شناسایی پیشران‌های کلیدی در توسعه اقتصادی منطقه‌ای سواحل اقیانوسی ایران

فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

دوره 13، شماره 51، آذر 1402، صفحه 19-36   

نوع مقاله: مقاله های برگرفته از پایان نامه

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jzpm.2022.30270.4087

نویسندگان

علی حسینی^{* 1}؛ سید عباس احمدی²؛ محمد میره ای³؛ راضیه سادات مجیدی⁴

¹دانشیار جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، گروه جغرافیای انسانی و برنامه‌ریزی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

²دانشیار جغرافیای سیاسی، گروه جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

³دانشیار جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشکده مدیریت و حسابداری، دانشکدگان فارابی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

⁴دکترای جغرافیای سیاسی، گروه جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

تاریخ دریافت: 23 فروردین 1401،  تاریخ بازنگری: 23 تیر 1401،  تاریخ پذیرش: 24 تیر 1401 

چکیده

برنامه‌ریزی توسعه منطقه‌ای، توسط برنامه‌ریزان و سیاستگذاران برای سرزمین‌ها و مناطق گوناگون طی دهه‌های گذشته به‌منظور کاهش فاصله بین مناطق یک سرزمین بیش از پیش مورد استقبال قرار گرفته‌است طوری‌که درحال‌حاضر سازمان‌ها، نهادها و برنامه‌ریزان در جستجوی راه‌حل‌هایی جهت خروج از عدم‌ توسعه‌یافتگی مناطق می‌باشند. از طرفی جهانی که در آن زندگی می‌کنیم، جهانی پویاست. بنابراین از آنجا که رفتار و برنامه‌های انسانی پیامدهای پویایی جهان را رقم می‌زند شایسته است که انسان نسبت به این رفتارها، برنامه‌ها و پویایی جهان پیرامون خود آگاهی داشته باشد و براساس این دانش و آگاهی، بهترین اقدامات را جهت ایجاد آینده‌ای روشن و دلخواه انجام دهد. بنابر آنچه گفته شد، این پژوهش به دنبال شناسایی پیشران‌های کلیدی در توسعه اقتصادی منطقه‌ای سواحل اقیانوسی ایران می‌باشد. باتوجه به اهمیت و پویایی نقش سواحل در توسعه منطقه‌ای، در این پژوهش ابتدا با استفاده از روش کتابخانه‌ای به استخراج متغیرهای اثرگذار در این زمینه پرداخته‌شد و سپس باتوجه به نظر خبرگان در این زمینه، از بین متغیرهای شناسایی شده تعداد 54 متغیر مهم، در ابعاد اقتصادی، اجتماعی-فرهنگی، کالبدی، مدیریتی و زیست محیطی استخراج شد. سپس با استفاده از تکنیک آینده‌پژوهی میک مک از بین آن‌ها، به شناسایی پیشران‌های کلیدی توسعه اقتصادی مناطقه‌ای سواحل اقیانوسی ایران پرداخته شد. درنهایت شاخص‌های شناسایی شده در این پژوهش، در ابعاد مذکور، مورد ارزیابی قرارگرفتند و سرانجام  هشت شاخص شامل: سیاست‌های کلان دولت، رفاه و امنیت اجتماعی، گردشگری و بوم‌گردی، بازرگانی و تجارت، شبکة حمل‌ونقل منطقه‌ای، اشتغال‌زایی، میزان درآمد مردم و تورم  به‌عنوان پیشران‌های کلیدی و اثرگذار در توسعه اقتصاد منطقه‌ای، در سواحل اقیانوسی ایران معرفی شدند.

