اثر تخصیص منطقه‌ای منابع آب در شاخص یک‌پارچه آب – اقتصاد – محیط‌زیست بر رشد اقتصادی پایدار در استان‌های ایران

فصلنامه علمی مهندسی منابع آب

مقاله 4، دوره 16، شماره 59، بهمن 1402، صفحه 41-60   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/wej.2024.28987.2339

نویسندگان

محمد هادی اکبرزاده¹؛ مسعود خداپناه^{* 2}؛ منصور زراء‌نژاد³

¹دانشجوی دکتری رشته اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

²دانشیار رشته اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

³استاد تمام رشته اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

تاریخ دریافت: 26 شهریور 1400،  تاریخ بازنگری: 29 آذر 1400،  تاریخ پذیرش: 10 بهمن 1402 

چکیده

چکیده
مقدمه: هر چند همه صاحب­نظران اجماع کامل دارند که ورشکستگی آبی تبدیل به اساسی­ترین چالش پیش روی توسعه در ایران طی دهه­های آینده خواهد شد؛ هنوز یک سیستم یک­پارچه آب – اقتصاد – محیط­زیست برای تخصیص پایدار منابع آب و سیاست­گذاری منطقه­ای برای حل مشکلات آبی در کشور وجود ندارد. هدف این پژوهش بررسی اثر تخصیص منطقه­ای منابع آب در شاخص یک­پارچه آب – اقتصاد – محیط­زیست بر رشد اقتصادی منطقه­ای در استان­های ایران بوده است.
روش­: پس از تعیین شاخص یک­پارچه آب مجازی بر اساس آخرین ادبیات نظری و تجربی، شاخص یک­پارچه آب– اقتصاد–محیط­زیست برای سیاست­گذاری منطقه­ای آب در 31 استان کشور با استفاده از روش ارزیابی جامع فازی و رویکرد آنتروپی برآورد شده است. در حدود 55 عنوان داده برای برآورد شاخص یک­پارچه آب منطقه­ای استفاده شده است که این داده­ها از سالنامه­های آماری ملی و استانی، مرکز آمار ایران، وزارت صنعت، معدن و تجارت، آمارنامه بخش کشاورزی و موسسه تحقیقات فنی کشاورزی جمع­آوری شده و مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفته است. در نهایت، اثر تخصیص منطقه­ای منابع آب در شاخص یک­پارچه آب- اقتصاد- محیط­زیست بر رشد اقتصادی استان­های کشور با استفاده از روش گشتاورهای تعمیم­یافته (GMM) طی دوره زمانی 1397-1391 برآورد شده است.
یافته ­ها: در هر یک از استان­های کشور بسته به وضعیت قوت و ضعف آن استان در هر یک از ابعاد منابع آب، تکنولوژی و حمل و نقل، اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست­محیطی در شاخص آب- اقتصاد- محیط زیست، نیازمند اتخاذ رویکرد و سیاست­گذاری متناسب با شرایط خاص آن استان وجود دارد. افزون بر این، در نظر گرفتن سیستم­های یک­پارچه برای تخصیص منابع آب و به­کارگیری آن در قالب شاخص یک­پارچه آب- اقتصاد- محیط­زیست می­تواند اثری مثبت و معنادار بر رشد اقتصادی استان­های کشور داشته باشد. همچنین اثر مثبت و معنادار سرمایه انسانی، تشکیل سرمایه و امید به زندگی در رشد اقتصادی استان­های کشور تایید شد.
نتیجه­ گیری: نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که سیاست­گذاری در زمینه تخصیص منابع آب در ایران با هدف دستیابی به رشد اقتصادی باید به­صورت منطقه­ای و بر اساس یک شاخص یک­پارچه آبی- اقتصادی- زیست­محیطی صورت گیرد تا بتوان بر اساس ظرفیت­هایی آبی در هر استان سیاست­­گذاری­های آبی متناسب با وضعیت همان استان را انجام داد. افزون بر این، استان­های ضعیف در شاخص یک­پارچه منطقه­ای باید طی دوره بلندمدت فعالیت­های تولیدی بخش­های کشاورزی و صنایع دسته ­اول و دسته­ دوم از نظر آب­بری را تا حد امکان کاهش داده و کالاهای تولیدی آب­بر را از استان­های با وضعیت قوی از نظر شاخص یک­پارچه آبی- اقتصادی- زیست­محیطی منطقه­ای وارد کنند تا بتوانند فرآیند رشد اقتصادی خود را با وضعیت آبی- اقتصادی- اجتماعی و زیست­محیطی خود به شکلی پایدار سازگار کنند. 

