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دیلمی, ابوالفضل, جولایی, رامتین. (1403). ارزیابی تاثیر عوامل اقلیمی و غیر اقلیمی بر تولید غلات: شواهد تجربی از ایران. دوماهنامه علمی - پژوهشی رهیافتی نو در مدیریت آموزشی, 16(3), 1-20. doi: 10.30495/jae.2024.32138.2390
ابوالفضل دیلمی; رامتین جولایی. "ارزیابی تاثیر عوامل اقلیمی و غیر اقلیمی بر تولید غلات: شواهد تجربی از ایران". دوماهنامه علمی - پژوهشی رهیافتی نو در مدیریت آموزشی, 16, 3, 1403, 1-20. doi: 10.30495/jae.2024.32138.2390
دیلمی, ابوالفضل, جولایی, رامتین. (1403). 'ارزیابی تاثیر عوامل اقلیمی و غیر اقلیمی بر تولید غلات: شواهد تجربی از ایران', دوماهنامه علمی - پژوهشی رهیافتی نو در مدیریت آموزشی, 16(3), pp. 1-20. doi: 10.30495/jae.2024.32138.2390
دیلمی, ابوالفضل, جولایی, رامتین. ارزیابی تاثیر عوامل اقلیمی و غیر اقلیمی بر تولید غلات: شواهد تجربی از ایران. دوماهنامه علمی - پژوهشی رهیافتی نو در مدیریت آموزشی, 1403; 16(3): 1-20. doi: 10.30495/jae.2024.32138.2390

ارزیابی تاثیر عوامل اقلیمی و غیر اقلیمی بر تولید غلات: شواهد تجربی از ایران

فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی
مقاله 1، دوره 16، شماره 3، آبان 1403، صفحه 1-20    اصل مقاله (1.71 M)
نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی
شناسه دیجیتال (DOI): 10.30495/jae.2024.32138.2390
نویسندگان
ابوالفضل دیلمی1؛ رامتین جولایی* 2
1فارغ التحصیل کارشناسی ارشد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران
2دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان، گرگان، ایران
تاریخ دریافت: 22 تیر 1402،  تاریخ بازنگری: 16 شهریور 1402،  تاریخ پذیرش: 02 خرداد 1403 
چکیده
مقدمه و هدف: تولید و مصرف غلات به صورت پایدار، انعطاف‌پذیری و استقلال بیشتری را در تأمین امنیت غذایی فراهم می‌کند. از این رو، توجه به توسعه کشاورزی در زمینه تولید غلات به منظور تأمین نیازهای غذایی جوامع بسیار ضروری است. با این حال، تغییرات اقلیمی و عوامل غیر اقلیمی، چالش‌هایی را برای حفظ و افزایش تولید غلات ایجاد کرده‌اند.
مواد و روش­ها: تحقیق حاضر با استفاده از روش ARDL و با بررسی دوره زمانی 2020-1990، به ارزیابی تأثیر عوامل اقلیمی (دما، بارش و انتشار دی­اکسید کربن) و غیر اقلیمی (اعتبارات بخش کشاورزی، سطح زیر کشت غلات و مصرف کودهای شیمیایی) بر تولید غلات در ایران پرداخته است. 
یافته ­ها: رویکرد آزمون­های کرانه­های ARDL یک رابطه هم­انباشتگی بلندمدت معتبر بین متغیرها را تأیید کردند. نتایج حاصل از تحقیق نشان می‌دهد که افزایش دما و بارش می‌تواند باعث افزایش تولید غلات شود، در حالی که انتشار CO2 باعث کاهش تولید غلات می‌گردد. همچنین، اعتبارات بخش کشاورزی، سطح زیر کشت غلات و مصرف کودهای شیمیایی نیز تأثیر مثبتی بر تولید غلات دارند.
بحث و نتیجه ­گیری: سیاست‌گذاری‌هایی که به منظور حمایت از بخش کشاورزی و جذب سرمایه در این حوزه طراحی می‌شوند، از اهمیت بالایی برخوردارند و افزایش اعتبارات تخصیص یافته به بخش کشاورزی و تشویق به گسترش سطح زیر کشت غلات می­تواند به افزایش تولید غلات در ایران منجر شود. همچنین، جهت سازگاری با تغییرات اقلیمی، باید به جوامع کشاورز اطلاعاتی در مورد تأثیرات این تغییرات و راهکارهای مقابله با آن‌ها ارائه شود تا بتوانند با این چالش‌ مواجه شوند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
تولید غلات؛ عوامل اقلیمی؛ انتشار دی‌اکسید کربن؛ اعتبارات کشاورزی
عنوان مقاله [English]
Assessing the Impact of Climatic and Non-climatic Factors on Cereal Production: Empirical Evidence from Iran
نویسندگان [English]
Abolfazl Deylami1؛ Ramtin Joolaie2
1Master of Agricultural Economics, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources
2Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources
چکیده [English]
Introduction: Ensuring food security and maintaining and increasing food production in Iran, as one of the main goals of agricultural policies, are of great importance. However, climate change and non-climatic factors pose challenges to maintaining and increasing cereal production.
Materials and Methods: The present study evaluates the impact of climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, and carbon dioxide emissions) and non-climatic factors (agricultural credits, land under cereal production, and fertilizer consumption) on cereal production in Iran using the ARDL approach by examining the time period of 1990-2020.
 Findings: The ARDL Bound test, confirms a valid long-term relationship between the variables. The results of the study show that an increase in temperature and precipitation can lead to an increase in cereal production, while CO2 emissions lead to a decrease in cereal production. Moreover, agricultural credits, land under cereal production, and fertilizer consumption also have a positive impact on cereal production.
Conclusion: The policies designed to support the agricultural sector and attract investment in this area are of great importance. Increasing the allocation of credits to the agricultural sector, encouraging the expansion of cereal cultivation, and the use of improved seeds can lead to an increase in productivity and cereal production in Iran. Also, in order to adapt to climate change, agricultural communities need to be provided with information about its impacts and mitigation measures so that they can face these challenges and increase agricultural productivity by utilizing the positive potential created.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
cereal production, climate factors, carbon dioxide emissions, agricultural credits
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