باتوجه به اهمیت و پویایی نقش سواحل در توسعه منطقه‌ای، در این پژوهش ابتدا با استفاده از روش کتابخانه‌ای به استخراج متغیرهای اثرگذار در این زمینه پرداخته‌شد و سپس باتوجه به نظر 30 نفر از خبرگان در این زمینه، از بین متغیرهای شناسایی شده تعداد 54 متغیر مهم، در ابعاد اقتصادی، اجتماعی-فرهنگی، کالبدی، مدیریتی و زیست محیطی استخراج شد. سپس با استفاده از تکنیک آینده‌پژوهی میک‌مک از بین آن‌ها، به شناسایی پیشران‌های کلیدی توسعه اقتصادی مناطقه‌ای سواحل اقیانوسی ایران پرداخته شد.
درنهایت شاخص‌های شناسایی شده در این پژوهش، در ابعاد مذکور، مورد ارزیابی قرارگرفتند و سرانجام هشت شاخص شامل: سیاست‌های کلان دولت X49، رفاه و امنیت اجتماعی X22 ، گردشگری و بوم‌گردی X13، بازرگانی و تجارت X8، شبکة حمل‌ونقل منطقه‌ای X45، اشتغال‌زایی X2 ، میزان درآمد مردم X1 و تورم X15 به‌عنوان پیشران‌های کلیدی و اثرگذار در توسعه اقتصاد منطقه‌ای، در سواحل اقیانوسی ایران معرفی شدند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

توسعه اقتصادی منطقه‌ای؛ نابرابری منطقه‌ای؛ برنامه‌ریزی منطقه‌ای؛ آینده‌پژوهی

عنوان مقاله [English]

dentification of key drivers in regional economic development of Iran's ocean coasts

نویسندگان [English]

Ali Hosseini¹؛ Seyed abbas ahmadi²؛ Mohammad Mirehei³؛ Raziyeh Majidi⁴

¹Associate Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Department of Human Geography and Planning, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

²Associate Professor of Political Geography, Department of Political Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

³Associate Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Farabi Campus, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

⁴Ph.D. of Political Geography, Department of Political Geography, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

چکیده [English]

Regional development planning has been welcomed by planners and policy makers for different territories and regions during the past decades in order to reduce the distance between the regions of a territory, so that currently organizations, institutions and planners are looking for solutions to get out of the lack of development of regions. On the other hand, the world we live in is a dynamic world. Therefore, since human behavior and plans determine the consequences of the dynamics of the world, it is appropriate for humans to be aware of these behaviors, plans, and the dynamics of the world around them, and based on this knowledge and awareness, take the best actions to create a bright and desirable future. . According to what was said, this research seeks to identify the key propellants in the regional economic development of the oceanic coasts of Iran. Considering the importance and dynamics of the role of beaches in regional development, in this research, first, using the library method, the effective variables were extracted in this field, and then according to the opinion of 30 experts in this field, among the identified variables, 54 important variables were identified. Variables was extracted in economic, socio-cultural, physical, managerial and environmental dimensions. Then, using the MIC MAC future research technique, among them, the key propellants of the economic development of the regions of the oceanic coasts of Iran were identified. Finally, the indicators identified in this research were evaluated in the mentioned dimensions, and finally eight indicators include: macro government policies, welfare and social security, tourism and ecotourism, commerce and trade, regional transportation network, employment generation, people's income and inflation were introduced as key and effective propellants in the development of the regional economy in the ocean coast of Iran.
Extended Abstract
 