کلیدواژه‌ها

شاخص یک پارچه؛ رشد اقتصادی؛ آنتروپی فازی؛ روش گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته (GMM)؛ استان های ایران

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Effects of Regional Water Resource Allocation in Integrated Water-Economy- Environment Index on Sustainable Economic Growth of Iranian Provinces

نویسندگان [English]

Mohammad Hadi Akbarzadeh¹؛ Masoud Khodapanah²؛ Mansour Zarra-Nezhad³

¹Ph.D. in Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

²Associate Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

³Professor of Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Social Sciences, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz, Ahvaz, Iran

چکیده [English]

Abstract
Introduction: Despite the consensus among all experts that water bankruptcy will be the main development challenge in Iran for the coming decades which can threat Iran's regional development and food security; there is still no integrated water-economy-environment index system for allocation of water resources in Iranian provinces. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of regional water resource allocation in integrated water-economy- environment index on the economic growth of Iranian provinces.
Methods: After determining the integrated regional water-economy-environment index based on the recent theoretical and empirical literature, the integrated regional index was estimated for water resource allocations in 31 Iranian provinces using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and improved entropy approach. About 55 data titles were collected from various databases including Provincial and National Statistical Yearbooks, Statistical Centre of Iran, Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade, Agricultural Statistical Yearbook, Agricultural Technical Research Institute. Finally, the effect of regional water resource allocations in water-economy-environment index on economic growth of Iranian provinces was estimated during the period from 2012 to 2018 using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach.
Findings: Estimation of the total index with 5 main components revealed that Gilan, Mazandaran, Chaharmahaal & Bakhtiari and Khuzestan provinces can be suggested as the most suitable provinces to implement domestic virtual water strategy. The final results proved that policy making for implementation of virtual water strategy should be conducted regionally and individually based on the status of each province in water-economy-environment components of regional integrated index. Finally, the results of the study indicated that integrated regional water-economy-environment index had a positive and significant effect on economic growth of Iranian provinces. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Integrated index, economic growth, entropy, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, generalized method of moments approach, Iranian provinces

مراجع

      1. Garrick DE, Hanemann M, Hepburn C. Rethinking the economics of water: An assessment. Oxford Review of                        Economic Policy. 2020 Jan 6;36(1):1-23. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/grz035

