تاثیر تغییر اقلیم بر کاربری اراضی و پوشش گیاهی استان فارس: کاربرد روش سیستم پویا

فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

دوره 15، شماره 3، آبان 1402، صفحه 56-69   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jae.2023.28473.2263

نویسندگان

صدف بهمن پوری^{* 1}؛ محمد بخشوده²؛ منصور زیبایی²

¹دانش آموخته مقطع دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

²استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران

تاریخ دریافت: 26 تیر 1400،  تاریخ بازنگری: 20 مرداد 1400،  تاریخ پذیرش: 29 شهریور 1402 

چکیده

مقدمه و هدف: تغییرات اقلیمی که در سال‌های اخیر در استان فارس رخ داده است، به‌عنوان یکی از مهمترین چالش‌های محیط‌زیستی در این منطقه شناخته شده است. این تغییرات اقلیمی، تاثیرات قابل توجهی بر کاربری اراضی و پوشش گیاهی این منطقه داشته است. با توجه به این موضوع، استفاده از روش‌های سیستمی برای مدیریت کاربری اراضی و پوشش گیاهی بسیار مفید است.
مواد و روش­ها: در این مطالعه با بکارگیری روش سیستم‌ پویا، رفتار سیستم کاربری اراضی و پوشش گیاهی استان فارس شبیه‌سازی و عکس‌العمل آن نسبت به تغییرات مختلف اقلیم در طول دوره 1430-1400 بررسی شد.
یافته­ها: نتایج در طول دوره شبیه‌سازی نشان می‌دهد که مساحت کاربری‌های مسکونی و مناطق بدون استفاده در بازه زمانی 30 ساله روند صعودی خواهد داشت. در مقابل اراضی کشاورزی، پوشش جنگلی، مرتعی و مناطق آبی نیز روند نزولی تغییرات مساحت را داشته است و با گذشت زمان مساحت آن‌ها کاهش می‌یابد.
بحث و نتیجه­گیری: مطمئناٌ با شرایط فعلی که با کاهش نزولات آسمانی و منابع آب زیر‌زمینی همراه بوده‌ایم در آینده‌ای نزدیک با بحران آب زراعی روبرو خواهیم بود و موفقیت از آن کشورهایی خواهد شد که این مایه حیاتی را در اختیار داشته و آن را به خوبی حفظ کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

سیستم پویا؛ کاربری اراضی و پوشش گیاهی؛ تغییرات اقلیمی؛ استان فارس

عنوان مقاله [English]

Effect of Climate Change on Land Use and Land Cover in Fars Province: Application of System Dynamics Approach

نویسندگان [English]

Sadaf bahmanpouri¹؛ Mohammad Bakhshoodeh²؛ Mansoor Zibaei²

¹Ph.D. Economics of Natural Resoureces and Environment, Shiraz University

²Professor of Agricultural Economics, Shiraz University

چکیده [English]

In this study, we used a system dynamic systemic approach, as a useful tool for analyzing the relationships between all components of a complex system, to study the behavior of the land use and land cover system in Fars Province. Dynamic simulation allows observing the behavior modeling and reaction of a system to various changes over time. The behaviors of key variables (land use and land covers area) were simulated based on the defined scenarios after calibrating the model. The results showed that during the simulation period, the areas of agricultural, urban and unused lands are expected to be uptrend, over a period of 40 years. In contrast, forest cover, rangeland and water areas have had a downward trend in area changes. Thus, standing with the phenomena such as desertification, reduction of land cover and water resources requires proper management and careful planning to use the correct methods of water resources exploitation, avoiding the indiscriminate conversion of natural resource areas into industrial and urban units, restoration of aquatic ecosystems and desertification monitoring systems.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

System Dynamics, Land Use and Land Cover, Climate Change, Fars Province

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