Introduction
Forecasting the future has always been an interesting and significant topic for mankind, which has been pursued with various approaches over time. On the other hand, the world we live in is a dynamic world, and as time passes, this dynamism and transformation increases due to the increase of human knowledge. In fact, this dynamic take place due to human actions, and it is the human being who is the most important factor in the dynamics of today's world by communicating more and more complexly over time. Therefore, since human behavior and plans determine the consequences of the dynamics of the world, it is appropriate for humans to be aware of these behaviors, plans, and the dynamics of the world around them, and based on this knowledge, take the best actions to create a bright and desirable future.
One of the things that require planned actions due to the dynamics of the world around us are regions. Addressing the region and regional development is not a new phenomenon, but recent approaches to this issue are very important. Regional development planning has been welcomed more and more by planners and policy makers for different territories and regions during the past decades in order to reduce the distance between the regions of a territory, so that currently organizations, institutions and planners are looking for solutions to get out of the lack of development of regions. Also, coastal areas are dynamic areas that have played a significant role in the development of knowledge, trade, culture, etc. Today, the coasts are considered special areas with various natural and human functions in the world, which connect the vital arteries of different lands and countries with each other. The formation of coastal settlements and ports is the starting point of connecting lands and regions to the vital arteries of various societies, which itself creates countless opportunities for coastal regions. Using these opportunities and becoming aware of territorial and regional capabilities will bring a wide range of economic growth and development to the discussed areas.
Considering the importance and dynamics of the role of the coasts in regional development, this research aims to identify the key drivers that are effective in the regional economic development of the oceanic coasts of Iran. Therefore, first, using the library method, the influential variables were extracted in this field, and then, using the opinion of experts, among the identified variables, the number of 54 variables in economic, socio-cultural, physical, managerial, and environmental dimensions, using elite measurement and the application of elite opinion and have been evaluated using the MIC MAC interaction matrix.
Methodology
In terms of its nature, the present research is a descriptive-analytical research, and in terms of its purpose, it is considered one of the applied and problem-solving researches. In this research, two library-documentary and field methods have been used in the research process. This research has a statistical population of 30 experts from Ports and Maritime Organization and university professors who were selected using the snowball method. In qualitative-quantitative researches, it is appropriate to choose the purposeful and non-probability sampling method due to obtaining the most and correct information. This type of sampling does not seek to establish fixed rules, but tries to better understand the phenomena in a special field. Therefore, the direct and indirect effects of these variables were investigated by using elitism and applying the opinions of elites in the matrix of mutual effects.
The structural analysis method is a form of cross-effect analysis that is performed using MIC MAC software. This method is one of the most common future research methods. The method of structural analysis seeks to identify key variables (overt or hidden) in order to get the opinions of participants and stakeholders about the complex and unpredictable aspects and behaviors of a system. The ability of this model is to identify relationships between variables and finally to identify key variables that are effective in the evolution of the system. In general, structural analysis is done in three stages: first stage: extraction of variables, second stage: determination of relationships between variables, third stage: identification of key variables.
In the MIC MAC method, to carry out the research steps, first a list of key variables is provided, which can be derived from the opinions of experts or other sources. Then, according to the number of key variables, n*n matrix houses of influencing variables are scored. This matrix is called the matrix of direct effects ij representing the degree of influence, and in it each term m is variable i on variable j and its value can be 1, 2, 3 or 4 (P) depending on the degree of influence. In this method, the number 1 indicates weak effects, 2 indicates moderate effects, and 3 indicates severe or strong effects. The number 4 indicates that according to the experts and experts participating in the research, the effect of two variables on each other is possible, in the sense that there may or may not be influence or influence.
Results and Discussion
In the next step, by analyzing the mentioned variables, the direct and indirect influence of these factors on each other and finally on the regional economic development of the ocean coasts of Iran was determined. After the system is evaluated and measured and its instability is determined, by determining the direct and indirect effects of the variables, the degree of these effects is ranked in order to further extract the key propellants. Among 54 indicators in various dimensions, 8 indicators were selected as key propellants affecting the future trend of the system. It should be noted that the key propellants are the variables that are located above the diagonal line of the northeastern region of the system. These variables, which are called as risk variables, have a very high ability to become the main and key players in the system. After collecting a list of the most important factors and key propellants affecting the regional economic development of Iran's ocean coasts, one can imagine the possible situation of these factors. In fact, these propellants are strategies to guide planners and decision makers.
Conclusion
The propellants of macro-government policies, welfare and social security, tourism and ecology, commerce and trade, regional transportation network, job creation, people's income, and inflation as key and effective propellants in the development of the regional economy, in the coasts Oceania of Iran were introduced. Various situations facing these key factors can be imagined, which are of great importance in the future planning of Iran's ocean coasts. Recognizing these propellants and then regional planning based on it can imply the regional economic development of Iran's ocean coasts. In fact, using these opportunities and becoming aware of territorial and regional capabilities will bring a wide range of economic growth and development to the discussed areas.
Considering the importance and dynamics of the role of beaches in regional development, in this research, first, using the library method, the effective variables were extracted in this field, and then according to the opinion of 30 experts in this field, among the identified variables, 54 important variables were identified. , was extracted in economic, socio-cultural, physical, managerial and environmental dimensions. Then, using the Mi'kmaq future research technique, among them, the key propellants of the economic development of the regions of the oceanic coasts of Iran were identified.
Finally, the indicators identified in this research were evaluated in the mentioned dimensions, and finally eight indicators include: macro government policies X49, welfare and social security X22, tourism and ecotourism X13, commerce and trade X8, regional transportation network X45, employment generation X2, People's income X1 and inflation X15 were introduced as key and effective propellants in the development of the regional economy in the ocean coast of Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Regional Economic, Development, Regional Inequality, Regional Planning, Future Research