2. Madani K, AghaKouchak A, Mirchi A. Iran’s socio-economic drought: challenges of a water-bankrupt nation. Iranian studies. 2016 Nov 1;49(6):997-1016. DOI:https://doi.org/10.1080/00210862.2016.1259286
3. Hoekstra AY, Mekonnen MM. The water footprint of humanity. Proceedings of the national academy of sciences. 2012 Feb 28;109(9):3232-7. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1109936109
4. Mueller JT, Gasteyer S. The widespread and unjust drinking water and clean water crisis in the United States. Nature Communications. 2021 Jun 22;12(1):1-8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23898-z
5. Saatsaz M. A historical investigation on water resources management in Iran. Environment, Development and Sustainability. 2020Mar; 22(3):1749-85. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-018-00307-y
6. Dormido H. These Countries Are the Most at Risk From a Water Crisis, Bloomberg, August 2019, 8: 30. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-countries-facing-water-crisis/
7. Joodaki, G., Wahr, J., & Swenson, S. Estimating the human contribution to groundwater depletion in the Middle East, from GRACE data, land surface models, and well observations. Water Resources Research, 50(3), 2679-2692.  https://doi.org/10.1002/2013WR014633
8. Caldera U, Bogdanov D, Fasihi M, Aghahosseini A, Breyer C. Securing future water supply for Iran through 100% renewable energy powered desalination. IJSEPM [Internet]. 2019Sep.20 [cited 2021Sep.16]; 23. https://doi.org/10.5278/ijsepm.3305
9. Shalamzari, M., & Zhang, W. Assessing Water Scarcity Using the Water Poverty Index (WPI) in Golestan Province of Iran. Water, 2018Aug, 10(8), 1079. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10081079
10. Madani K. Water management in Iran: what is causing the looming crisis?. Journal of environmental studies and sciences. 2014 Dec; 4(4):315-28. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13412-014-0182-z
11. Merrett, S., Virtual Water and the Kyoto Consensus: A Water Forum Contribution. Water International, 2009Jan, 28(4), 540-542. https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060308691732
12. Ansink, E, Refuting Two Claims about Virtual Water Trade. Ecological Economics, 2010Aug, 69(10), 2027-2032. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.06.001
13. 13. Jia S, Long Q, Liu W. The fallacious strategy of virtual water trade. International Journal of Water Resources Development. 2017 Mar 4; 33(2):340-7. https://doi.org/10.1080/07900627.2016.1180591
14. Cui X, Wu X, He X, Li Z, Shi C, Wu F. Regional suitability of virtual water strategy: Evaluating with an integrated water-ecosystem-economy index. Journal of Cleaner Production. 2018 Oct 20;199:659-67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.07.192
15. J. Reimer. J, On the Economics of Virtual Water Trade. Ecological Economics, 2012Mar 75:135-139. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.01.011
16. Gawel, E, & Bernsen, K. What is wrong with Virtual Water Trading? On the Limitations of the Virtual Water Concept. Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy, 2013 Jan 1: 31(1), 168-181. https://doi.org/10.1068/c11168
17. Qudusi, H. & Davari H. Critical analysis of virtual water from a policy perspective. Water and Sustainable Development, 2016 Jan 1; 3 (1), 47-58. (In Persian). 10.22067/JWSD.V3I1.59520
18. Karandish F, Hogeboom RJ, Hoekstra AY. Physical versus virtual water transfers to overcome local water shortages: A comparative analysis of impacts. Advances in Water Resources. 2021 Jan 1;147:103811. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2020.103811
19. Kalantari K, Maknoon, R, Karimi, D. Establishment of legal framework for integrated water resources management in Iranian watersheds, Quarterly Journal of Leadership and Public Policy Studies. 2018 winter; 7(25), (In Persian). http://sspp.iranjournals.ir/article_29725.html
20. Allan, J.A, “Virtual Water”: A Long Term Solution for Water Short Middle Eastern Economies. British Association Festival of Science, Water and Development Session, University of Leeds, London, 1997, https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/'Virtual-water'%3A-a-long-term-solution-for-waterAllan/60329839f14f2bd2c2cdc6e00a3c1cf279703f99?sort=relevance
21. Allan J.A, Virtual Water - the Water, Food, and Trade Nexus. Useful Concept or Misleading Metaphor?, Water International, 2003Jan, 28:1, 106-113,  https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060.2003.9724812
22. Katyaini S, Barua A, Duarte R. Science-policy interface on water scarcity in India: Giving ‘visibility’to unsustainable virtual water flows (1996–2014). Journal of Cleaner Production. 2020 Dec 1;275:124059. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124059
23. Yang, H, Zehnder, A.J. Water Scarcity and Food Import: A Case Study for Southern Mediterranean Countries. World Development, 2002 Aug 3, 30, 1413-1430. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0305750X(02)00047-5
24. Wichelns D. Virtual water and water footprints do not provide helpful insight regarding international trade or water scarcity. Ecological Indicators. 2015 May 1; 52:277-83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.12.013
25. El-Sadek, A. Virtual Water: An Effective Mechanism for Integrated Water Resources Management. Agricultural Sciences. 2012 Jun; 2(03), 248. doi:10.4236/as.2011.23033
26. Gong, L, & Jin, C. Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation for carrying capacity of regional water resources. Water resources management. 2016 Sep 8; 23(12), 2505-2513. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-008-9393-y
