اثرات کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت شکاف تکنولوژی بر تجارت بخش کشاورزی ایران و کشورهای طرف تجاری

فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

دوره 16، شماره 1، اردیبهشت 1403، صفحه 75-89   

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jae.2024.29428.2305

نویسندگان

حسن عسگری ثابت^{* 1}؛ رضا رستمیان²؛ یاسر فیض آبادی²

¹گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی- دانشکده تکمیلی- دانشگاه آزاد واحد قائمشهر

²استادیار دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد قائمشهر

تاریخ دریافت: 30 آبان 1400،  تاریخ بازنگری: 08 فروردین 1401،  تاریخ پذیرش: 10 اردیبهشت 1403 

چکیده

چکیده

بخش کشاورزی در ایران، به دلایلی همچون ارزآوری، تأمین امنیت غذایی و غیره، در قیاس با سایر بخش‌های اقتصادی کشور از نقشی بارز در عرصه اقتصادی برخوردار است. اما تولید در این بخش پیوسته در شرایط ناپایدار و دشواری قرار دارد. شکاف در پیشرفت تکنولوژیکی می‌تواند یکی از مهم‌ترین عوامل تعیین‌کننده تجارت دوجانبه و رشد اقتصادی بین کشورها باشد و می‌توان تکنولوژی را به‌عنوان راهکاری برای کاهش مخاطرات بکار گرفت. بنابراین هدف مطالعه حاضر بررسی اثرات کوتاه‌مدت و بلندمدت شکاف تکنولوژی بر تجارت بخش کشاورزی ایران و کشورهای طرف تجاری بوده است. برای این منظور بر اساس مدل جاذبه و با استفاده از روش ARDL در داده‌های پنل مسئله پژوهش بررسی شد. در این راستا داده‌های 57 کشور طرف تجاری ایران در بخش کشاورزی برای دوره 2001 تا 2018 جمع‌آوری شد. نتایج پژوهش بر اساس چهار شاخص شکاف تکنولوژی کل، هزینه‌های تحقیق و توسعه، برنامه‌های ثبت اختراع و محققان تحقیق و توسعه بیانگر آن است که شکاف تکنولوژی در بلندمدت بر تجارت بخش کشاورزی اثر مثبت و معنادار دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

شکاف تکنولوژی؛ تجارت بخش کشاورزی؛ مدل جاذبه؛ رویکرد PMG

عنوان مقاله [English]

Short-term and long-term effects of the technology gap on trade between Iran's agricultural sector and trading partner countries

نویسندگان [English]

Hassan asgarisabet¹؛ Reza rostamian²؛ yaser feizabadi²

¹department of agricultural economy- Ghaemshahr Azad Universty

²Assistant Professor of Islamic Azad University Ghaemshahr

چکیده [English]

Abstract

The agricultural sector in Iran, for reasons such as currency exchange, food security, etc., in comparison with other economic sectors of the country has a significant role in the economic field. But production in this sector is constantly in an unstable and difficult situation. The gap in technological progress can be one of the most important determinants of bilateral trade and economic growth between countries, and technology can be used as a way to reduce risks. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the short-term and long-term effects of the technology gap on trade between Iran's agricultural sector and trading countries. For this purpose, based on the gravity model and using the ARDL method in the panel data, the research problem was investigated. In this regard, data from 57 Iranian trading partners in the agricultural sector for the period 2001 to 2018 were collected. The results of the research based on the four indicators of total technology gap, research and development costs,

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

Keywords: Technology Gap, Agricultural Trade, Gravity Model, PMG Approach

مراجع

1- Acemoglu D, Philippe A, Fabrizio Z. “Distance to Frontier, Selection, and Economic Growth,” Journal of the European Economic Association 4:1 (March 2006): 37–74.

2- Adanacioglu H. The futures market in agricultural products and an evaluation of the attitude of farmers: a case study of cotton producers in Aydin province in Turkey. Economie Agriculture et Environment, 2011, 10(2), 58.

3- Aghion Ph, et al. The Effects of Entry ON Incumbent Inovation and Productivity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2009: 91(1): 20–32.

4- Aghion, Philippe, Christopher Harris, Peter Howitt, Vickers J. “Competition, Imitation and Growth with Step-by-Step Innovation,” Review of Economic Studies 68:3 (July 2001), 467–492.

5- Ahmed A, Uddin GS, Sohag K. Biomass energy, technological progress and the environmental Kuznets curve: Evidence from selected European countries. Biomass and Bioenergy, 2016, 90, 202-208.

6- Amini Zadeh M, Rafiee H, Reeyahi A, Mehrparvar Hoseini, A. Assessing the Role of Institutional Quality of Iran and its Trade Partners on Iran’s, Agricultural Products Exports, Journal of Agricultural Research and Development. 2020, 51(2), 1-13, https://doi.org/10.22059/ijaedr.2019.258788.668610

7- Bernard AB, Jensen JB, Lawrence RZ. Exporters, jobs, and wages in US manufacturing: 1976-1987. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. Microeconomics, 1995, 67-119.

8- Brodzicki T, Sledziewska K. The role of technology gap in the trade of Poland: Panel estimation in the gravity framework. International Business and Global Economy. 2016: 35(1): 325–341.

9- Brodzicki T. The role of technology gap in the trade of Poland. Panel estimation in the gravity framework. Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, 2016, 41, 127-144.