مراجع

• Ahmadi, S. A., Hosseini, A., Mirehei, M., & Majidi, R. S. (2022). Formulating Regional Development Strategies for Iran's Ocean Coasts. Program and Development Research, 3(3), 7-35. [In Persian]
• Ahmadi, S., & Kavandi, A. (2016). Indian Ocean and the Necessities of Upgrading Makran Coasts. Conference on Processing Geopolitical Potentials for Development in the Southeast Oceans, Ministry of Interior, October 2016. [In Persian]
• Apostolache, M. A. (2014). Regional Development in Romania–From Regulations to Practice. Procedia Economics and Finance, 8, 35-41. DOI:10.1016/S2212-5671(14)00059-8
• Bayat, H., & Hatami, I. (2012). Investigating the effective factors in the underdevelopment of Makran coast. The first national conference on the development of Makran coast and maritime authority of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Chabahar University of Maritime and Marine Sciences, Article code 1012. [In Persian]
• Calero, C. (2020). Regional economic development and tourism: A literature review to highlight future directions for regional tourism research. Tourism Economics, 26(1), 3–26.
• Chen, L., Ye, W., Congjia, H., & Kieran, J. (2020). Environmental Regulations, the Industrial Structure, and High-Quality Regional Economic Development: Evidence from China. Land, 9, 517.
• Chen, X., Jones, C., & Munday, M. (2019). Tourism inward investment and regional economic development effects: perspectives from tourism satellite accounts. Regional Studies, 1226-1237.
• Cheng, H., & Bei, W. (2019). Multiplier Effect of Science and Technology Innovation in Regional Economic Development: Based on Panel Data of Coastal Cities. Journal of Coastal Research, 94(1), 883-890.
• Curtis, W. R. (2010). Intersections of Strategic Planning and Futures Studies: Methodological Complementarities. Journal of Futures Studies, 15(2), 71-100.
• Daryabari, S. J., et al. (2017). Land use planning and development of Makran beaches with emphasis on locating and constructing transportation networks in order to improve the geopolitical and geoeconomic position of the region. Quarterly Journal of New Attitudes in Human Geography, 10, 79. [In Persian]
• Dehghan Shabani, Z., Ebrahim, H., & Jamal, N. (2020). Analysis of the Relationship between Regional Inequality and Economic Development in Iran: Spatial Panel Data Approach. Economic Research, 54(4), 890-875. [In Persian]
• Eversole, R. (2017). Economies with People in Them: Regional Futures Through the Lens of Contemporary Regional Development Theory. Australasian Journal of Regional Studies, 23(3), 305-320.
• Falsoleiman, M., & Hajjipour, M. (2014). Strategic planning of economic sectors in the direction of regional development using SWAT model. Quarterly Journal of Housing and Rural Environment, 150, 100-89. [In Persian]
• Fedorov, L. (2002). Regional inequality and regional polarization in Russia, 1990–99. World Development, 30(3), 443-456.
• Fei-fei, G., Cheng-feng, H., & Xiao, L. W. (2019). Strategic analysis on the construction of the new energy corridor China–Pakistan–Iran–Turkey. Energy Reports, 5, 828-841.
• Gavahi, A. (2017). Futurism in Future Research: A Causal Analysis of the Layers of Future Research Challenges in Iran. Management Future Research Quarterly, 28(109), 24-15.
• Ghafarifard, M. (2017). Investigating the policy-making process of development and regional balance during development programs in Iran and presenting basic strategies. Quarterly Journal of Strategic Studies of Public Policy, 9(30), 21-41. [In Persian]
