اثر عضویت در موافقت‌نامه‌های تجاری بر تراز تجاری دوجانبه کشاورزی ایران

فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

دوره 15، شماره 4، بهمن 1402، صفحه 93-107   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jae.2023.28591.2273

نویسندگان

الهام مهرپرور حسینی¹؛ حامد رفیعی^{* 2}؛ زینب رستم زاده³؛ میلاد امینی زاده⁴

¹دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، ایران

²استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، ایران

³دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، ایران

⁴دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، ایران

تاریخ دریافت: 06 مرداد 1400،  تاریخ بازنگری: 22 مهر 1400،  تاریخ پذیرش: 24 دی 1402 

چکیده

مقدمه و هدف: امروزه عضویت کشورها در موافقنامه‌های تجاری با تسهیل تجارت از راه مقررات‌زدایی، برچیدن مرزهای تعرفه‌ای و حمایتی، یکپارچه‌سازی هرچه بیشتر بازارهای ملی و منطقه‌ای و امکان دسترسی به بازارهای مختلف، فضای جدیدی را برای مسیر حرکت اقتصادی کشورهای مختلف گشوده است. اما با وجود تمام مزایای بیان شده برای موافقت‌نامه‌ها در تسهیل شرایط تجارت، وضعیت تعادل تجاری بین کشورها در بخش‌های مختلف اقتصادی در پی عضویت در توافقنامه‌ها روشن نیست.
مواد و روش­ها: از این‌رو، در این مقاله، تأثیر عضویت ایران در موافقتنامه‌های ترجیحات تجاری منطقه‌ای، نظام جهانی ترجیحات تجاری و سازمان همکاری‌های اقتصادی بر تراز تجاری دوجانبه بخش کشاورزی ایران با 45 شریک تجاری اصلی با استفاده از الگوی جاذبه در دوره زمانی 2017-2001 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت.
یافته­ ها: بر اساس نتایج، عضویت ایران در توافقنامه‌های تجاری به طور معنی‌داری موجب تضعیف تراز تجاری کشاورزی ایران شده است. همچنین، متغیرهای درآمد (997/0) و جمعیت شرکای تجاری (013/2)، پردرآمد بودن شرکای تجاری و مرز زمینی مشترک اثری مثبت و معنی‌دار و متغیرهای نرخ ارز (690/0-)، درآمد ایران (005/1-)، فاصله و بحران مالی جهانی اثری منفی و معنی دار بر تراز تجاری کشاورزی ایران داشته‌اند. 
بحث و نتیجه­گیری: پیشنهاد می‌شود که با توجه به معنی‌داری و تأثیر مثبت مرز زمینی مشترک، بازارهای کشورهای همسایه که از شباهت و نزدیکی بیشتری برخوردارند، در تقویت پیمان‌ها و اجرای استراتژی‌های تثبیت و توسعه بازار بیش از پیش مورد توجه قرار گیرند تا از این طریق امکان کاهش تعرفه‌ها و سایر هزینه‌های مبادله فراهم آید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

الگوی جاذبه؛ ترازتجاری؛ موافقتنامه تجارت ترجیحی؛ نرخ ارز

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effect of Membership in Trade Agreements on Iran's Agricultural Bilateral Trade Balance

نویسندگان [English]

Elham Mehrparvar Hosseini¹؛ Hamed Rafiee²؛ zeinab rostamzade³؛ milad aminizade⁴

¹1. PhD. in Agricultural Economics, University of Tehran

²Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, University of Tehran

³PhD. Candidate of Agricultural Economics, University of Tehran

⁴PhD. Candidate of Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad

چکیده [English]

Nowadays, the membership of countries in trade agreements has opened a new space for the economic movement of different countries by facilitating trade through deregulation, dismantling tariff and support borders, increasing integration of national and regional markets, and access to different markets. But for all the benefits stated for agreements in facilitating trade conditions, the state of trade balance between countries in different economic sectors following membership in the agreements is not clear. Therefore, in this article, the effect of Iran's membership in the agreements, the Global System of Trade Preferences and the Organization of Economic Cooperation on her agricultural trade balance with 45 major trading partners using the Gravity model in the period 2001-2017 has been investigated. According to the results, Iran's membership in trade agreements has significantly diminished Iran's agricultural trade balance. Also, the variables of income and population of trading partners and common land border have positive and significant effect and variables of exchange rate, Iranian income, distance and global financial crisis have negative and significant effect on Iran's agricultural trade balance.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Gravity model, Trade balance, Trade preference agreement, Exchange rate

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