10- Brodzicki T, Kwiatkowski J. An empirical investigation into the role of technology gap in the trade relations of the EU member states. Entrepreneurial Business and Economics Review, 2018, 6(2), 111-135.

11- Chandio AA, Jiang Y, Rehman A. Using the ARDL-ECM approach to investigate the nexus between support price and wheat production: an empirical evidence from Pakistan. Journal of Asian Business and Economic Studies. 2019.

12- Demetriades P, Hook Law S. Finance, institutions and economic development. International journal of finance & economics, 2006, 11(3), 245-260.

13- Esmaili S,  Ghahremanzadeh M, Mahmodi A,   Mehrara M, Yavari Gh. The Impact of Exchange Rate and Oil Price Fluctuations on Iran's Agriculture Trade Balance: Application of the J Curve Approach, Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development, 2020: 34(2), 179-200. https://doi.org/10.22067/jead2.v34i2.85637

14- Farzam V, Ansari H, Mahmoodi Z. Investigating the short-term and long-term effects of exchange rates on bilateral trade between Iran and its European and Asian partners. Financial and Economic Policy Quarterly. 2017: 5(19), 81-103.

15-Ghazem Nejad Z. The effect of information and communication technology on international trade: evidence from selected countries, Master's thesis, Administrative Sciences and Economics, Mazandaran University, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, 2018.

16- Jani S. Analyzing Market Structure Influence on Technology Gap in Iranian Manufactures. Quarterly journal of economic research and policies, 2016: 23 (76). http://qjerp.ir/article-1-1222-fa.html

17- Khadiv Y. Estimating the Commercial Potential between Iran and the D-Hasht Group, Using the Ggravity Model, Using the Spatial GMM Method, Master’s Thesis of Economic Sciences, Ilam University, Faculty of Literature and Humanities, 2018.

18- Khorrami Sh, Raheli H, Bayazid D. Identifying and Categorizing Factors Affecting the Prosperity of eE-Commerce for Agricultural Products with Emphasis on Agricultural Sustainability, Agricultural, Knowledge and Ssustainable Production. 2020: 30(3), 253-266.19- Kubielas S. Innowacje i luka technologiczna w gospodarce globalnej opartej na wiedzy. Strukturalne i makroekonomiczne uwarunkowania. Warszawa: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego. 2011.

20- Malikane C, Chitambara P. Foreign direct investment, productivity and the technology gap in African economies. Journal of African Trade, 2017, 4(1-2), 61-74.

21- Mayer-Foulkes D. Human development traps and economic growth. 2005.

22- Mensah IA, Sun M, Gao C, Omari-Sasu AY, Zhu D, Ampimah BC, Quarcoo A. Analysis on the nexus of economic growth, fossil fuel energy consumption, CO2 emissions and oil price in Africa based on a PMG panel ARDL approach. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019, 228, 161-174.

23- Mohammadi T. A common error in the application of time series models: incorrect application of the ARDL model. Iranian Economic Research Quarterly. 2011: 47(16), 163-183.

24- Moradpouravladi M, Mohseni Ebrahim M, Torkaman M. Development of Financial Markets and Energy Demand in Iran (1980-2007), Iranian energy economy research journal, 2013: 2(5), 187-209.

25- Munir Q, Lean HH, Smyth R. CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in the ASEAN-5 countries: A cross-sectional dependence approach. Energy Economics, 2020: 85, 104571.

26- Nofarsti, M. The root of unity and collectiveness in econometrics. Tehran: Rasa Cultural Services. 1399.

27- Ohadi S, Tayyebi K, Vaez M. The Eeffect of Technology Gap on Iran's Bilateral Ttrade Relations: a Quasi-Parametric Approach. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Modeling. 2017: 8(31):1-26.

28- Pesaran MH, Shin Y. An autoregressive distributed lag modelling approach to cointegration analysis. 1995.

29- Pesaran MH, Shin Y, Smith RJ. Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 2001: 16(3), 289-326.

30- Pesaran MH, Shin Y, Smith RJ. “Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationship.” Journal of Applied, 2004: 16: 289-326.

31- Pesaran MH, Smith LV, Yamagata T. Panel unit root tests in the presence of a multifactor error structure. Journal of Econometrics, 2013, 175(2), 94-115.

32- Porteous O. Trade and agricultural technology adoption: Evidence from Africa. Journal of Development Economics, 2020, 144, 102440.

33- Sakhi FF, Mohammadi H, Fattahi Ardakani, A. Factors affecting the type of contract for the sale of agricultural products (case study: cotton product of Gonbad Kavos city), Agricultural Economics Research, 2020: 12(1), 1-24.

34- Shirsath PB, Aggarwal PK. Trade-Offs between Agricultural Production, GHG Emissions and Income in a Changing Climate, Technology, and Food Demand Scenario. Sustainability, 2021, 13(6), 3190

35- Viner J. Studies in the theory of international trade. Routledge. 2016.

36- Yotov YV, Piermartini R, Monteiro JA, Larch M. An advanced guide to trade policy analysis: The structural gravity model. Geneva: World Trade Organization. 2016.

37- Zeraat Pishe M. Investigating the effect of information and communication technology on foreign trade of member countries of the D-8 group using the gravity model, Master's thesis, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabatabai University, 2015.