• Hosseini, A., Farhadi, E., Hussaini, F., Pourahmad, A., & Seraj Akbari, N. (2022). Analysis of spatial (in) equality of urban facilities in Tehran: an integration of spatial accessibility. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 24(5), 6527-6555.
• Hosseini, A., Pourahmad, A., Hataminejad, H., & Mallahzadeh, F. (2023). Evaluating the Role of Business Improvement Districts with an Emphasis on the Future Studies Approach; the Case Study of District 6 of Tehran. Urban Economics and Planning, 4(1), 18-32. [In Persian]
• Hosseini, A., Zarei, B., Ahmadi, A., & Rostami, R. (2021). Futures study of regional development with emphasis on employment in the marine economy, A case study of Bushehr province. Geographical Planning of Space, 11(39), 129-152. [In Persian]
• Huang, H., Zhang, W., Chen, M., & He, Y. (2019). Effect of intercity electric multiple unit projects on regional economic development: evidence from a natural experiment in Zhongshan city, China. Heliyon, 5(6), e01849.
• Ishikura, T. (2020). Regional economic effects of transport infrastructure development featuring trade gateway region-asymmetric spatial CGE model approach. Transportation Research Procedia, 48, 1750-1765.
• Juan, Huang; Yong, Jin, (2019), Analysis on the Influence of Local Government Behavior on Regional Economic Development under the Current Fiscal System, International Conference on Arts, Management, Education and Innovation' (ICAMEI 2019), pp 41-45.
• Kalantari, K., & Golamhossein, A. (2012). Spatial Planning and Land Management. Pardis Danesh, 1st Edition. [In Persian]
• Karimi Moghari, Z., & Barati, J. (2016). Determining the level of regional inequality in Iran's provinces: multidimensional composite index analysis. Economic Growth and Development Research Quarterly, 7(26), 49-70.
• Kawachi, I., Subramanian, S. V., & Almeida-Filho, N. (2002). A glossary for health inequalities. Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health, 56(9), 647-652.
• Khashei, R. (2012). Journey to the Future (Future Research, Concepts, Principles and Methods). Media Art Publications, 1st Edition, Tehran. [In Persian]
• Kocziszky, Gyorgy, (2009), Methodology of regional development, University of Miskolc Press.
• Martins, Luis Filip; Gan, Yi; Ferreira-Lopes, Alexsandra, (2017), An empirical analysis of the influence of macroeconomic determinants on World tourism demand, Tourism Management, 61, pp. 248 -260. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2017.01.008
• Molaei, M, M. & Talebian, H. (2016). Futurology of Iranian Issues by Structural Analysis, Journal of Parliament and Strategy, 23(86), 5-32. [In Persian]
• Mora, Toni, (2008), Explaining Within - country Regional Inequality in the European Union, Scienze Regional. No7, pp 51-69.
• Mousavi, Miranjaf; Kahki, Fatemeh Sadat, (2016), Future research in land management (a look at the application of Micmac and Scenario Wizard software), Urmia University Publications. [In Persian]
• Pessoa, Argentino, Economia Faculdade de, (2008), tourism and regional competitiveness: the case of the portuguese douro valley, See discussions, stats, and author profiles for this publication at; Research Gate. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/263182193
• Phdungsilp Aumnad, (2011), Futures studies’ backcasting method used for strategic sustainable city planning, Futures 43, NO 7, PP 707-714. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2011.05.012