27. Qasemipour, E, & Abbasi, A. Virtual water flow and water footprint assessment of an arid region: A case study of South Khorasan province, Iran. Water, 2019 Aug; 11(9), 1755. https://doi.org/10.3390/w11091755
28. Nasrollahi M, Khosravi H, Moghaddamnia A, Malekian A, Shahid S. Assessment of drought risk index using drought hazard and vulnerability indices. Arabian Journal of Geosciences. 2018 Oct;11(20):1-2. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-018-3971-y
29. Darbandsari P, Kerachian R, Malakpour-Estalaki S. An Agent-based behavioral simulation model for residential water demand management: The case-study of Tehran, Iran. Simulation Modelling Practice and Theory. 2017 Nov 1; 78:51-72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.simpat.2017.08.006
30. Pouran, R, Raghfar H, Ghasemi, A, & Bazazan, F. Calculating the economic value of virtual water using maximizing irrigation water efficiency approach", Iranian Journal of Water Economics, 2018 Spring; 6(21), pp. 189-212. (In Persian). doi: 10.22084/aes.2017.1803
31. Mousavi, S. N., Akbari, S. M. R., Soltani, Gh,. & M. Zarei. Virtual water, a new strategy to deal with water crisis, The First National Conference on Water Crisis Management, March 2010. (In Persian). https://www.sid.ir/fa/seminar/ViewPaper.aspx?ID=5009
32. Manshadi HD, Niksokhan MH, Ardestani M. A quantity-quality model for inter-basin water transfer system using game theoretic and virtual water approaches. Water Resources Management. 2015 Oct;29(13):4573-88. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-015-1076-x
33. Karamouz, M, Yazdi, M. S, Ahmadi, B, & Zahraie, B. A system dynamics approach to economic assessment of water supply and demand strategies. In World Environmental and Water Resources Congress 2011: Bearing Knowledge for Sustainability, pp. 1194-1203). https://doi.org/10.1061/41173(414)123
34. Hull V, Liu J. Telecoupling: A new frontier for global sustainability. Ecology and Society. 2018 Dec 12;23(4). http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ ES-05873-180226
35. Shannon, C. E. (2001). A Mathematical Theory of Communication. SIGMOBILE Mob Comput Commun Review. 2001 Jan; 5 (1): 3–55. https://doi.org/10.1145/584091.584093
36. Arya V, Kumar S. Multi-criteria decision making problem for evaluating ERP system using entropy weighting approach and q-rung orthopair fuzzy TODIM. Granular Computing. 2020 Nov 2:1-3.  https://doi.org/10.1007/s41066-020-00242-2
37. Wu, D. S, Feng, X, & Wen, Q. Q. The Research of Evaluation for Growth Suitability of Carya Cathayensis Sarg. Based on PCA and AHP. Procedia Engineering, 2011; 15, 1879-1883. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proeng.2011.08.350
38. Van der Voort N, Vanclay F. Social impacts of earthquakes caused by gas extraction in the Province of Groningen, The Netherlands. Environmental Impact Assessment Review. 2015 Jan 1; 50:1-5. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2014.08.008
39. Delgado A, Romero I. Environmental conflict analysis using an integrated grey clustering and entropy-weight method: A case study of a mining project in Peru. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2016 Mar 1; 77:108-21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.12.011
40. Talon A, Curt C. Selection of appropriate defuzzification methods: Application to the assessment of dam performance. Expert Systems with Applications. 2017 Mar 15; 70:160-74. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2016.09.004
41. Azadinejad, A., Amadeh, H., Emami Maibodi, A. Studying Factors Influencing Technical Efficiency of Industrial Sector Among Different Regions (With Data Envelopement Analysis). Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 2009; 49(1): 173-188. doi: 10.22059/jte.2014.50546
42. Majerník V. Entropy—A universal concept in sciences. Natural Science. 2014 Apr 25;2014. DOI:10.4236/ns.2014.67055
43. Zadeh LA. Fuzzy logic—a personal perspective. Fuzzy sets and systems. 2015 Dec 15; 281:4-20. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fss.2015.05.009
44. Hertel T, Liu J. Implications of water scarcity for economic growth. InEconomy-wide modeling of water at regional and global scales 2019 (pp. 11-35). Springer, Singapore.
45. Sarvin, Gh. , Sobhani R, Etaei S, Hosseini Z, Montaseri M. Development of hydro-social-economic-environmental sustainability index (HSEESI) in integrated water resources management. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment. 2021 Aug;193(8):1-29.
46. Qiao N, Fang L, Mu L. Evaluating the impacts of water resources technology progress on development and economic growth over the Northwest, China. PloS one. 2020 Mar 12; 15(3):e0229571.
47. Blundell R, Bond S. Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of econometrics. 1998 Nov 1; 87(1):115-43.
48. Arellano M, Bond S. Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The review of economic studies. 1991 Apr 1; 58(2):277-97.
49. Arellano M, Bover O. Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of econometrics. 1995 Jul 1; 68(1):29-51.
50. Ye W, Xu X, Wang H, Wang H, Yang H, Yang Z. Quantitative assessment of resources and environmental carrying capacity in the northwest temperate continental climate ecotope of China. Environmental Earth Sciences. 2016 May 1; 75(10):868.

   51. Shadman Roodposhti M, Aryal J, Shahabi H, Safarrad T. Fuzzy shannon entropy: A hybrid gis-based landslide                susceptibility mapping method. Entropy. 2016 Oct; 18(10):343.