یزد بدست آمده‌است. سپس با تحلیل پرسشنامه میزان اهمیت و عدم قطعیت پیشران‌ها به کمک نرم‌افزارهای آینده‌پژوهی نظیر MicMac، سناریوویزارد و FCM به تدوین سناریو پرداخته شد که شامل 8 سناریو است. بدین ترتیب عناصر اصلی توسعه منطقه‌ای استان یزد اعم از پیشران‌های دارای عدم قطعیت و اهمیت بالا، عوامل کلیدی و از پیش معین، سناریوها، راهبردها، سیاست‌ها و برنامه اقدام مشخص‌شده و نحوه اثرگذاری و اثرپذیری پیشران‌ها تحلیل و تبیین شد. در نتیجه پیشنهاد کلی این پژوهش را می‌توان هوشمندسازی منطقه‌ای استان یزد با شش محرک اصلی «اقتصاد هوشمند، افراد باهوش، حکمرانی هوشمند، تحرک هوشمند، محیط هوشمند و زندگی هوشمند» که پوشش‌دهنده تمامی راهبردها، سیاست‌ها و برنامه‌های اقدام مطرح شده دانست.

کلیدواژه‌ها

برنامه‌ریزی منطقه‌ای؛ توسعه منطقه‌ای؛ رویکرد آینده‌نگاری؛ استان یزد

عنوان مقاله [English]

Futuristic approach in regional development planning (Case study: Yazd province)

نویسندگان [English]

mohadese Bashir Mashhadi¹؛ Reza Akbari²؛ Hamid Mohammadi³

¹PhD student of Economic Governance, Tehran University, Tehran, Iran.

²Assistant Professor of Urban Planning, Yazd University, Yazd, Iran.

³Faculty member of the Center for Development and Foresight Research, Tehran, Iran.

چکیده [English]

In a world of increasing complexity of forecasting and planning, foresight is a systematic and participatory process. Uncerta inties due to the functional-structural complexities of the provinces have made it very difficult to address the long-term future. In the meantime, scenario writing has become popular in management and planning, the application of which is an important and key concern. Therefore, according to trends, events, actions, key factors, drivers and most importantly, uncertainties are planned and we seek ideals, aspirations, goals, strategies through the future research triangle (future traction, present pressure and past weight). In futurism, we stand in the future and think about solving the shortcomings of the present to achieve such a future. Given the importance of foresight and its effects on the macro-plans of countries, the success and efficiency of foresight processes has always been a concern of the management of countries. This research is applied-developmental in terms of purpose. In this article, a list of strengths, opportunities, weaknesses and threats was compiled using library studies and interviews with experts. Then, from the current situation, superior documents and assessment of the status of trends and macro trends in Yazd province have been obtained. According to these cases, a scenario was developed that includes 8 scenarios. Thus, the main elements of regional development in Yazd province, including drivers with high uncertainty and importance, key and predetermined factors, scenarios, strategies, policies and action plans were identified and how the drivers are affected and analyzed. The general proposal of this study is to make the regions of Yazd province smart with six main drivers: "smart economy, smart people, smart governance, smart mobility, smart environment and smart life" that cover all strategies, policies and action plans.
Extended Abstract
 
Introduction
The history of thinking about the future goes back to the history of human creation. But what is important today is that in all aspects of life, the rate of future exploration and prediction of events is increasing, and more importantly, the future is not predetermined and human actions can affect the course of his future (Ratcliffe,2002).
Futuristic thinking can be described as "a need, a choice and a way of thinking." This thinking responds to the need to be prepared for future changes and to face uncertainties, especially in the present age when changes are large, rapid, and interrelated (Masini,1993:2).
Future research in the region, focusing on a specific territorial area, is implemented in a sub-national geographical area with the aim of making certain decisions in order to achieve the desired future.
Uncertainties due to the functional-structural complexities of the provinces have made it very difficult to address the long-term future. In the meantime, scenario writing has become popular in management and planning, the application of which is an important and key concern. Therefore, according to trends, events, actions, key factors, drivers and most importantly, uncertainties are planned and we seek ideals, aspirations, goals, strategies through the future research triangle (future traction, present pressure and past weight).
 
Methodology
According to its objectives, this study seeks to study the indicators of regional development and provide the main and sustainable strategies based on the most important drivers and uncertainties in order to achieve regional development planning, so it is applied-developmental in terms of purpose.
 
Results and Discussion
Trying to achieve a better future and designing and explaining the characteristics and positioning of a society that present and future generations can consciously and self-reliantly take the path to achieve it, is not only a requirement of the dynamism and hope of the people of this land but also the approach And makes the behavior of the government and the executive apparatus purposeful and meaningful within it.
The research is done in eleven steps, which include the following:
Step 1: Exploratory studies: An overview of the study area
Step 2: Measuring the current situation: Measuring, measuring and studying the internal and external environment of the region
Step 3: Develop a vision
Step 4: Identify trends and macro trends
Step 5: Identify the key factors and drivers
Step 6: Identify the importance and uncertainty of the propellants
Step 7: Select the main drivers
Step 8: Develop a scenario
Step 9: Write the logic of the scenarios
Step 10: Provide strategies
Step 11: Test the Stability of Strategies
And creates eight scenarios with different stories and situations for Yazd province.
 
Conclusion
The main elements of regional development in Yazd province, including impulses of high uncertainty and importance, key and predetermined factors, scenarios, strategies, policies and action plans were identified and how effective and effective propellants were analyzed and explained. Based on the findings of this study, in order to achieve regional development in Yazd province, there are 8 sustainable strategies that are "development and provision of information and communication technology infrastructure to play the role of communication center based on ICT development approach", "Development of knowledge-based economy for productivity" The advantages of communication technology "and" completion and improvement of technology ecosystem in the province in order to retain and attract scientific and technological elites "have the highest score and priority, so the general proposal of this study "Intelligent governance, smart mobility, smart environment, smart environment and smart life" that covers all strategies, policies and action plans.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Regional planning, regional development, futuristic approach, Yazd province

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