• Prandhan, Rudra; Tapan, Bagchi, (2013), Effect of Transportation Infrastructure on Economy Growth in India the VECM approach, Research in Transportation Economics, Volume 38(4), 137-148. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.retrec.2012.05.008
• Roney, Curtis, (2010), Intersections of Strategic Planning and Futures Studies: Methodological Complementarities, Journal of Futures Studies, November 2010, 15(2), pages 71-100.
• Salami, R., Khani, M., & Saffari Darbarzi, A. (2012). Investigating the Impact of Future Research in NAJA Research. Industrial Technology Development Quarterly, 10(19), 88-73. [In Persian]
• Saraii, M. H., Rezaei, M. R., & Safarpour, M. (2019). Investigation and Analysis of Hotels Spatial Distribution to Medical Tourism Attractions: Case Study - Shiraz. Journal of Tourism, Planning and Development, 7(27), 8-25. https://doi.org/10.22080/JTPD.2019.2208 [In Persian]
• Seyed Naghavi, M. A., & Babaei, A. (2013). Evaluation of Rural Economic Development Policies from a Regional Perspective with a Look at Government Policies in Iran. Rural Research, 4(3), 1-4. [In Persian]
• Soares Jr, Jair; Quintella, Rogerio, (2008), Development: an Analysis of Concepts, Measurement and Indicators, BAR, Curitiba, v. 5, n. 2, art. 2, p. 104-124.
• Szabo, Norbert; Farkas, Richard; Varga, Attila, (2021), The economic effects of passenger transport infrastructure investments in lagging regions. Would the increase in commuting be beneficial for regional development? Growth and Change. Pp 1-25. Regional & Urban Planning, Volume 52, Issue 3, September 2021.
• United Nations, (2103), World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013, Global outlook.
• Walsh, stuart; Northey, Stephen; Huston, David; Yellishetty, Mohan; Czarnota, Karol, (2020), Bluecap: A geospatial model to assess regional economic-viability for mineral resorce development resources policy volume 66, june 2020, 101598.
• Winkler, Andreas, (2012), Measuring regional inequality, an index of socio-economic pressure for Serbia, Collection of Papers – Faculty of Geography at University of Belgrade, Research Gate, 60 (81-102).
• Yasouri, M., & Sojoudi, M. (2018). Regional Development Strategy (RDS): A New Strategy for Balanced Regional Development (Case Study: Rasht County). Regional Planning Quarterly, 8(29), 106-93. [In Persian]
• Zali, N. (2020). New Approaches in Regional Planning and Development. University of Guilan Press. [In Persian]
• Zali, N., & Mansouri Birjandi, S. (2015). Analysis of Key Factors Affecting the Development of Sustainable Transportation on the Horizon of 1404, Tehran Metropolis (Structural Analysis Method). Space Planning and Planning, 19(2), 31-1. [In Persian]
• Zarabi, A. T. N. (2011). Determining the Level of Development of Cities in Mazandaran Province: Factor Analysis Approach. Geographical Quarterly of Environmental Management, 4(12), 77-63. [In Persian]
• Zhou, Jin; Raza, Ali; Hongguang, Sui, (2021), Infrastructure investment and economic growth quality: empirical analysis of China’s regional development, Applied Economics, 53(32), P2615-2630.
• Ziari, K., Rabbani, T., & Saedmoucheshi, R. (2022). The Future of New Paradigm Research in Planning with Emphasis on Urban and Regional Planning (Principles, Concepts, Approaches and Methods). University of Tehran Press, Third Edition, Tehran. [In Persian]
•